Paul Nuki Profile picture
Jun 19 14 tweets 5 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
The #CovidInquiry came roaring to life today and claimed its first victim.

The sad unfortunate was tortured over several hours before being chopped into little pieces.

But the victim in question was NOT David Cameron. Now read on....
Dave did appear but the KC was, rightly, not going to waste her energy.

He's done more to damage Britain than any other PM and everyone knows that.

He said he gave us austerity so there was money "in the pot" for things like Covid.

Shortly after, he was quietly ushered out. Image
No, the real victim of today's proceedings was this poor chap - Sir Chris Wormald, perm sec of the Department of Health and Social Care.

He took a kicking the likes of which I've not seen before at an Inquiry - and one that both he and DHSC richly deserve. Image
First, he was asked about a Sept 2016 Departmental Board meeting at which there was to be a "deep dive" into some of the most "grave risks" the UK faced, including a pandemic. Image
The board had no legal clout but that was Ok because the Sec of State, one Jeremy Hunt, did and he was supposed to be there.

Alas, just as he would go missing in the middle of Exercise Cygnus a few months later, HUNT was AWOL.

And the Board was angry about it... Image
Why? Because they were dealing with some serious s**t. Huge numbers sick, an economic cost estimated at 71 times higher than the £28bn mentioned in the nation's pandemic plan, school closures etc... Image
And the country was not prepared for any of it.

Even a "moderate pandemic would over run the system", said the declassified docs. In the extreme, "quarantine" (ie lockdown) might be even be needed.

So, yes, the Board had good reason to be angry Hunt was not there.. Image
No surprise then that the KC for the Inquiry should ask poor old Sir Chris: "What steps did you take to ensure the Sec of Sate attend future Board Meetings addressing matters of the highest importance?"
"I don't recall" stammered Sir Chris, who had clearly done sod all. He had "no record" of doing anything. Pushed on whether he had even raised it with Hunt the answer was no. Why? "I cannot remember my thought process at the time", he dissembled. Image
There was worse to come.
DHSC's entire strategy was up the swanny. They knew a CoV could be been huge - it was in the risk assessment - but they only had a pandemic plan for flu. And this despite knowing the features of any new pathogen could not be known in advance Image
Sir Chris was stuck. None of it made sense. The flu plan had no serious measures to stop it because flu spread so fast but how could you know that when you accepted the characteristics of a new flu bug could not be known in advance?
And why if emerging infectious diseases like CoVs could be catastrophic for the UK, as the risk resister showed, did they only estimate the maximum number of deaths at a few thousand? Image
Perhaps sensing his career was already over, Sir Chris finally spilled the beans. It will not go down well with Hunt, Cameron et al because it kicks their get out of jail card from under them, but it is at least the truth...
The 2011 pandemic flu plan, said Sir Chris, was our only pandemic plan and always intended for other bugs like Covid.

The thinking went like this: "If we're ready for flu we're ready for anything", he told the Inquiry.

And the terrible error in this? Well, it was wrong.

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More from @PaulNuki

Jun 20
Before we get to not so gorgeous George Osborne, it's worth a brief reflection on Oliver Letwin's evidence of this morning.

It might be summed up as the *good chap* theory of disaster planning.... Image
Now Oliver is a fine sort of fellow, astute and reflective, and it would be unfair to twat him about the head too hard, even when he's made a right Horlicks of things, as appears to be the case with getting the nation ready for Covid 19.
The KC was gentle and, after establishing Oliver's modus operandi - to be bloody nice to people and they'll be nice to you - he focused on two key issues ...
Read 11 tweets
Jun 14
Thread: 1/x

I've spent much of the past month talking to people about GISAID and the stonking great row surrounding it.

It's a tad esoteric but I guarantee you it's important - something that could impact us all.

It's also an amazing story...

telegraph.co.uk/global-health/…
First up, and for the puerile among you (JB), it's pronounced GIS-AID, not JIZ-AID.

Second, it's a crucial component of health security. If you believe good surveillance is our first line of defence against a new pathogen of pandemic potential, then GISAID is our shield. Image
On this, all agree. It's the “go-to” repository for the code of most new nasties. H5N1, MERS, Covid... they're all there. It houses 15m sequences of SarsCov2 alone.

As @DrRHatchett puts it, it does not just spot sharks but tracks them once the dorsal fin dips beneath the water Image
Read 21 tweets
Mar 24
Widespread condemnation as Uganda proposes death penalty for ‘aggravated homosexuality’

The bill passed by Uganda's parliament is denounced by the UN as ‘probably among the worst of its kind in the world’
@benfarmerDT reports - thread 🧵

telegraph.co.uk/global-health/…
America, the United Nations and the UK have all condemned a new anti-gay bill passed in Uganda, with Washington suggesting it could trigger sanctions.
The bill still needs presidential assent, but prescribes the death penalty for “aggravated homosexuality” and life imprisonment for “homosexuality”.
Read 8 tweets
Mar 23
Mouse apocalypse on the horizon for island of rare seabirds

The largest ever mouse eradication project on Marion Island hopes to protect wandering albatross and other species

@benfarmerDT reports - no paywall 👇
telegraph.co.uk/global-health/…
Marion Island is home to a quarter of the world’s wandering albatrosses, as well as millions of other seabirds and seals.
Conservationists are launching the largest ever mouse eradication project, as they attempt to protect rare island seabirds from marauding rodents.
Read 8 tweets
Mar 16
Thread 1/5

Pandemics kill people directly but many more can die in the political and economic strife that follow.

There are several examples (measles etc) but perhaps the most obvious is the sudden rash of *Cholera* outbreaks across the world.

telegraph.co.uk/global-health/…
2/5 Cholera becomes a risk when economies and sanitation systems go to pot.

23 countries are currently reporting outbreaks, 30 have been hit in the last year & 40 are at risk, says @annegulland

It's the worst its been in 20 yrs.

See Lebanon, for eg
telegraph.co.uk/global-health/…
3/5 Outbreaks are terrifying.

With treatment you'll survive but getting help can be impossible as it sweeps through.

Children can die quickly, esp the malnourished. Adults often just collapse at the side of the road.

Cholera sucks the life from you.

who.int/news-room/fact…
Read 5 tweets
Mar 13
Thread 1/6

The H5N1 bird flu pandemic continues to rage around the world, documented today by the excellent @ECDC_EU

It is not there yet (and may never be), but some worrying mutations have been recorded taking it closer to us humans.

Here is the spread in birds: Image
2/5
Dead birds provided easy food (and infection) for an array of mammals - everything from foxes and cats to mink and ferrets, even sealions.

Mink to mink spread seems likely and perhaps sealion to sealion.

BUT most mammalian infections caused by contact with infected birds. Image
3/5
Humans are also catching it but NOT spreading between themselves.

There have been 873 human cases, including 458 deaths since 2003.

Here's the picture more recently: Image
Read 6 tweets

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