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Yanina Welp Profile picture
@Welpita
Jun 20 • 3 tweets • 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Desde 1985 una constante política en #Guatemala ha sido el voto castigo. El oficialismo no ganó nunca.
Muy completa panorámica preelectoral de @RNCASTELLANO y @CarlosMalamud rb.gy/e501ipara @rielcano 1/3 Image
Cada vez hay más postulantes, se derechiza la oferta y la corrupción expulsa liderazgos que amenacen con poner límites al poder... ese al que las urnas no logran alterar y que cada vez incide más sobre lo que pasa en el mundo político y público 2/3 ImageImageImage
Partidos que nacen y mueren antes de consolidarse, elevada fragmentación y volatilidad de las preferencias. Campo fértil para la salida (aumento de la abstención y el voto nulo) y el abrazo a opciones mesiánicas. Puras malas noticias. 3/3 #Guatemala Image

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More from @Welpita

Yanina Welp Profile picture
May 10
Some people says the Chilean process is the worst among the ones addressed to replace constitutions in turbulent times. I wonder which criteria is used to base such an assessment. First of all, the process is ongoing, so **we still don’t know**. 1/
Second, when comparing with past some facts should be considered. In #Venezuela and #Ecuador constitutions were under control of the government, so huge majorities imposed rules. In Ecuador 2008, before arriving to this point there were crazy interventions. We studied it👇2/ Image
Deputies removing members of the Tribunal Supremo Electoral, the TSE trying to dismiss deputies and at the end the President, sending the police to Congress to protect substitutes that sided with him against the parties from which they had been elected. #Ecuador 3/ Image
Read 7 tweets
Yanina Welp Profile picture
May 19, 2021
Some voices claim that #Chile will follow Venezuela’s path in the constitutional convention. Nonsense. Two key differences: 1) the referendum to approve the convention in Venezuela was not agreed and gave rise to legal disputes 2) the ‘Chavismo’ controlled 92% of the seats.
In #Chile, the plebiscite to initiate the process was the result of social pressure answered by a pact between the main parties and after the election, last week is clear that nobody has the power to ‘impose’ its agenda.
In #Venezuela, contrary to the decisions of the Supreme Court and the referendum's results, just days after opening, the ANC declared in its own by-laws that it was an “original constituent power”, and therefore empowered to limit or dissolve the other branches of government.
Read 5 tweets
Yanina Welp Profile picture
Jul 31, 2020
Si el estallido social en Chile en 2019 hizo saltar por los aires la idea (muy cuestionada por muchos, igualmente) de que era un modelo de democracia liberal, ahora la pandemia ha hecho saltar por los aires ‘el milagro económico peruano’. 1/6
La economía que más creció en la región a lo largo de las últimas décadas llegó a la pandemia con 150 camas en unidades de emergencia para 30 millones de habitantes. Paula Muñoz, Martín Tanaka y Adriana Urrutia lo analizaron. 2/6 bit.ly/2P7L6HY
Conclusiones de la charla: 1) la voluntad política no alcanza. El presidente se rodeó de expertos, se ocupó de comunicar, tomó medidas rápidamente, aprobó ayudas económicas, compras de tablets para impulsar la educación online, etc. Pero no funcionó. 3/6
Read 6 tweets

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