The question is not "if" Prigozhin coup benefits Ukraine; it clearly categorically does. The question is "how much" it benefits Ukraine, and how much it could potentially shorten this war.
My current feeling is; significantly.
Wagner was a significant source of offensive power for Russia. And no, it wasn't just the convicts - although they were an important aspect - some of the best/most skilled soldiers on the Russian side, with the best equipment, were Wagner professionals.
That's all gone.
And what is also gone is any lingering impression that Putin's "special military operation" has made Russia safer. It's brought chaos and insurrection - if not full scale civil war, to Russian streets.
Russians fighting Russians in Russian cities. All because of the war.
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Prigozhin and his Wagner mercenaries at the headquarters of the Southern Military District in Rostov, now under the control of his mercenary organisation.
Well connected Russian Telegram channel "Fighterbomber" - which is run by a pilot in the Russian airforce - confirms Wagner did indeed shoot down three Russian helicopters - two Mi-8 transport helicopters and an Mi-35 helicopter gunship.
At the Bugaevka border crossing, Voronezh Oblast, an entire company of Russian troops surrendered to Wagner mercenaries without a fight.
The Chongar bridge - which connects the temporarily occupied parts of Kherson Oblast with Crimea, was hit and heavily damaged last night - most likely with a 'Storm Shadow' cruise missile.
We saw from Ukrainian strikes on the Antonovsky Bridge in Kherson that strikes like this might not disable foot traffic from crossing, but quickly makes the bridge impassable to heavy military vehicles.
The Kakhovka dam in Nova Kakhovka has been destroyed overnight, almost certainly by Russian forces, in an attempt to stymie the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south of Ukraine.
Footage from ground level shows catastrophic damage to the Kakhovka dam. A large number of settlements including the city of Kherson are now at risk of "catastrophic" flooding.
The 'Palace of Culture', in temporarily occupied Nova Kakhovka on the left/east bank of the Dnipro, under water after the destruction of the Kakhovka dam.
The goals of these incursions into Russia seem pretty obvious to me - to embarrass the Putin regime, to force Russia to re-deploy troops to defend the border areas, and to demonstrate that the war can and will cross the border into Russia proper.
Russia had long assumed - probably correctly - that the site of Ukrainians charging into Russia would make their Western partners nervous. Kyiv has neatly sidestepped that by using Russian proxy forces instead of Ukrainians.
But regardless, the outcome will be the same - it'll force Russia to re-deploy troops that could have been more productively used in Ukraine to defend these border regions - in the same way Ukraine has had to station thousands of their own soldiers on the Belarusian border.
Earlier footage suggested a Ukrainian tank was involved in this skirmish, possibly crossing the Russian border. A reminder to Moscow that you can't expect the country you invaded to respect your imaginary "red lines".
Footage showing the tank, apparently operated by Ukrainian-aligned Russians fighting with the ZSU, at the Russian border checkpoint in Kozinka, Belgorod.
Ukrainian Twitter enjoying the spectacle of Ukrainian tanks entering Russia, whilst pointing out that this type of military equipment can be "freely bought at military stores" - a reference to Putin's infamous comments about Russians in Ukraine from 2014.