Thread by @michaeldweiss

.@holger_r and I spoke to "Karl," the Estonian military analyst. His thoughts on the Ukrainian counteroffensive, the Kakhovka Dam, and Belgorod: 🧵

"The last time we spoke, I came to the conclusion that Ukraine is showing the first signs of activation on the fronts. Now this activation has increased. In addition to attacks in the rear, they are also carrying out cautious attempts at a ground offensive."

"For the time being, progress is scarce. A few tens of square kilometers have been liberated. This is only natural given how long it took to liberate Kherson from the moment the first attacks were launched there."

"If last year's situation is anything to go by, the first signs that Ukraine had started land attacks towards Kherson came in early August. The liberation of Kherson was achieved on November 11, more than three months later. The area was much much narrower."

"In southern Ukraine, it may take longer, as the area is larger and logistically still covered by Russia. When the Kherson bridges were destroyed, the Russians had a very difficult logistical situation there. In the south, the Russians now also have difficulties."

"Ukraine has been able to successfully attack Russian railways in both southern Ukraine and Crimea for the last 2-3 weeks. Blowing up a railway is not that severe, it can be rebuilt in a few days."

"But a large railway bridge was blown up between Melitopol and Dzhankoi in northern Crimea. This means that there is no rail access to Melitopol. Reloading will have to be done again farther away from the railway line, making it all technically more difficult."

"If you look at the fronts, there are two areas where Ukraine has made significant progress. At Velyka Novosilka they have managed to advance 7-8 kilometers. They've also advanced several kilometers around Bakhmut on both sides, from the north and the south."

"There is no longer any danger that the Russians could advance from there."

"Rather, if Ukraine is able to build on its progress, Russian units could face major problems inside Bakhmut. There could be a danger that the Ukrainian flanks are already more to the east than the Russian-controlled town."

"There has also been some advance by Ukraine from the Orikhiv direction southwards towards Zaporizhia, but progress there is less."

"Ukraine is far from having deployed all of its reserve units to the battle. At the moment it is not a massive offensive. It would be a lot to hope for a repeat of what happened in Kharkiv last year, with the Ukraine taking back territory the size of Estonia in five days."

"The element of surprise as to where the Ukrainian offensive would now come from was not possible. The Russians were waiting from all directions. Only Donetsk would have been a surprise, as it has very strong fortifications."

"When the large offensive starts depends on where the Russian troops will start to break down, how the Russian logistics will work, how much artillery ammo and artillery Russia has down there. Suppressing enemy artillery fire is a big priority for Ukraine."

"Without it, it will be very difficult to retake territory. In that case there would be hordes of corpses."

"Russians have suffered heavy artillery losses recently. Only yesterday 31 more were destroyed. In the normal phase of the war, the average was maybe 4-5 a day. Lately, it's over 10, over 20, over 30."

"The destruction of the Kahhovka dam has been a major source of concern for the Ukrainians. And also the Western media's fake balanced attitude. There is also enough information today to be convinced that it was the Russians who did it."

"If there had been a Ukrainian missile strike, U.S. satellites would have shown it very well."

"The informed working version is currently as follows. The dam was damaged anyway and some things were not working properly there. The Russians wanted to use a controlled explosion to raise the flow to avoid flooding around the dam."

"As usual for the Russians, things got out of control. The explosion was more massive than they wanted."

"Russia has had a big problem with what happened in Belgorod a couple of weeks ago. Sooner or later the Ukrainians will continue this operation. For two reasons: 1) To prevent Russia from firing on Ukrainian territory from there. 2) To bind Russian units."

"The fact that 'Russian volunteers' are driving around freely there and flying different flags is certainly not to the liking of the Russian authorities. It is a sign that Russia does not control its territory and that they have no reserves."

"Russia has brought in 2 to 5 battalions, according to various versions, but Ukraine is operating with units smaller than a battalion. The border is long."

"If the aim of the 'volunteers' is to blow up a few fuel depots, a police station and leave for Ukrainian territory and make the next attack 100 kilometers from another direction, it will be difficult to defend it."

