Thread by @future_ui

1/8 If the Wagners enter Red Square at night, consider that Prigozhin almost won and then we will understand who really supported him. Someone is supporting him, there is no doubt. This is the conviction of Vadym Denysenko, the executive director of the UIF

2/8 But in case of Prigozhin`s victory:

Those who are of the opinion that he will be the end of the war are wrong. In the first stage he will be forced to pay more attention to the internal situation than to the war. He will only begin to drag out time. And that is just a start

3/8 The seizure of power and the maintenance of power are two different things.
There is only one factor that he has to ensure: the non-use of nuclear weapons and the withdrawal from the ZNPP, in order to gain external legitimacy. And he's likely to do so.

4/8 Once he has managed to gain a foothold, he will have to go for a further escalation. But that will take time. But we have to understand that he is quick to decide and quick to get things done.

5/8 And that could be a problem for us in the medium term. So in the event of his victory, we will only have a short window of opportunity.

In case of Prigozhin's failure:

6/8 There will be a wave of repression in Russia and the elites will be on the run, which is a positive factor.
2. It will not be possible to regain control of the country in a matter of hours: it is already clear that the FSB, the police are simply not in place.

7/8 Maintaining the situation without mass terror will be extremely difficult.

The best thing for us is to prolong the conflict as long as possible, if I am asked which scenario is advantageous for us.

8/8 There is a chance that the Russian army will collapse if it lasts 10-14 days.

This is the conviction of Vadym Denysenko, the executive director of the UIF.