Thread by @ncdave4life

1/36 It's amazing how effective the Climate Industry has been at frightening people, beyond the capacity for rational thought. Rutger Bregman @rcbregman, though a smart fellow, is nevertheless "terrified" by a miniscule (≤1°C), completely harmless, sea surface temperature blip.

https://twitter.com/rcbregman/status/1668323521045331976

@rcbregman 2/ 1°C is the outdoor air temperature change ("climate change") you get from an elevation change of only about 500 feet. 🥱

(That's based on an average temperature vs. altitude "lapse rate" of 6.5°C/km; 1000 / 6.5 = 154 meters.)

@rcbregman 3/ At mid-latitudes, 1°C is about the temperature change you get from a latitude change of only 60 miles (100 km).

(How different are the flora and fauna 60 miles from where you live?)
sealevel.info/2015_zones_hig…

@rcbregman 4/ 1°C is less than the "hysteresis" (a/k/a "dead zone") in your home thermostat, which is probably 2-3°F. Your home's "constant" indoor temperatures are continually fluctuating that much, and you probably don't even notice it.

@rcbregman 5/ In the American Midwest, farmers can fully compensate for 1°C of climate change by adjusting planting dates by about six days.
• sealevel.info/des_moines_spr…
• sealevel.info/wichita_spring…

@rcbregman 6/ Growing ranges for most important crops include climate zones with average temperatures that vary by tens of °C. Major crops like corn, wheat, potatoes and soybeans are produced from Mexico to Canada. Compared to that, 1°C is negligible.
sealevel.info/wheat_growing_…

@rcbregman 7/ What's more, a fortuitous thing about global warming is that it isn't very global. It disproportionately warms frigid winter nights at high latitudes ("Arctic amplification"). The tropics warm less, which is nice, because they're warm enough already.
sealevel.info/learnmore.html…

@rcbregman 8/ By objective standards, most of the Earth is much too cold. That's why scientists call the periods of warmest climate Climate Optimums: because they are better than colder periods.

Cold kills far more people than heat does. Here's a paper:
thelancet.com/journals/lance…

@rcbregman 9/ This chart is from that paper:

sealevel.info/Gasparrini2015…

The blue bars are excess deaths due to cold weather, in various countries. The red & orange bars are excess deaths due to hot weather. Even in tropical Thailand there are far more excess deaths from cold than from heat.

@rcbregman 10/ Even at low latitudes cold kills more people than heat does. But at high latitudes the disparity is enormous. This is for the UK:
sealevel.info/Gasparrini2022…

@rcbregman 11/ CO2 emissions are extremely beneficial for agriculture. If you care whether or not people starve, you ought to be thankful for rising CO2 levels. As CO2 levels rise, crop yields improve, and drought impacts diminish.
co2coalition.org

@rcbregman 14/ Crop yields have risen dramatically (though crackpot Dutch politicians seem determined to reverse that trend, by curtailing agriculture and restricting fertilizer use).
● ourworldindata.org/grapher/cereal…
● ourworldindata.org/famines
● sealevel.info/OurWorldInData…

@rcbregman 15/ Modern ag-tech, including fertilizers, get credit for much of the crop yield improvement. But another important reason is rising CO2 levels. Here's a study:
nber.org/papers/w29320

@rcbregman 16/ Here's an excerpt:

"We consistently find a large CO2 fertilization effect: a 1 ppm increase in CO2 equates to a 0.4%, 0.6%, 1% yield increase for corn, soybeans, and wheat, respectively."

That's HUGE!

Note: We've raised CO2 by 140 ppmv (50%) so far.
sealevel.info/co2.html

@rcbregman 17/ Also, elevated CO2 makes plants more water-efficient & drought-resilient, by improving CO2 stomatal conductance relative to transpiration. That's long-settled science among agronomists (though most climate scientists are apparently unfamiliar with it).

https://twitter.com/ncdave4life/status/1296144881849643010

@rcbregman 18/ Here's a paper about wheat:
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26929390

@rcbregman 19/ Here's how eCO2 benefits corn (which, significantly, is a C4 crop):
tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.108…

20/ Elevated CO2 ("eCO2") is especially beneficial for legumes, like beans, peas, and alfalfa, which are grown for their protein content. So eCO2 helps mitigate protein shortages in poor countries. Here's a paper:
frontiersin.org/articles/10.33…

21/ Thousands of studies show that elevated CO2 is beneficial for ALL major crops.
co2science.org/data/plant_gro…
CO2 levels are believed to have been well above the current 420 ppmv for >98% of Earth's history, without causing "runaway" warming, acidic oceans, or any other catastrophe.

22/ Improved global food security, in significant part thanks to the higher current CO2 level, is saving MANY lives.
sealevel.info/learnmore.html…

23/ Rising CO2 levels are also highly beneficial for natural ecosystems. They're greening the Earth, especially in arid regions, like the Sahel.
sealevel.info/learnmore.html…

24/ NASA measures the greening trend from satellites.

● sealevel.info/greening_earth…
● nasa.gov/feature/goddar…

25/ Here's NASA's video about it:

26/ Rising CO2 levels are helping to make famines rare for the first time in human history!

Famine is the Third Horseman of the Apocalypse. Throughout all of human history, famine (usually due to drought) was a Damoclean sword hanging over mankind — until now!!

27/ Ending famine is a VERY Big Deal, comparable to ending war and disease. Compare:

● Covid-19 killed 0.1% of world population.
● 1918 flu pandemic killed about 2%.
● WWII killed 2.7%.
● The near-global drought & famine of 1876-78 killed about 3.7% of the world population.

28/ When I was a child, horrific famines were often in the news, in places like Bangladesh. But Bangladesh and India now have food surpluses, every year.

Rising CO2 level is one of the major reasons.

sealevel.info/learnmore.html…

29/ Here's what manmade climate changes is doing in Africa. This is what climate activists are campaigning against:

“’Before, there was not a single scorpion, not a single blade of grass… Now you have people grazing their camel…"
sealevel.info/Owen2009_Sahar…

30/ Here's another article about it:

sealevel.info/Pearce2002_Afr…

31/ The major benefits of rising CO2 levels well-measured and extremely important. The major harms are all merely hypothetical, and mostly implausible.

sealevel.info/MSL_graph.php?…

sealevel.info/Dutch_dike_vs_…

32/ Contrary to Climate Industry propaganda, manmade climate change is not to blame for forest fires.

●

https://twitter.com/RossMcKitrick/status/1669704506622332929

● sealevel.info/learnmore.html…
● sealevel.info/NASA_building_…

33/ Nor is manmade climate change worsening storms.

sealevel.info/learnmore.html…

34/ The benefits of more CO2 are large & well-measured. The supposed harms are merely hypothetical, and mostly implausible.

None of the supposed major harms predicted to result from manmade climate change are actually happening.
sealevel.info/learnmore.html…

35/ The scientific evidence compelling that manmade climate change is modest and benign, CO2 emissions are highly beneficial, and the "social cost of carbon" is negative.

sealevel.info/negative_socia…

36/36 To understand a heavily politicized issue like climate change, you need balanced information. I'm here to help!

https://twitter.com/ncdave4life/status/1432810945017962505

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