Thread by @PigLazer

1/
Alright, because no one will leave me alone, this is my unexpert, totally guessing explanation as to why Wagner stopped just outside of Moscow.
Just like you always wanted, here is some random idiot's opinion but it's okay cos I'm famous on reddit.

2/
Firstly you need to understand Proggy is an outsider. He has no political influence nor friends. Shoggy, on the other hand, does, and a lot of it. He's survived purges before. He is a master when it comes to political maneuvering.

3/ Shoggy is good at intimidation, its how he survives, his "coup" was basically that, an intimidation tactic. he wasn't looking to replace Shogiu he just wanted to show how vulnerable Putin was without him and use it as leverage to get what he wanted.

4/ But Putin's biggest fear is some general of the army, getting the admiration of the public, and replacing him.
So Putin turned his back on him, and as soon as he did that Proggy's "march on Moscow" stopped being an intimidation tactic and became an armed rebellion.

5/ At that exact point, regardless of what happened next, Proggy had lost.
Because though he was half an hour from Moscow, though basically, nothing stood in his way of seizing the Kremlin, he who holds the knife can never wear the crown.

6/ Like I said, Proggy has no political influence, no friends, and no-one to call on. He would have sat alone and his ranks would have been filled with the desperate, and the power-hungry who had power in name only.
Putin's allies would have surrounded him in St Petersberg.

7/ If Proggy's aim was to end the war in Ukraine this would have been a good thing, Putin would have been forced to withdraw troops. But Proggys position was the war continue, just he could do a better job.
He knew if he seized power the war was lost. But....

8/ ...even if there was some agreement plan put in place and the war continued with Proggy in command, he would likely not have brought any great victory, and he knows that.
Proggy and Wagner are good at intimidation, fast infantry assaults, and using prisoners as meat shields,

9/ But this is what Russia is good at anyway. That's not the problem, it's never been the problem.
The problem is logistics and supply, stuff Proggy knows basically nothing about, and cannot fix.
The war would have continued on much as it is now, which would have lost him favor.

10/And as the war dragged on, as proggy proved he had no magic trick up his sleeve, he would have lost what little favor he had gained and his reign would have ended.
And the thing is, he was fully aware of it.
So he took the easy way out, even if it made no obvious sense.

11/ Expect him to gain a sudden heart condition, or fall out of a window, or to bravely lead the charge across the minefield within the coming weeks.