Thread by @baronitaigas

🌋🇷🇺: Given that we now seem to have firm details from the presidential office, I will break my silence on what has unfolded. This is of course only my opinion.

To the first question: was any of this real?

I answer, yes. Without question. And not because of the purported downing of Russian aircraft by forces of PMC Wagner (this has yet to be confirmed officially and Peskov's latest statement calls the 'photos' into question).

Instead, the answer is yes because of the very real damage this has done to Russia, primarily in the diplomatic sphere, and I will elaborate more on this below. The actions of the Wagner PMC over the last 24 hours expose a serious deficiency in the country's crisis-management.

Perhaps this is to be expected given the strains of the war in Ukraine, but it is still unforgivable. It raises questions not only about the long-term stability of Russia (which has financial implications) but also the competence of its security agencies.

Although any criticism of the services in Rostov are misplaced. They were heavily outnumbered by Prigozhin's mob, and under the circumstances, not engaging them was the prudent thing to do.

We can also say unequivocally the dissolution of Wagner PMC (which now seems inevitable) severely harms relationships built across Africa in particular with local allies. The PMC cannot be trusted to fulfil any functions on the continent after this incident.

"But it was so short!" - Failed coups often are
"But there wasn't much killing!" - This was a risk, but always unlikely given you were asking brother to shoot brother on both sides here, some who may have seen combat together.

In the face of the costs, a 'psyop' is inconceivable

The last refuge of the 'psyop' theory (which is no different to the 'imaginary coup to consolidate state power' theory) is that some kind of other more serious coup was about to be launched, and this fake one was launched to derail it, but I very much doubt this.

So, we arrive at the second question.
What are we to make of Yevgeny Victorovich and his actions? To Russia, there is only one word that can adequately describe this man now, and that word is traitor. On this point, an important caveat must be made:

The fighters of PMC Wagner, at least the lower ranks, are unlikely to be culpable to a significant extent. Coups more often than not involve quite a bit of deception even against the people holding the guns. But several senior commanders, most ex-military, are culpable.

What occurred over the last 24 hours was, when we take into account the entire range of effects, the worst crime against the country since probably the 1990s. That it took place during a conflict of an existential nature makes it all the more egregious.

Prigozhin has achieved all of these negative effects for his country, not to mention destroying the organization he claimed to represent. What motivated him? On this, I think the evidence available leaves very little room for speculation.

As many have pointed out, this attempted coup (and that is exactly what it was) did not occur "spontaneously", "in a fit of rage or madness", it was planned in advance, probably MONTHS in advance, and the timing is everything.

After all, according to all our vaunted "experts", right now the Ukrainian Armed Forces were meant to have occupied Melitopol with a corresponding breakdown in the Russian military. Against the backdrop of this, an attempt to seize power would have seemed most opportune.

The only problem is, when you lay such plans, if things don't go the way you had envisioned, you cannot necessarily back out of the cul-de-sac! The evidence exists and may be impossible to destroy. You may be forced to go, no matter the circumstances.

And this is precisely what I think happened. This brings me to the next point which would rule out any kind of spooky meaning behind these events: Prigozhin's own statements just prior to the launch of his putsch.

These were words that could have been lifted from an RDK internal memo. They were as if designed to lay the groundwork for an amicable "understanding" (read: surrender) to NATO. Let's recall what Prigozhin said about his country.

He stated that Russia's stated cause for entering the war was a lie, and in true Stenka Razin style, that the 'Tsar had been deceived!'. He even went so far as to spit on the people of Donetsk claiming that Ukraine never harmed them whatsoever.

He then even threw his own organization under the bus, claiming it was sent to Africa to plunder it for oligarchs, and that this was what Russia was intending for Ukraine. Are these the words of a man who you think would have continued the war?

And what use were these words if the entire thing was a large piece of theater? Why would the Kremlin have Prigozhin say such atrociously damaging things when they really added nothing to his cause, given the background of the simmering and well-known feud with the MoD?

These words were not written by the people who pushed Prigozhin. They were written for the people he hoped to climb into bed with after the coup, the various traitors abroad, people like Khodorkovsky, who received news of the coup with utter glee.

Whether Prigozhin was in contact already with handlers in the west before this broke out, its difficult to say. It seems likely. But nothing quite went to plan, because Ukraine failed to create a military crisis for Russia, much to everyone's surprise.

Notice also, Prigozhin almost had ready-baked statements for this military disaster he expected, and when it didn't happen, he published them anyway! He claimed, contrary to all war correspondents (even MoD-hostile ones) that UAF was achieving great success in the south.

