#HFT strategy time, part 2: Examples of features.
- Skew: The simplest type of book feature is called the skew, which is the imbalance between resting bid depth (v₂) and resting ask depth (v₁) at the top of the book.
So we can formulate this as some sort of difference between v₂ and v₁. It’s convenient to scale these by their order of magnitude, so we take their log differences instead:
skew = log(v₂)−log(v₁) = log v₂ / v₁
Notice that it doesn’t matter whether it’s log (v₂) − log (v₁) or log (v₁) − log(v₂). It’s just nice to formulate signals in a way that (+) values imply that we expect prices to 📈 & (-) values imply that we expect prices to 📉, so it’s easy to debug your strategy & models.
I picked this ordering because intuitively, we expect higher bid depth to mean higher buy demand and hence higher prices. Anyway on to the next feature.
- Book imbalance: A variation of the skew is called a book imbalance:
imbalance = (v₂ − v₁) / (v₂ + v₁)
This works on the same microstructural principle except we’re scaling the signal differently. The imbalance is more sensitive to changes whereas a larger magnitude of change is needed to effect the same marginal change in the skew.
We won’t use the book imbalance this time but I thought to bring it up because it is similar and there is plenty of financial literature and econometric research on the book imbalance.
Last post in this thread: Next week I'll put these into a strategy. I'll also explain why I chose skew rather than a billion other feature examples. I should probably also put a bunch of disclaimers in place (one-in-a-million examples, not investment advice, etc).
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#HFT Here's an example of an HFT strategy. Keep in mind this is 1 in a billion examples. This isn't investment advice. Don't trade it. I'm in a unique position where I can share strategies without getting sued cuz it's my company & IP.
#HFT Part 1: Important terminology. It's hard to jump into an HFT strategy without explaining some terminology first.
A “feature” or “predictor” is any kind of basic independent variable that we think has some predictive value. Some call it a “feature” if they’re from the machine learning world, others call it a “predictor” or “regressor” if they come from a statistics or econometric background.
The SVB collapse has been devastating in more ways than one: They supported women, minorities, & the LGBTQ community more than any other big bank. This includes not just diverse events, but actual funding. SVB helped us move one step forward; without them, we move two steps back.
2) Many companies had cash in SVB, including companies like Etsy. This impacts independent makers and artists. Even if you didn't bank with SVB, you'll probably start to feel the impact of it over these next few weeks.
3) The SVB staff are one-of-a-kind. Many of them come from traditional banks with toxic cultures. SVB allowed them break the mold & create a healthy, innovative startup ecosystem. My heart goes out to all of the hardworking staff who were affected by this. This isn't your fault
BREAKING: SVB has been shut down. “The most recent statement from the FDIC is that all funds up to the insured amount ($250k) will be available in the short term.” fdic.gov/news/press-rel…
My last post got so much hate. Some people judged me super hard and lost respect for me. So I’m saying this one more time.
You can hate me all you want, but my advice was correct. In the prisoner’s dilemma, when a person reaches for the pot of gold, others have no choice but to grab what’s left, or get screwed over.
Thank you. I’m grateful to be able to help other startups launch faster with our data. I have enough cash to live my life pretty comfortably. I’m sorry that you have a problem with my personal career choice. Honestly I’m a nobody and will never understand the obsession lol
I wasn’t successful by any means. Maybe a little bit (millionaire) but nowhere close to the billionaires you see on CNBC. So the obsession with my every move (treasuries, data, etc) boggles my mind sometimes. Thank you, internet stranger
(Re: money- this is about my previous company. I make way less today, and I’m okay with that. My mental health is the best it’s been in ages!)
Idk about you but I make enough money that, as a busy CEO, it’s worth it to pay a tiny fee to get an LAL, improve our credit, and access treasuries. 🤷🏻♀️ Outsourcing admin work is awesome.
I grew up poor and my parents never taught me the time value of money. They would waste hours doing taxes themselves and translating stuff when they could’ve hired a cheap tax preparer. Likewise, I used to hand-sew my first company’s swag cuz I was THAT cheap.
All I’m saying is that, it is very difficult for me to outsource things. My natural instinct is to do everything myself. Manage every penny. Write every piece of collateral. Handle every sale. But that’s not how companies scale.
I was supposed to do an interview this morning, but the candidate ghosted me. After emailing him and waiting 20 minutes I gave up and left the Zoom. Later he emails me being like "sorry can you delete my application." I didn't mind his response, but definitely learned a lesson:
1) It's a red flag when candidates waste an interviewer's time, and vice-versa. If I was the only decision-maker, I would reject everyone who ghosted me, even if they apologized later. Unless you had an emergency, you should reschedule *before* the interview, which takes ~1 min.
2) No matter what title you have, no matter what you've accomplished, you will always be a nobody to most people out there. BUT, that doesn't mean candidates should ghost you. Basic email etiquette takes less than a minute, and goes a long way.