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Toby Vogel Profile picture
@tobyvogel
Jun 29 • 2 tweets • 1 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
The EU appears determined to pursue business as usual in #Bosnia and Herzegovina after the RS parliament enacted a frontal assault on a black-letter Dayton institution. The argument seems to be that the RS has for years been ignoring Constitutional Court rulings so this is...
…nothing new on substance. But this analysis is deeply flawed: Dodik will keep pushing as far as he can until someone pushes back, and this step has massive symbolic significance. EU utterly unprepared, with EUFOR below operational strength for at least a dozen years.

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More from @tobyvogel

Toby Vogel Profile picture
Nov 25, 2021
20 years on from the EU’s promise of enlargement to the Western Balkans, the policy has run out of rope. Those EU member states that are pushing it are doing so for the wrong reasons, e.g. b/c they want to enlarge the EU’s caucus of illiberals (Hungary). Those who insist on...
…tough conditions of democratic reform (e.g., The Netherlands) do so because their domestic constituencies are hostile to the very idea of enlargement, and in particular the admission of majority Muslim countries such as BiH, Kosovo, Albania.
The result is that the policy has empowered local strongmen à la Vučić and Rama while ordinary citizens are disillusioned and cynical and wait for the bus to Germany. Russia and China are making inroads - not b/c they have much to offer but because the EU’s offer is so weak.
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