So, when the coup unfolded, what did we find? Nobody supported Prigozhin except the enemy, except known traitors. Within hours, he was denounced by every governor in the country, the president, every major political party, and every prominent Telegram channel.

Like January 6th, it became apparent quickly that a lot of noise does not a seizure of power make. You have to either have the entire military apparatus on your side, or have significant backing from some political faction. He could find none.

So the attempt as clearly becoming unglued before Lukashenko stepped in to mediate. The outcome, according to the Kremlin, is quite clear. Wagner PMC will be dissolved. Prigozhin will be exiled to Belarus. No change of MoD personnel was apparently discussed.

His life was spared to prevent more bloodshed in the name of this narcissistic bandit, to prevent a fratricidal conflict that, while even most western analysts said was unlikely to go his way, could cost Russia its positions in Ukraine.

And speaking of Ukraine, we find that although their loud suited jackals jumped on this unfortunate incident, their army was slow to respond. Like the retreat from Kherson, it appears the moment to inflict maximum damage to Russia slipped through their fingers.

Russia has had 'loose' command structures cause it problems before. In 1682, the Streltsy, who formed the regulars of the Russian army, whilst helping the regent Sofia obtain power, illegally occupied the capital and turned it into their own personal barracks.

Their leader, Ivan Kovansky, was eventually beheaded along with his son, and Peter the Great destroyed the Streltsy after their final attempt to seize power, and the entire army was reorganized. Prigozhin is the Kovansky of our time. What he has done is unforgivable.

His laughable fraud about his men's camp being targeted by the Russian military (now recognized as staged by almost everyone), his clearly exaggerated outbursts during the siege of Bakhmut, his disgraceful use of his men's bodies as props, it has led to this final disgrace.

But it was all allowed to happen. And this is the critical point. The situation is defused, the war seems to be continuing, and the complete absence of support from society for the plotters does not bode well for any future attempts by someone else, but the damage is done.

The experiment of Wagner PMC, cooked up in backrooms to skirt around the stifling limitations of the Russian Federation's constitution, has exploded in the scientists' face. Putin oversaw the creation of a new Streltsy on Russian soil, and he crowned a new Kovansky over it.

For all the voluminous failures that can be put at the door of Gerasimov, Shoigu, and a host of as-yet-nameless Russian intelligence officials, this failure is on the president. For now, the requirement of stability in the face of NATO's efforts to destroy the country protect him

But more than ever, it has become apparent that Russia requires a new constitution, and as soon as this war is concluded (if it is concluded on favorable terms to Russia) a new president. What fate holds in store for Prigozhin, a disgrace to his country, we shall see.

For now, we return to the war. So far, it seems all men on the front continued to do their duty in this most difficult hour, when a madman held a dagger to their backs. Russia has lost a very capable force, but all other things mostly hold constant.

Concern about Russia's silent allies is certainly warranted, but we should remember the (much more serious imo) attempt by Turkey's actual army to overthrow Erdogan did not seriously damage the country's external relations long-term with its established allies.

Besides, I think everyone in the world does, after living with Russia for several hundred years, expect it to get a little crazy once in a while. Strange and tragic events are part of the national makeup.

(Addendum): I did not make any Telegram posts while this event was ongoing because I could see live the insane amount of misinformation being spread online, some of it quite obviously deliberate, some of it a result of idiocy, and some of it a result of clout-chasing.

I'm not going to embarrass any accounts on here by naming them, but there are some high profile accounts in this information space whose conduct over the last 24 hours has been disgraceful and calls into question if their strings are being pulled.

I won't be sharing content from these accounts going forward. Opinion is fine, qualified speculation is fine, but alleging imaginary events which could lead to people you claim to support getting killed during such a tense situation is frankly reprehensible.

I've said my piece.

@AmeliaAiredale I respect this point. I wouldn't push the analogy too far of course, but there were people at the time (present at the event and observing it) who genuinely thought that it would somehow result in a change of power, though they couldn't work out how.

@NebarraFollow Hence my point that he expected support from within the country from at least somebody. He could not start the whole thing in Moscow because he wasn't there. His troops moved out of LNR in a logical fashion.

@downcutter Agreed, all points subject to change of course!

@C0nspiracyFacts No you don't, not unless people begin siding with you. Powerful people, in politics, finance, the standing army, and preferably the general public.

@Venividivici_80 Luka's involvement is, to be honest, baffling. I am really not sure what to make of it. He always surprises me.

@OlgaBazova Thank you 🫡

@mannice4311 So far, nothing official, and at a time like this that's really all that anyone should be listening to. It's possible they occurred but have been exaggerated.