There’s a really important (and often overlooked) point here.
If, as rumoured, Tata builds a battery factory in the UK, actually it’s prob not Tata but another company - likely Envision AESC - which will actually be MAKING the batteries.
UK will be getting MORE reliant on China.
This goes to a deeper point. For the most part, the car companies whose badges go on the vehicles we buy don’t make the batteries inside them.
They invariably outsource 🔋production to other firms you’ve probably never heard of, most of which are Asian. Many of which are Chinese.
This is something I write about at some length in #materialworld. Perhaps the most interesting thing about the world’s first “gigafactory” - the Tesla plant in Nevada - is that it’s NOT Tesla making the batteries - it’s Panasonic.
Now, Tesla, and for that matter other companies like GM, are starting to reach down the supply chain.
Tesla is starting to make some of its own batteries - albeit at smaller scale than Panasonic or CATL (which makes its Chinese batteries). GM is investing in lithium mines 👇
But it’s a reminder that the battery factories everyone’s obsessed with these days are really just the tip of the iceberg (see my recent blog for more). And the vast, VAST majority of that industrial iceberg is controlled by China edconway.substack.com/p/beyond-gigaf…
But, back to the UK, following the collapse of BritishVolt, Britain has no home-grown mass market EV battery player. The only major battery factory is the one for Nissan in Sunderland, which is run not by Nissan but by, guess who, Chinese-owned Envision AESC.
In other words, if Tata does as expected partner with Envision for its anticipated UK gigafactory Britain would not only be reliant on Chinese firms, but reliant on ONE Chinese firm for ALL its EV batteries.
The British CAR INDUSTRY would be reliant on ONE Chinese firm!
China’s been thinking about this - how to dominate supply chains - for decades. UK has barely only just begun thinking about it. We spent years assuming we could just buy stuff from wherever would sell it for the cheapest price. Which made sense in a stable world. Less so today
We ALL need to start pondering the nuts & bolts of the world around us. Not just because it’s massively important for our economies and our future stability.
Also because it turns out to be fascinating.
I know - I’ve just written a book about it: amazon.co.uk/Material-World…
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
🧵
Why is Britain facing higher inflation than any other G7 member?
How did the @bankofengland get so far behind the curve?
Why will UK households end up facing higher interest rates than anyone expected a few years ago?
Best place to begin: cucumbers.
Yes, really: cucumbers
🥒
For not only is the cucumber one of Britain’s great vegetable stables, the iconic filling in sandwiches at tea parties up and down the land, its story also tells you rather a lot about the economic pickle we’re in right now (pun intended).
You’ve prob noticed the price of cucumbers has risen. A lot. That’s borne out by official data👇
Average price of a cucumber hovered around 50p for most of the past decade or so. It’s now up to 83p, according to this morning’s data (NB these are averages. Cucumber prices vary)
NEW
Another inflation shocker.
UK CPI inflation stays at 8.7% in May.
Economists had expected it to fall to 8.4%
Core inflation (stripping out volatile stuff) RISES to 7.1% - expectations were 6.8%
Not good.
Hard to imagine another set of inflation data which would more worry the @bankofengland than this.
Core inflation building.
Services inflation up even as the volatile stuff goes down.
All seems to point to sticky, stubborn inflation. All seems to point to higher interest rates.
Here's the Chancellor @Jeremy_Hunt's response.
Couple of things: 1. That pledge to halve inflation (which once looked pretty unambitious) is now seriously in doubt 2. Higher BoE rates will be painful. Could tip UK into recession. Thus breaking govt pledge to keep economy growing
That’s me in the hard hat, in front of the bucket of a terrifyingly enormous digger.
What you can’t really tell from the picture is that my head was spinning.
I’d just had one of those moments that change your life forever. It would set me off on a journey around the world…🧵
I was at a gold mine in Nevada, one of the world’s biggest. And I had just seen a mountain being exploded. I mean, literally exploded.
Over time they had carved an enormous chunk out of the hill. Which, it turns out was sacred to the local Native American people.
All to get gold
& I thought to myself: HANG ON.
If this is what we do the landscape to get a metal used mostly for ornamental & monetary purposes, what do we do to get the stuff we REALLY need?
Come to mention it, what IS the stuff we REALLY need?
What are the substances civilisation depends on?
👀Blimey
UK money markets now pricing in @bankofengland interest rates of 5.75% by early next year.
That’s a massive change from only a month ago, when they thought rates might peak under 5%.
Things looking increasingly grisly for mortgage payers/the housing market
Let me show you why this is such a big deal. And it IS a big deal.
Right now, the average two year fixed rate deal is 5.9% acc to Moneyfacts. The avg 5yr deal is 5.54%.
Let’s be conservative and take the lower rate, and compare it to history…
Highest since 2008
But now let’s adjust for the fact that these days people have bigger mortgages and lower incomes vs their monthly payments. @resi_analyst has done the sums on this. It results in a line like this.
This is a genuinely comparable measure of the burden of mortgage repayments
This may look like the most boring press release in the world.
But let me tell you why it’s a big deal.
Acrylonitrile is a massively important chemical we are becoming more and more reliant on.
You find it everywhere. We turn it into astroturf, carpets, resins in car parts etc.
But it's also a critical ingredient in the manufacture of CARBON FIBRE. Here, courtesy of @rob_by_robwest , is how you make carbon fibre - one of the strongest/lightest materials in the world.
And without carbon fibre there would be no wind turbines!
Most of a wind turbine's blade is made from fibreglass but the really tough bits are made from carbon fibre. And, as I wrote in this piece ages ago, you can't make acrylonitrile, and hence carbon fibre, without OIL & GAS thetimes.co.uk/article/to-be-…
Interesting.
I suppose the key question is whether this just replicates the critical minerals agreement the EU announced with the EU back in March, or does it go further?
Looks on the face of it like it’s more or less the same - eg UK playing catch up with EU. But let’s see.
More details on the relevant bit of the agreement. Turns out this isn't quite a deal but the beginning of negotiations. V similar to what the EU is already negotiating. Not that that's a bad thing. But important context.
Full details of the "Atlantic Declaration" here. Not a trade deal or anything like it. Then again that's never really been on the cards gov.uk/government/new…