Thread by @Sime0nStylites

1. I wanted to share some Brexit thoughts. 

It is important to acknowledge‘this’ Brexit (other forms were available) BOTH succeeded (it happened) and (so far) has failed.

2. There is no better evidence for ‘this’ Brexit’s failure than the polling which shows a divided country largely united in thinking that it has not gone well and that the UK should have a closer relationship with the EU.

3. By any measure, after such a huge success, the current situation represents a huge political failure by the Leave establishment and successive Conservative governments. 

* If you want to make a success of Brexit then you actually have to make it a success *

4. And we should ask ourselves (and I do not think we do this enough) why is it that our politicians, our government, our institutions have performed so poorly. 

(There are large elements of shared responsibility)

5. Brexit has also been very costly.

Here, I tend to navigate between @jdportes at 2-3% and @JohnSpringford at 5.5% and settle in the middle at 4%.

Note these numbers are ‘so far’.

6. Imagine what the lost tax revenue might have paid for…

And my suspicion is that while we have already taken a large amount of pain there is more to come as the UK and the EU inevitably diverge (absent a course change).

7. Of course, things can change.

But, I think a combination of the unpopularity of the Conservatives, poor economic performance, and the demographic effect of younger voters being much more pro Europe, will continue to drive the polling towards greater Brexit negativity.

8. So what do we do?

It is not controversial to say that as we look towards a Labour government, there will be a strong effort to change the current arrangement.

9. While Labour has been clear the UK will not mean join the SM etc, my suspicion is the desired arrangement will be quite ‘ambitious’. 

The question is will that work? By which I mean achieve an outcome that from an economic perspective is materially better than the status quo.

10. I have my doubts.

This is not to do with ‘cherry picking’ (an unhelpful term) and not to do with European political will to have that discussion (I think there would be), but because I think the UK ‘ask’ will be too one sided.

11. By one sided, I do not mean there will not be an acceptance of rights and obligations (I think there will be - ie hard wired alignment with appropriate governance) but…

12. … because the UK will likely only want to align in the areas where its competitive advantage has been badly impacted by Brexit (ie goods) and not in the areas where it still thinks it can outcompete (ie services).

13. I really struggle to imagine this type of arrangement being acceptable.

This isn’t to say that I don’t think some things are achievable (eg SPS, mobility) but I am very sceptical about the feasibility of the more ambitious ideas.

14. That said, and I apologise if this seems contradictory, I see no option for the UK but to try even if it is to try and fail.

We have to make the effort to find out - this is vital information.

15. The question then is what happen if / when this effort fails or, rather, does not succeed enough? Here I think it is important to acknowledge that there are no good answers.

16. It is as unhelpful to say the UK ‘holds no cards’ as it is to say the UK ‘holds all the cards’. But I very much have my doubts that the UK’s negotiating position is strong enough to avoid being referred back to Barnier’s legendary escalier.

17. My view it is very likely, over the next 5-10 years, the UK will have to face ‘the question’ again, most likely, in the first place, in the form of joining the SM.

18. But if that does happen, we MUST deliver a result that achieves popular consent and that is durable.

We MUST NOT repeat the terrible mistakes of the past.

/ends