Daniel Feldman Profile picture
Jun 23, 2023 18 tweets 5 min read Read on X
We now know that the Titan submersible's carbon fiber hull basically exploded

You probably know that carbon fiber is prone to randomly shattering

So WHY did they use it for the Titan?

Fortunately, they wrote an article about why!

It starts with this guy:
Steve Fossett was an ACTUAL adventurer

He made the first balloon flight around the world; first solo flight around the world; fastest sail trip around the world; and records in skiing, mountain climbing, Le Mans, and even the Iditarod!

He was funded by Richard Branson
Steve Fossett's last project was top secret

The Deep Flight Challenger was an airplane-like submarine

It was a one-person sub, with wings, made of lightweight carbon fiber like his record-setting planes

And designed to go to the deepest point in the ocean (Challenger Deep)
For an aviator, making an airplane-like submarine likely made sense

Because it's very lightweight, it achieves neutral buoyancy in the water on its own -- without layers and layers of bulky foam

It can literally FLY underwater
But Steve Fossett disappeared in 2007, while flying his small plane over Nevada. This spurred the largest hunt for a missing person in history, involving dozens of planes, satellites, crowdsourced volunteers pouring over images, and even psychics
The search was so thorough that they found eight OTHER plane crashes while looking for Fossett!

It a year and millions of dollars to find Fossett's wreck -- it appears he crashed into a steep ridge, his locator beacon failed, and he stumbled about half a mile away before dying
After Fossett died, the DeepFlight Challenger was acquired by Richard Branson's new company Virgin Oceanic

He wanted to commercialized it

But here's the important thing:
THE DEEPFLIGHT CHALLENGER WAS MADE FOR ONE TRIP ONLY

That's what Fossett thought was safe with carbon fiber
In 2014, Branson gave up on commercializing DeepFlight Challenger for this reason ...

But that's around the time fellow adventurer Stockton Rush starts working on his second submarine, the "Cyclops 2"
telegraph.co.uk/news/science/s…
(He had already built the Cyclops 1 out of conventional materials)

Rush contracts with Spencer Composites, an aerospace carbon fiber manufacturer, to design the Cyclops 2 hull... *IN ONLY SIX WEEKS*

(This article is very detailed)

https://t.co/ALMcv620rmcompositesworld.com/articles/compo…
Not coincidentally, Spencer Composites ALSO made the hull for the DeepFlight Challenger

But the Cyclops 2 didn't fly around like a plane. So why use carbon fiber at all?

Well, it meant it could be cheaper, and portable, and hold 5 people rather than the usual 1-3
Ok, so Rush isn't a complete idiot, he knows that the carbon fiber is going to get weaker on every dive

So he invents the Acoustic Real-time Monitoring System

During descent, a computer sends acoustic pings to 20 sensors through the carbon-fiber hull, to detect weakness
The idea was the submarine would stop every hour or two on its descent. The computer would measure the integrity of the hull. If if seemed like it was failing, the pilot would take it up to safer waters.

(The patent is in Rush's name alone -- he didn't have a lot of engineers.)
So what happened? Either the monitoring system failed, or it worked and for some reason they didn't ascend in time.

We'll probably never know. And there will probably never be another carbon fiber sub after this disaster.
Some good threads from people who actually work on this stuff (not me)

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More from @d_feldman

Nov 8, 2024
People who have Ivy League degrees:
Donald Trump
JD Vance
Elon Musk
Ron DeSantis
Ted Cruz
RFK Jr.

People who do not have Ivy League degrees:
Kamala Harris
Tim Walz
Nancy Pelosi
Bernie Sanders
Elizabeth Warren
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
(Someone else tried to argue elite colleges are brainwashing with me yesterday too, and they blessedly then deleted their whole account lmao)
Just curious since this is blowing up....

Did you know this already?
Read 6 tweets
Nov 7, 2024
People don't get this

You can't make meaningful cuts in federal spending without cutting Social Security and Medicare

They're 55% of the budget

Military is 13%, 7% is federal pensions and disability (mostly military)

Interest is 10%

EVERY OTHER THING IS A ROUNDING ERROR
NASA? Highways? Education? Public housing? Welfare?

It literally does not matter

You're not going to fix your household budget by cutting out lattes, it just isn't a significant amount of money
Even if Trump fired EVERY SINGLE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT EMPLOYEE (except for, presumably, himself) ...

(2.87 million people)

That would decrease federal spending ~20%

And we'd have no more military, no more highways, no more prisons, no more FBI, no more air traffic control...
Read 6 tweets
Nov 6, 2024
So as I'm writing this, it's looking extremely likely that Trump will win the election tomorrow.

The news is going to be full of after-the-fact explanations. How Harris didn't campaign hard enough, how Trump made inroads with minorities, how people blame Biden for inflation...
I do not think any of that actually matters though. Any kind of hypothesis about what voters were thinking is counterfactual and impossible to prove. We'll never know "why" and it has no impact.

What matters is what happens now. And we already know, more or less.
Trump's entire strategy (both when campaigning and in office) is to "flood the zone." He generates multiple major news stories, both positive and negative, every single day. If nothing is happening today he literally makes a big deal about the death of a SQUIRREL.
Read 38 tweets
Oct 14, 2024
Restaurants on the same intersection JD is standing (and talking about a "city in decline"):
Du Nord Cocktail Room
Lagniappe (creole)
Arbeiter Brewing
Hook & Ladder (music/shows)
Zen Arcade (marijuana)
Loncheria Los Amigos
Wendy's
Raising Cane's
Mr. Momo
Quruxley (Somali)
There are also 2 bookstores, a library, a post office, a gym, Aldi, Target, Cub Foods, retirement home, bank, and a small clinic

all RIGHT THERE, if he'd look around

Why would anyone vote for a repeat, bald-faced, obvious liar???
People are watching this in their small town with a Walmart and McDonalds and a bunch of closed factories and meth labs and nodding along
Read 17 tweets
Oct 9, 2024
Articles like this are going to get someone killed Image
The headline is from the Pioneer Press, which took it down
The actual article is syndicated from NYT
about 4-5% of people will say yes to ANYTHING on a survey btw, this is called the Lizardman Constant
Read 9 tweets
Sep 26, 2024
Across a wide variety of subjects, college students with last names that are later in the alphabet get worse grades.

The difference is substantial: having a last name at the end of the alphabet costs about 0.25 GPA points, about half a grade (eg A to A-, or B- to C). Image
The data is from the Canvas learning management software used by many colleges, which by default presents assignments in alphabetical order to the teacher to grade. So the teachers are either getting more strict at grading towards the end, or just getting tired and annoyed.
Not too surprisingly, the difference is much less in factual/quantitative subjects, and much greater in humanities.
Read 7 tweets

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