The media and the academia are obsessed with the unimportant. Once you interiorise this principle, their obsession with "Putin's philosopher" Dugin becomes almost forgivable
There's no philosopher at the Putin's court
The king doesn't need a philosopher
He needs a jester🧵
As I said, obsession with the (supposed) "philosopher behind the Putin's plan" is almost forgivable, considering that the dominant Western discourse in Russia is mostly a projection of Western intellectuals. They project their fears, of course. But also their hopes and dreams
Being the King's Philosopher, a brain behind the tyrant, has been a wet dream of intellectuals at least since the days of Plato. It almost always ended the same. After all these millennia, intellectuals could have learned a basic truth:
The King is in no need of a "philosopher"
A Western intellectual may know he will never ever be a grey cardinal. But the idea that somewhere in the world, in the far-off, snow-covered Hyperborea there lives a sage guiding a mighty king is too beautiful to be just made up
Dugin is the proof that verbalism matters
The King's Philosopher is a made up figure. Countless generations of intellectuals tried to play this role only to find out that the king is in no need of a philosopher
What the King needs is a jester. And this is why every royal court worthy of this name had one
Trying to guess what is on Putin's mind based on the (non-existent) philosopher figure is absolutely futile. Unless you have a very solid evidence of the contrary, assume the king doesn't employ any
And yet, based on what we know about kings he very likely employs a jester
If the modern courts do not have a salaried position of a jester, that doesn't mean they don't employ any. It's just that modern jesters go under a different name
In this case, the favourite royal jester is usually referred to as a journalist
Andrey Kolesnikov is the longest serving journalist of the Kremlin pool: an accredited group of journalists allowed to visit events with the First One. No journalist ever accompanied him in so many trips and spent so much time with the First One as Kolesnikov did
While Kolesnikov rejects the title of "Putin's favourite journalist" as too immodest, he is widely known as such. He doesn't actually deny the special relations with the First One:
"It is a great happiness for a journalist. One should pray to keep such a relationship"
An editor of the Kommersant, a major business-oriented media (where Kolesnikov worked) described his role in the following way:
"Andrey alone counts for 20% of our value. Tomorrow he leaves and Kommersant loses 20% of its price"
For more than two decades of his work with Putin, Kolesnikov published countless articles, interviews and a few books about the First one
You know what is interesting about Kolesnikov's writings? The tone. A very dry, sarcastic description of everyone, including the Big Boss
The sarcasm is subtle, so it may be lost in translation. But it is absolutely obvious in the original. It was so obvious that the Russian encyclopedia of internet folklore had a special page with Kolesnikov's quotes on Putin, etc.
Most plausible explanation: Putin enjoys it
Example:
A comment on the Putin's address to the military/paramilitary who were suppressing the Wagner mutiny
Kolesnikov's role is the common knowledge in the Russophone space. When I mentioned "Putin's favourite jester" (without specifying the name), the Russophone commenters immediately identified it
Now what does this story tell us about the reality we live in?
First. The common and obvious knowledge does not transcend through the linguistic barriers
What constitutes the obvious for the speakers of Russian or Mandarin rarely ever diffuses into the Anglophone space
The wall is largely impenetrable
Second. Putin is most probably sane. I don't say he is good, or that he is "rational". I just say that as long as he keeps a jester and tolerates his teasing he most probably has not gone mad yet
And vice versa, removing a jester would be a good marker of him getting insane
Third. The jester was selected based on the ruler liking his jokes. Therefore, the character of the jokes reflects the character of a ruler
Based on Kolesnikov's jokes, Putin seems to be the most naturally pessimistic person to have ruled Russia in its verifiable history
The end
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What I am saying is that "capitalist reforms" are a buzzword devoid of any actual meaning, and a buzzword that obfuscated rather than explains. Specifically, it is fusing radically different policies taken under the radically different circumstances (and timing!) into one - purely for ideological purposes
It can be argued, for example, that starting from the 1980s, China has undertaken massive socialist reforms, specifically in infrastructure, and in basic (mother) industries, such as steel, petrochemical and chemical and, of course, power
The primary weakness of this argument is that being true, historically speaking, it is just false in the context of American politics where the “communism” label has been so over-used (and misapplied) that it lost all of its former power:
“We want X”
“No, that is communism”
“We want communism”
Basically, when you use a label like “communism” as a deus ex machina winning you every argument, you simultaneously re-define its meaning. And when you use it to beat off every popular socio economic demand (e.g. universal healthcare), you re-define communism as a synthesis of all the popular socio economic demands
Historical communism = forced industrial development in a poor, predominantly agrarian country, funded through expropriation of the peasantry
(With the most disastrous economic and humanitarian consequences)
Many are trying to explain his success with some accidental factors such as his “personal charisma”, Cuomo's weakness etc
Still, I think there may be some fundamental factors here. A longue durée shift, and a very profound one
1. Public outrage does not work anymore
If you look at Zohran, he is calm, constructive, and rarely raises his voice. I think one thing that Mamdani - but almost no one else in the American political space is getting - is that the public is getting tired of the outrage
Outrage, anger, righteous indignation have all been the primary drivers of American politics for quite a while
For a while, this tactics worked
Indeed, when everyone around is polite, and soft (and insincere), freaking out was a smart thing to do. It could help you get noticed
People don’t really understand causal links. We pretend we do (“X results in Y”). But we actually don’t. Most explanations (= descriptions of causal structures) are fake.
There may be no connection between X and Y at all. The cause is just misattributed.
Or, perhaps, X does indeed result in Y. but only under a certain (and unknown!) set of conditions that remains totally and utterly opaque to us. So, X->Y is only a part of the equation
And so on
I like to think of a hypothetical Stone Age farmer who started farming, and it worked amazingly, and his entire community adopted his lifestyle, and many generations followed it and prospered and multiplied, until all suddenly wiped out in a new ice age
1. Normative Islamophobia that used to define the public discourse being the most acceptable form of racial & ethnic bigotry in the West, is receding. It is not so much dying as rather - failing to replicate. It is not that the old people change their views as that the young do not absorb their prejudice any longer.
In fact, I incline to think it has been failing to replicate for a while, it is just that we have not been paying attention
Again, the change of vibe does not happen at once. The Muslim scare may still find (some) audience among the more rigid elderly, who are not going to change their views. But for the youth, it is starting to sound as archaic as the Catholic scare of know nothings
Out of date
2. What is particularly interesting regarding Mamdani's victory, is his support base. It would not be much of an exaggeration to say that its core is comprised of the young (and predominantly white) middle classes, with a nearly equal representation of men and women
What does Musk vs Trump affair teach us about the general patterns of human history? Well, first of all it shows that the ancient historians were right. They grasped something about nature of politics that our contemporaries simply can’t.
Let me give you an example. The Arab conquest of Spain
According to a popular medieval/early modern interpretation, its primary cause was the lust of Visigoth king Roderic. Aroused by the beautiful daughter of his vassal and ally, count Julian, he took advantage of her
Disgruntled, humiliated Julian allied himself with the Arabs and opens them the gates of Spain.
Entire kingdom lost, all because the head of state caused a personal injury to someone important.