Thread by @mrdowdeswell

Some #ComradesMarathon2023 statistics for all those of you with withdrawal symptoms (don't worry, next year's achey legs will be back soon enough).

16126 runners set out in the cold from the Pietermaritzburg City Hall this year. Some heard Max Trimborn's crow, some didn't...

The 16126 were made up of 12906 men and 3220 women (almost exactly 4:1 ratio). 4860 were youngsters (under 40), 7114 were veterans, 3345 were masters and 807 were grandmasters or older.

By the time the final gun went off in Kingsmead 12 hours later (under surreal circumstances, more on that later) they had been thinned to 14897 finishers (92.37% of starters); 11942 men (92.5%) and 2955 women (91.8%).

Age is not an advantage at Comrades, it would seem. 94.6% of runners under 40 finished, 93.3% of veterans finished, 90.3% of masters finished, and just 78.9% of grandmasters and older finished (including, of course, the remarkable Barry Holland for his 49th consecutive finish).

Tete Dijana won again in a new Down run record of 5:13:58; Gerda Steyn also won again in a new Down run record of 5:44:54.

The last woman, Siphiwe Dludla, crossed the line in 11:58:54 and the last man and final finisher of the #ComradesMarathon2023 , Tebello Skasa, crossed the line in 11:58:59.

Followed by 60 seconds of...well...no one. Until the final gun went off at 12:00:00 and the Last Post.

The average finish time for the class of 2023 was a pretty respectable 10:04:20.

09:57:31 was the average time for men,
10:31:51 was the average time for women.

Whilst men are faster than women, on average, there is a cool (if you're a statistician) real-world example of a near Simpson's paradox (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%2…) when you look at the average finish times for men and women *within each seeding group*.

Seed Women Men
A 7:07:13 7:20:10
B 8:16:11 8:20:30
C 9:05:03 9:13:18
D 9:51:23 10:03:44
E 10:51:34 10:59:09
F 10:38:52 10:41:47
G 11:05:30 11:09:58
H 11:29:43 11:27:42

So, how did finishers fare at #ComradesMarathon2023? What medals were earned from each seeding batch?

Here is a table summarising the medal distribution across each seeding batch (numbers are a count of runners).

(All Gold medallists came from A.)

Here is the same table, but with each row (i.e. seeding batch) converted to a percentage. So, for example, of starters in C batch, 32% earned a Robert Mtshali medal.

The light blue highlights in both tables indicate the most frequently earned medal for that seeding batch (row).

18 pairs of runners had splits that were never more than a second apart (and 77 "groups" had splits never more than two seconds apart). Not an easy feat over 88km.

17 of these pairs are legit (see next tweet), one pair are not - I'll forward this info to CMA/KZNA/ASA.

Amongst the legit pairs:

Susan Doubell turned 14096 Double Green, accompanied every step of the way by Green Number 25407, Amanda Bouwer.

Tumelo Kgwete (21577) and Bongani Letlaka (41837) ran side-by-side and step-for-step to bring in a Bill Rowan bus in 8:46.

Carlos Damico (51509) and Leonardo Linares (53543) travelled from Brazil together, joked on the route together, and finished together in 10:12:35.

Bongiwe (49401) and Siphelele (22577) Mhlongo ran together, held hands up Cowies, and finished arms around one another in 11:28:20.

On the other end of the spectrum are those that pull through a really tough day at Comrades to still finish.

The slowest pace for any split on the day, and still gutsing it out to the finish, was 15min/km from Drummond to Winston Park. Respect, Mthetheleli Zwane, on your finish.

Another heroic effort on the day from Australian Steven Currie, suffering through the biggest positive split on the day. By time he made Drummond in 4:00:18, his body was saying no more. His mind kept him putting one foot in front of the other for another 7:25:22 to earn a VC. 👊

#ComradesMarathon2023 was a negative split fest. Of course, the shorter distance played a role here.

2286 (15.3%) finishers ran negative splits!

Whilst 11.9% of men ran negative splits, 29.1% of women ran negative splits. Both of these percentages are higher than usual.

Here is how the entire field managed the race across the two halves. Each dot is a runner; men in blue, women in orange.

The biggest positive split on the day, Mr Currie 🦘, is top right. The race winner is the left-most dot, with an almost 11 minute negative split.

It is always very noticeable how evenly the race winners pace themselves, and how unevenly most of the rest of the (male) field paces themselves!

(Mea culpa: I was 42 minutes slower over the second half.)

What about the cut off situation?

How do people fare the closer they are to cut off times?

There were five cutoffs along the route at the #ComradesMarathon2023:
Cato Ridge at 4h30m,
Drummond at 6h10m,
Winston Park at 8h10m,
Pinetown at 9h20m,
Sherwood at 11h00m.

At Cato Ridge we see a profile that seems reasonable*. Most of the field is through 20 minutes before the cutoff. Not only do very few runners get through in the 10 minutes before the cutoff, only one of them earned a finish medal.

*Caveat at end!

At Drummond, things are getting a bit tighter. The number of runners over the mat is dropping off the closer to the cutoff, and the success rate of those that cross in the last 10 minutes (i.e. after 6 hours) is dropping towards zero*.

*Caveat at end!

On the Down run the section from Drummond to Winston Park is arguably the toughest. No one that went through this point within 10 minutes of the cutoff finished in 2023*.

Required cumulative pace to make it: ~8:30/km

*Caveat at end!

The drop down Fields into Pinetown usually corresponds to some faster running for most of the field. Still, this cutoff looks too stringent. The success rates for those that just make the cut are quite high still.

Required cumulative pace to make it: ~8:10/km

*Caveat at end!

Sherwood. This is not good. Of 1018 runners that crossed this mat within the 10 minutes before the cutoff, 1010 earned a finish medal. The success rates here are still way too high to be stopping runners. Something to be avoided in future.

Required pace to make it: ~8:07/km

If the Sherwood cutoff had been even 10 minutes later, there could have been 200 more finishers on the day. 😐

In reality, Pinetown cutoff should probably have been 10-15 minutes later, and Sherwood 15-20 minutes later.

This is why there was an empty field at 11:59:00.

*The Caveat At The End:

It is difficult to even assess the Drummond & Winston Park cutoffs properly, based on the 2023 experience, since the success rates there are affected by the inappropriate Sherwood (and Pinetown) cutoffs, which didn't account for the shorter race distance.

A big event like @ComradesRace has many moving parts, with many people involved in different aspects. It is unfortunate when things like this happen, but I hope it will be a lesson learnt and better incorporated into future planning.