"Ukraine has had a hard time in the air. At the beginning of the war, the Ukrainian Air Force was at least ten times smaller than the Russian one. The Russians haven't shot down very many Ukrainian planes, but as they are old planes, their flying time is simply running out."

"Last autumn the flights were sometimes evenly matched, but now the ratio is clearly in favor of Russia. Ukraine should soon receive new MiGs from Poland and other countries. This will ease the situation a bit, but in terms of quality they will be inferior to Russian Sukois."

"It will remain difficult to find a solution. The reason for this is the procrastination by Ukraine's supporters. If the F16 decision had been made in January in the same package with the tanks, they would not be on the front line today, but they would be very close to it."

"Now it is still months away."

"I think that maybe still by the end of the year F-16s will be available, but the weather will be overcast and both Russian and Ukrainian fighters won't fly very much."

"Russia has been trying to counterattack in the direction of Kupiansk and Kreminna. The aim is to reduce Ukrainian pressure under Bakhmut and force Kyiv to move units out of there."

"Western equipment losses are by no means dramatic. Russia has photographed the same situation from a hundred angles and presents it as new information. There is talk of two Leopards being hit, one of which is back in line already."

"They are easier to recover than the Russian tanks."

"And unlike Russian armor, they can protect soldiers. When you're fighting a very big enemy, something gets hit. It would be utter naive to think that Ukraine would drive the Leopards and Bradleys out to the Sea of Azov and the Russians would just run away."

"To suggest that up to 10% of Western technology has been destroyed is, in my view, overly radical. Certainly, Ukraine has not yet brought most of the Western equipment to the front."

[Note: Colonel Margo Grosberg, Chief of the Estonian Defence Forces' Intelligence Centre, said Ukraine lost less than 10% of Western equipment in the current fighting. Karl is responding to a question about this.]

"Politically, there are no major developments. This is not yet the moment for serious peace negotiations. The parties have very different objectives. Both believe that they can at least improve their position."

"All those involved in mediating peace do so for domestic political and media reasons, to be visible. There is no grounds for peace mediation. Everyone should understand this."

"The Chinese made their attempts to show that they are global players and perhaps to show their importance in the global south. They don't seem to take it very seriously themselves."

"I think that the NATO Vilnius Summit is still being negotiated and that there are no final decisions yet. The problem is primarily with the U.S. and, to some extent, the Germans. The German problem could be overcome if the U.S. could get its act together."

"The U.S. knows that, if there is another war in the future, they are the ones who will have to help the allies. I think the fear of escalation is not out of the minds of certain circles in Washington either."

"When I look at the rhetoric in Ukraine, it is calmer than it was 2-3 weeks ago. One could conclude that developments are favorable for them. The most important thing in Vilnius is to fix a relatively straightforward and binding road map for Ukraine."

"It must not be like what was said in Bucharest that one day the Ukraine will become a member of NATO."

"An idea that is now circulating: an interim decision will be taken in Vilnius and a decision in principle on Ukraine's membership would come at next year's summit in Washington, when it is NATO's 70th anniversary. It will also be the last summit of Biden's current term."

"This is the idea that some countries are trying to shape."

"The countries of Western Europe are substantially increasing defense spending. That would be very considerable in peacetime. In wartime, I am not sure it will be enough."

"It is certainly not enough for France, which talks about the strategic autonomy of Europe -- that is, that we must be able to defend ourselves without the United States."

"I think everyone subscribes to that rhetoric, and I wish Europe could. But given how far behind Europe is from the U.S., then defense spending should be raised not to 2.3-2.5% but to 5-6%. Even then, it would take years to achieve results."

"It is a long way from serious autonomy."

"Regarding ammunition production, the situation on the front has been getting better for Ukraine all the time. Today, in some sections, Ukraine has the capability to fire more artillery than Russia. A year ago the ratio was 10-1 in favor of the Russians. This is a huge shift."

"Perhaps it has also been possible to buy Soviet era ammunition from everywhere in the world that had it. Pakistan, for example, has huge stocks. The U.S. and the British have made a huge effort to do so."

"Even if some countries sold it or gave it away in exchange for something else, they're not interested in talking about it loudly." / END