Thread by @WillHayCardiff

I've had the strangest exchange with the Welsh Conservatives.

Long story short, they clearly have no idea how they will increase funding to the Welsh NHS.

Let me explain because we desperately need a credible opposition in🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿but this is as amateur as it is bizarre.

[Thread]

On June 12 WalesOnline published a special report on how the Welsh NHS had been underfunded for the past 12 years.

It looked at whether it was the Conservative UK Gov in London or the Labour Welsh Gov in Cardiff who were to blame.

You can see it here:
walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/…

The conclusion was it was both.

The UK Government cut Wales' funding and the Welsh Government has failed to pass on all the Barnett consequential from health to the Welsh health service.

After this the Tories emailed a press release saying that Welsh Labour were to blame and that "the Welsh Conservatives would fully fund our NHS"....

Right....

This is a big promise.

Given that the Welsh Tories are the largest opposition party in Wales, the promise to make up the health services funding shortfall is a really big deal.

This would be a real challenge financially because of how stretch the Welsh budget is.

So how would the Welsh Conservatives fulfil their promise?

To find out I went back and asked them.

I asked if they would be taking cash from housing or education to make up the shortfall as these are the two areas which are most inflated.

Within five minutes we had our answer which was a single sentence: "We’d scrap Labour’s huge list of vanity projects and bring financial prudency back to Wales, Will."

Hmmm, OK.

As this is not exactly heavy with detail I replied asking about these "vanity projects" saying: "Can you be specific so I can check if that will make up the funding shortfall?"

To this they replied with 17 "vanity projects" they would scrap to boost NHS funding.

Here they are are:

So now we have the list, would this add up to enough to give a sizable amount to the Welsh NHS?

The short answer is no.

There are some quite bizarre entries in here so let's break it down.

First, let's look at the entries that just make no sense....

-- Bryn Cegin and Technium Centres --
No money saved from the budget

Both these purchases of land were several decades ago. Bryn Cegln is a 90 acre industrial park in Bangor where plans were first submitted in 2000 whereas the Technium centres were in 2003.

The idea that the Tories could bank roll the Welsh NHS because they wouldn't have done projects that have already happened is bizarre.

-- Ebbw Vale cable car and Gilestone Farm--
No money saved from the budget

The Ebbw Vale cable car was a bit of a nightmare costing £2.3m and About £50k a year to run. It also broke down relentlessly (252 times in the first two years of operating).

However it was announced in April this year that it would be closing due to budget cuts so there will be no cost saving for the Welsh Government going forward.

The same applies to Gilestone Farm. It cost £4.25m and the purchase was criticised for being rushed.

However, this money is already spent and will create not extra money.

-- M4 relief road ‘planning’--
No money saved from the budget

The Tories say they wouldn't have wasted the money on planning for the M4 relief road which the Welsh Government cancelled.

However there are two issues here....

The first is that the Conservatives say the WOULD build the M4, therefore it stands to reason they would have spent money on the planning.

Plus all of this money has already been spent so there is no savings within the Welsh budget.

-- 'Roads scrapped after road review' --
No money saved

It is hard to see how building roads instead of scrapping them will actually save money going forward for the Welsh NHS.

--The Covid money sent back to UK Government--
No money saved

Though it was quite scandalous that Wales had over £150m reclaimed by the UK Government because Wales didn't spend it within a set financial year this doesn't make up any shortfall in the Welsh budget.

--Voting pilot--
No money saved

These pilots looked at how to increase turnout during the Local Government Elections in May 2022.. It cost £1.5m and all of that has already been spent so there will be no additional money for the Welsh NHS.

So now we have got through the madness of cancelling projects that have already happened, let's look at the ones that could save some money.

-- Cardiff Airport - £8m a year

Carwyn Jones paid £52m to nationalise Cardiff Airport in 2013.

It has proven increasingly unprofitable in recent years with over £40m in taxpayer loans written off by the Welsh Government since the purchase and a £42.6m grants facility created

Last year the Welsh Government gave the airport an £8.4m grant. It is impossible to say the costs of the airport in the future so we will use the £8.4m figure as a rough estimate. of a potential saving.

Expansion of the Senedd - £12m

The plan to increase the number of Senedd members is est to cost between £11.7m -£12.9m.

FThis figure is not only for members' salaries, it'dd also include pay for staff, running of elections and the upkeep of the parliament building and offices.

--Basic income pilot - £6.6m

From July last year more than 500 people leaving care in Wales have been offered £1,600 each month (before tax) for two years to support them as they make the transition to adult life.

The aim is to study what impact having this no-strings-attached cash will impact the life choices of these people. The scheme is £20m over the three years so about £6.6m a year.

--20mph zones- £7m

The creation of a 20mph speed limit will have a direct cost to the taxpayer (like changing road signs, markings and market campaign about the changes) of roughly £32.5 million between 2022-2027 but most will be incurred in the year proceeding the introduction.

However this cost will likely have ended by the time the of the next Senedd election so wouldn't really create any extra money.

But for arguments sake let's say it is £7m a year.

-- Constitutional Committee - £1.1m

The Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales was established by the Welsh Government to consider how to strengthen Welsh democracy and look at how to improve the constitutional set up of the UK.

It cost £1.1m last year but will conclude at the end of 2023.

If we assume that this money will not be allocated anywhere else it could be used to make up £1.1m in the health budget.

Procurement card waste - £800,000

More than £800,000 was spent on Welsh Government credit cards in 2021-22 — including almost £8,000 at a top restaurant. The figures also show thousands of pounds of taxpayers' money went towards luxury hotels.

If these were scrapped entirely it would save £800K. However the Welsh Government would argue much of this money is not wasted and any Conservative administration might find cutting it easier said than done.

Universal free school meals - £65m (though likely a fair bit less)

This is a Welsh Government and Plaid Cymru policy that will see all primary school children in Wales will get free school meals by 2024.

£260m has been committed to implement the programme over three years – although this includes around £60m of capital funding for local authorities to improve school kitchen facilities / purchasing equipment etc and won't be needed after a few years.

This policy will feed an extra 72,000 kids in first year alone.

It is important to bear in mind that £260m remaining would not all be recouped if the policy was reversed because there would still be money for children who are eligible for free school meals (just under 30%).

If we take off the £60m of capital spend & assume the full £200m remaining who go back to the taxpayer then we can say cancelling the scheme would save about £65m/year.

This doesn't take into account that it's likely £20m+ would still be going to the children who are eligible.

-- My Tree Our Forest - Not clear on the cost to taxpayer

It is hard to pin down an exact figure for the cost of offering ever household in Wales a free tree.

-- So how much money would the Tories actually save? --
Bearing in mind these are very rough estimates, the amount the Conservatives would save by getting rid of all these projects would be just over £100m (this is a high estimate).

This might sounds like a lot of money but it is only 1.1% of the current Welsh NHS budget and would only be enough to offer a 1% pay increase across the public sector in Wales.

We made this point to the Tories asking if this was in fact their plan to fully fund the Welsh NHS?

This was their response:

Despite the length of this statement, there is still no clarity on what the Welsh Conservatives would cut to make up for the Welsh NHS's shortfall. The Welsh Government's current overspend are on areas like education and housing but the Tories have made no commitment to cut them.

The argument that "we wouldn’t have put these proposals forward in the first place" has no bearing on future budgets if the Tories were to win at the next Senedd election.

It is therefore hard to not conclude that the Welsh Conservatives have no idea how they live up to their promise to "fully fund" the Welsh NHS.

Fully story here:
walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/…

Should clarify, the cable car is actually still open but is funded by the LA not WG