Kos Palchyk 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Jun 15, 2023 9 tweets 6 min read Read on X
At least 38 days before the massive collapse of #KakhovkaDam, a wall adjacent to turbulent flow, broke apart:

A video by @InvestigatorUa from April 28th shows that a big chunk of a wall separating outflow of HPP and the Dam is half submerged in the water. Image
Another drone video from May 16th shows the same picture: section of that separator wall broke off.
Image
Just to have a separate source of confirmation: satellite images days before the collapse also clearly show that section of the wall broke apart.

(@Maxar 28th of May) Image
And it is quite a huge piece of concrete, so not an incident to be dismissed easily. Image
This could indicate that the "risberma" — a river-floor cover that is supposed to protect the underlying sand river floor from being washed out — is probably already damaged. ImageImageImage
The s-shaped roadway falling down days before the catastrophe — could be a continuation of this wash out process. Image
This could indicate that there were long-running issues in the dam integrity, that russia has been either criminally ignoring for over a month or willingly causing the catastrophe by overflowing the #KakhovkaReservoir and ill-maintaining the dam.
I haven't seen this evidence pointed out, so I'm highlighting it for further discussion.

I'm not an expert on dams, so relying on community's judgement of this: @gbrumfiel @davidhelms570 @Gergyl @BruckenRuski @novakakhovka_ua cc @RuslanLeviev

P.S.: how that wall is even called?
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More from @kddsky

Sep 6, 2023
It's been 3 months since the Kakhovka Dam breach.

I wrote an article about the events, diving into the details what could cause the breach and what was happening in the months preceding the tragedy:

I'll share highlights of the article in the thread:kakhovka-dam-breach.kospalchyk.me
In Feb 2022 ru occupied Kakhovka HPP and have been using it as their stronghold ever since, with gun points and artillery positions.

Some engineers from the native crew remained in the occupied city, continuing maintenance of the HPP, decently managing the 2022 Spring floods. Image
Dam maintenance quality drastically changes, when in Sep-Oct 2022 ru expells all remaining crew members who were capable of operating the dam.

Since that the dam management becomes reckless. A 8 month long drainage starts in Oct and ends only with the dam breach in June 2023:
Read 9 tweets
Jun 18, 2023
4 days before the #KakhovkaDam catastrophe, the s-bridge support frames started breaking up probably at the edge of dam's concrete foundation. It might indicate erosion. That's missing in the @nytimes article.

Ruined support frames:

(@Maxar May 28 & Jun 5, via @ChristopherJM) ImageImageImage
By these @planet images shared by @gbrumfiel it seems like the #3 support frame collapsed between 1-2 Jun, and #2 collapsed between 2-3 Jun
Roughly, there's 23 meters of dam downstream the sluice gates, after which sits a concrete stilling basin apron. And judging by this scheme — the weir and apron might be separate constructions.

And it seems like #2 and #3 support frames broke off around that weir-apron border. ImageImageImage
Read 8 tweets

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