Winning a future European accession referendum.

Some advice.

In a 🧡
or very specific - Maltese exemption on out-of-season hunting of certain migratory birds for cultural reasons.

The UK will have to make its case.

There will be full and fair payments to the budget. There will not be an opt-out from FoM, Schengen, home affairs or the euro.

11
It seems that the UK pro-European movement is not taking that into account as yet. That commitment would need to be made at the start and won at the referendum.

12

(This, of course, would not be the only difficult issue for rejoiners in a referendum)

13

But the € is the most totemic.

It is clear how the UK press, perhaps not even just the right, would portray this.

Defeat.

14
That would obviously be very hard to overcome in a referendum. But it would also set a narrative of the UK's new departure as starting with, and being associated with, defeat.

It would breed resentment, even if the ref. could be won.

15
So, what should be done? As the terms are known, pro-Europeans need to start putting the euro at the centre of their campaign.

It is hard to get into.

It should be something aspirational.

Talk it up.

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(It shouldn't be hard. The euro is pretty bloody amazing as an achievement and is the most visual symbol of our European unity)

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Do it now, build up the support for the euro, roll the pitch, so you're not having to do it in the heat of a referendum campaign. Make it a positive goal that people can achieve.

18
TLDR:

Juncker πŸ‘‡ Junker πŸ‘‡

@MaddanArchie Obviously loads of questions around point 3 as well.
@MaddanArchie Given what's happening in Europe, you can see our reticence.
@MaddanArchie Feel free to show me where the protections for the courts against WM interference are, if you disagree.
@MaddanArchie Most member states have higher-order protections for court independence. The UK lacks those.

Even Poland has more.
@MaddanArchie Either way, if you can't show the protections of court independence in the UK, there's not much point in discussing it further.
@MaddanArchie It's extraordinary that you can be so blasΓ© about this. I would not be happy were I you.

Anyhow, any chance we can see those protections of independence?
@MaddanArchie Plenty of common-law states have independent courts with protections. That you can't demonstrate that in the UK is understandable, because there are no protections.

Anyhow, please show the protections for independence that actually exist before we go further.
@MaddanArchie Anyhow, we're at a standstill, you don't seem to want to answer the first question, let's leave it there please.
@FederateUk The politics of that, for us, are how can you prove your commitment to Europe? A referendum with a big win will be necessary.
@FederateUk @davidatwilliams Please stop bringing up federalism as a solution. It's not. It might be a solution to your problems, but that's irrelevant to the discussion.
@FederateUk @davidatwilliams As for the referendum, it was be in accordance with your "constitution", which by tradition will mean a referendum.

Europe will not accept UK as a member unless it can prove cross-party and deep public support.

Those commitment would not be comprehensive.
@FederateUk @davidatwilliams Stop spamming me with irrelevant replies about federalism, or that the euro doesn't show commitment. It is a suite of measures, and sure, internal reform is part of it, but that's nowhere near sufficient.
@FederateUk @davidatwilliams There is no debate in any case. You are talking from a UK perspective only, you disregard what Europe feels on the issue, and your solutions, such as they are, are no functional and probably pie-in-the sky.
@FederateUk @davidatwilliams FWIW a federal UK is a good idea. But you were schooled yesterday in the problems with that.
@alexjbutcher Given that Europe will be well aware of the risk of bad faith, given the current circs., then precautions will be taken. But I don't see why UK would want to join in bad faith?
@alexjbutcher I don't really understand what you're arguing for? That the UK goes into accession with its fingers crossed behind its back when it makes commitments to Europe?
@alexjbutcher They could also time-limit the criteria being met, or insert any number of clauses into the accession treaty to compel the UK.

More likely though is that if the UK has got to that point, trust will have been re-established, and they will accept UKG bona fides in that regard.

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More from @nialloconghaile

Jul 7
What is the shape of Europe?

And does the UK have a place within that?

A🧡
Recently talk has returned to expansion of Europe. There has been a consistent move to deal with the Western Balkans to promote European values there and to prevent it being a running sore or a extralegal hell under Chinese or Russian influence. Accession is part of that.

2
There has been the recent astonishing progress along the accession path of Ukraine, which will entail enormous changes to how Europe functions

3

Read 29 tweets
Jun 28
The X-ceptionalist Xenomorph.

It's inside you.

A 🧡
Books have been written on the #exceptionalism inherent in British/English culture by the likes of Jeremy Paxman and Fintan O'Toole.

In one sense, it was just a cute trait of a former power. Until Brexit, when it became destructive to Britain's foreign relations and itself

2
Many countries view themselves as special: not surprising, as all cultures are unique.

Think of the US or France as the cradles of liberty and democracy, China or Greece as heirs to an ancient culture, or CH with its unique politics and democracy.

3
Read 21 tweets
Jun 12
I don't see why this is a shock to UK pols or reporters: it is perfectly clear in the treaty text.

1

inews.co.uk/news/politics/…
For the next UK government to push Europe into talks, the offer would need to be fairly imaginative and substantial.

The probable next UK gov seems to be ruling out imaginative and substantial.

2

The only other way that this might come about is if Europe feels that the TCA is not working to its benefit. At the moment Europe is very happy with the TCA and MSs are reaping an investment and balance of trade windfall.

3
Read 6 tweets
Jun 12
You can sense the growing frustration among pro-European Labour or Labour adjacent Britons at the moment.

Starmer is so focussed on the election that he is forgetting about government afterwards.

1

theguardian.com/business/2023/…
As a result, by "by not grasping the [Brexit nettle] nettle and making a big election issue of the catastrophe of Conservative Brexit, [Labour] are inhibiting their chances of achieving the 'sustained growth'".

2
Without the sustained growth, even narrow, and the revenue isn't there to make transformative change.

And broader regional and productivity growth could make the whole task much easier.

3 Image
Read 10 tweets
Jun 11
Thinking about this, and I think Fabrizio is right. Even in mixed systems - where code and common-law exist side by side in certain physical jurisdictions or certain international tribunals - precedents tend to take precedence.

1
However, there is something quite unique in the UK when compared with its neighbours. The idea of a "precedent" as being licence is not just confined to the courts; it is part if the wider political and parliamentary system.

2
Effectively, in a system like the UK with no ducument that the rest of the world would understand as a constitution, the system relies on asking, "Have we done this before?"

Obviously, with all changes, somebody must have done it that way first.

3
Read 13 tweets
Jun 10
Good article from @chrisgreybrexit, as usual.

Some brief thoughts.

1

chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2023/06/could-…
This is true, and this needs to be reiterated. You can't set foot in the same river twice. Trust will have to be restored. And that will be hard.

SM membership and particular European accession are far closer relations than between other sovereign states.

2 Image
That said, something has to be done urgently from a UK standpoint.

The pitch also has to be rolled for any change to stick.

And most of all, Starmer had an opportunity to end the Europhobic discourse in UK, but chose to continue it.

3
Read 6 tweets

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