Their book coins the term “The Productivity Bandwagon”: the idea that technological progress will always lift all boats. Economists tend to think this way: as firms try to hire more workers, they will increase wages. However, history suggests the bandwagon is not guaranteed 2/6
To secure shared prosperity you need two things: (1) Technology has to improve workers’ productivity, and (2) workers must benefit from that productivity. Often the coercive structure of the economy prevents workers from doing so, even if they were more productive 3/6
Innovation can be redirected. We must focus on “Machine Usefulness” rather than “Machine Intelligence”, and steer tech towards creating new tasks for workers and improving their skills and knowledge. AI has an unparalleled ability to do so and complement knowledge work 4/6
Do we truly need Big Tech? Market trends have led to huge LLM models, trained on the entire internet, aiming to dominate the search market. The alternative: smaller scale models that are more domain-specific, which would have been much more open for many companies to enter 5/6
Kevin Bryan's "User Guide to LLM and GPT for Economists"
Summary thread:
6 takeaways: (1) Controlling the output of LLMs is difficult, (2) the “Raw” ChatGPT online is far from state of the art, (3) hallucinations are mostly fixable, (4) the technology' rate of improvements is fast,
(5) most use cases for economists require using API+code (this will give you much more control on the output), (6) it is cheap to do so
The main uses for economists are: (1) cleaning data, (2) programming/making graphs, (3) spelling checks, (4) summarizing literature
The Fed took aggressive action today to prop up U.S. businesses, but these policies won’t necessarily reach small and medium-size enterprises (SMEs). This is a thread on why and what could help. Our latest proposal focuses on SMEs: scholar.princeton.edu/markus/news/co…
The Fed’s usual “capital markets approach” doesn’t reach SMEs. Most small business funding relies on banks and trade-credit (FinTech covers only 10%), and most SME loans are not securitized and traded, but held to maturity and not traded on the secondary market.
What can be done next as the Fed looks to help Main Street? The Fed should “evergreen” existing SME loans by offering banks low-cost refinancing against the collateral of existing loans that are refinanced.
🦠#CoronaCrisis crisis & European Economy: (1/6)
What's good for 🇩🇪Germany, should be good for 🇪🇺Europe
German initiative of
(a) Kurzarbeit (gov. covers part of wage bill) [transfers to firms/workers] and
(b) Liquidity bazooka = low-interest credit for debt re-payment
(2/6) Credit is granted to firms by (national) fiscal authority for x, say 7, years.
Why tax authority? Tax authority can enforce repayment (together with tax collection) + senior of credit status for gov. => limits credit risk
(credit is as safe as 'tax credit')
(3/6) @EIB grants funds to national authority and issues bonds to sovereign wealth funds, @ECB, @ESM, etc.
🇪🇺 @EIB is the European equivalent to 🇩🇪German development bank @KfW