Omid Malekan 🧙🏽‍♂️ Profile picture
Jun 15, 2023 14 tweets 4 min read Read on X
The FT story on Hong Kong regulators pressuring banks to onboard crypto companies is revealing on two fronts. The first is the obvious one, China is pivoting hard into crypto. Image
This comes as a surprise to people who thought China "banned" crypto but that's a misunderstanding of how the CCP operates.

It was never about banning, but exerting control over a new industry. This is how State Capitalism works.
Freshly mined Bitcoin as moved through OTC trading desks became a bit too popular for evading capital controls, so the government "banned" mining: scmp.com/economy/china-…
But there were still anecdotal reports about a thriving crypto industry in China, including mining! Today China is widely believed to be #2 in mining with ~20% of global hashrate.

Obviously the CCP knows about this. And likes it.
More importantly they are using Hong Kong to embrace crypto in new ways: exchanges, stablecoins, etc. Why? Because they see that crypto is the future.

And because America is trying to kill it. The Biden admin's bumbling crackdown is the best advertising campaign.
America has a chokehold on global finance -> America hates crypto -> crypto must be a disruptive threat -> the rest of the world wants it.

The more America cracks down, the stronger the incentive for everyone else to adopt, particularly geopolitical rivals.
The second part of the FT story is how big banks remain hesistant to onboard crypto, even after their regulators told them they should.

This is not surprising. America's chokehold on global finance is enforced via the banking system. Image
This is why people like Jamie Dimon and Warren Buffet (major shareholder of multiple big banks) hate crypto. Decentralization threatens their source of power and wealth. fortune.com/2023/02/24/cry…
Bankers repeat the canard of "crypto is used for money laundering." But that's BS. Big banks are the preferred way to wash money.

Billions of dollars move through the likes of JPM and StanChart annually. It's easier to commit crimes through banking than Bitcoin. Image
Just google the fines big banks pay regularly, they are jaw dropping, but nobody bats an eye. AML fines are part of the cost of doing business. Image
So why do the regulators and politicians tolerate this? Because they too are playing a game. They don't actually care about money laundering, they care about having boogymen to campaign against and slap with fines to fund government bureacry.
It's all ridiculous. Wells Fargo was just fined $3.7B for some really shady shit, and nobody blinks an eye. @SenWarren and @BradSherman yell at bank CEOs on TV, but it's just an act.

The Feds could break up Wells or pull its licenses but this will never happen. Image
In fact with every passing crisis, supposedly anti-banking politicians like the current admin go out of their way to make Too Big To Fail (or stop money laundering) banks even bigger.

Obama did it in 09, Biden in 23. Image
Crypto violates this narrative on multiple fronts. That's why Chokepoint 2.0 happened, why they loved SBF and why Gary is doing what he's doing.

But it won't work because crypto is global. And the rest of the world sees the opportunity.

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More from @malekanoms

Jun 19, 2023
A lot of people don't know this, but financial markets and banks don't close on nights, weekends and holidays to let people rest.

They close because the architecture of their underlying systems are the same as when everything was still analogue.
T+2 settlement for certain capital markets or delays in payments are vestiges of an outdated system.

They are comical given the progress the rest of the economy has made. You can get a couch delivered on Sunday, but not your money!
TradFi folks will tell you about the progress being made with solutions like SWIFT GPI, FedNow or T+1 settlement in US stocks. And they are right, these are major undertakings.

But they are the equivalent of faster fax machines in the late 90s. Or landlines with call waiting.
Read 9 tweets
Jun 18, 2023
Here's another tell that crypto is going to matter: the same types of people who told us it was dangerous because it as unregulated are not saying it will be more dangerous if it is regulated. In the WSJ: Image
Reminds me of when Bitcoin haters switched from "but all the mining is in China" to " China just banned mining!" as their preferred critique,
Regulating crypto = bad FUD is only going to increase. I particularly like the argument that crypto is just gambling and speculation, not finance. Apparently nobody on Wall Street ever gambles!

Read 4 tweets
May 26, 2023
I often wonder whether Bitcoiners like @saylor or @jackmallers actually use the Lightning Network. It's not the panacea they promise, and due to certain technical and financial limitations, it never will be. Understanding why is important to the future of Bitcoin, so a 🧵
P2P Channels are at the heart of LN. You can send a payment to anyone you open a channel with on the main chain, up to the amount of you lock up. But this introduces a major cost of capital constraint. Everything is pre-funded, so more channels = more locked up BTC.
The genius of LN is the ability to securely route payments through other channels. You have a channel with Bob and he has one with Alice, so you don't need a channel with Alice. So far so good. But what if Bob doesn't have a channel with all the other people you'd like to pay?
Read 14 tweets
May 6, 2023
Really enjoyed the OddLots interview of
@nic__carter by @TheStalwart and
@tracyalloway but I want to pushback on the point that Bitcoin is a bad inflation hedge. It's based on a narrow view of what makes anything a good inflation hedge.

A thread:
The common critique of Bitcoin is that it lost value in 2022, a year of high inflation.

But if the definition of a good inflation hedge is "going up when the CPI is spiking" then the best hedge against dollar inflation last year was......the dollar!
That's because almost every asset class-- including stocks, bonds, gold, and real estate (via REITs)--fell in dollar terms. Image
Read 11 tweets
May 4, 2023
A good rule of thumb for understanding central banking is they create problems that they must expand their powers to fix.

The Fed started the regional banking crisis by exploding deposits during Covid, then rapidly hiking rates. Now it must announce a new facility to stop it.
The two most likely solutions are some kind of total deposit guarantee, and a regional TARP.

The deposit guarantee alone won’t stop the bleeding, money will keep going to money market funds for better yield.
That means they’ll have to do something to prop up the equity. Back in 08, the Troubled Asset Relief Program did the same. Originally meant to buy toxic assets, it morphed into a government hedge fund that bought bank stocks and warrants.
Read 8 tweets

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