Musings on quantum mechanics (a thread with a few technical terms):
It's interesting how the big questions in science are always there, but they jostle for position as to which is fashionable at any given time and for any generation of scientists and philosophers. 1/17
If you ask philosophers of physics or physicists working on what are called 'foundational problems' what is the big issue they are grappling with today many will likely tell you it's either the origin of the arrow of time or the nature of quantum reality. 2/17
The latter of these (what's actually going on in the quantum world) has been something I have been thinking about for forty years. And, spoiler alert, I have not reached a conclusion to be revealed at the end of this thread. 3/17
As a PhD student in the 80s, I would complain that I hated the Copenhagen view because it explained nothing - it was no more than a recipe, a set of rules to make sense of the results of experiments and said nothing about what an electron is doing when I’m not looking. 4/17
My supervisors would tell me to, well, 'shut up and calculate' [a famous phrase used to describe the Copenhagen 'positivist' view]. An electron isn't a particle or a wave, they would say - an electron is an electron is an electron. Now go and calculate that S-matrix. 5/17
I remember in the late 80s attending a lecture by John Bell at Queen Mary College London and feeling relief that here was a world leading physicist who had the same concerns as me. I wasn’t aware of the, at the time largely underground, industry in foundations of QM. 6/17
Fast forward to today and I would argue that the majority of those people I mentioned earlier (philosophers of physics or physicists working on foundational problems) have (the way I like to think) come round to my way of thinking… 7/17
…that Bohr, great though he was, has a lot to answer for in persuading generations of physicists to accept that there is nothing more we squeeze out of quantum mechanics in the way of an explanation of reality beyond what we can actually measure. 8/17
So, what is the growing consensus today? I would say that people are coming round to siding with Einstein in the famous Einstein and Bohr debate - not that Einstein's hope that quantum mechanics was incomplete and that there had to be LOCAL hidden variables… 9/17
… that has now been quashed by both theory and experiment, but that the spirit of his position is the right one, that physics should be about how the world actually is (ontology) rather than only what we can say about the world (epistemology). 10/17
So, this brings me to the issue of what is exactly IS going on. If we acknowledge that, as the philosopher Tim Maudlin says, the Copenhagen view is just a recipe and what we want is a physical theory of reality, then most would agree that there are three frontrunners. 11/17
All of them work, in the sense of agreeing with the results of every experiment so far devised, and all explain in very different ways what is going on in the quantum realm, but we have yet to find a way of choosing between them that we can all agree on. 12/17
They are: (1) Everettian many worlds (2) Bohmian hidden variables and (3) spontaneous collapse models. All give descriptions of a physical reality underpinning the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics. 13/17
All have their advocates, and all have their problems, which are of course highlighted by their opponents. But none of them have problems that are complete deal breakers. And people are working hard on all fronts to solve these issues to see which comes out on top. 14/17
We don't know which of these (or even a completely different interpretation) will eventually emerge as the correct one, but that's for physicists to figure out. Nature behaves in a certain way: either the world branches into different realities or it doesn't; … 15/17
…either the quantum state collapses randomly and spontaneously, or it doesn't; either there are real particles with definite positions and momenta at all times that are guided by a quantum wave or there aren't. 16/17
Now that I teach a masters course on decoherence theory and head a research group on quantum foundations I can legitimately start thinking about and working on this stuff. And no one is going to tell me to shut up and calculate. 17/17
18/17 (!) Oh I forgot to add: I am what’s called a realist, but agnostic on the different interpretations. As people who know me know, I have a soft spot for de Broglie-Bohm pilot wave theory, for reasons that I might explain in another Twitter thread one day.
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Someone on Twitter asked me the other day if I could compose a tweet thread explaining the famous quantum measurement problem. Since I am off work for a few days I thought I’d take up the challenge. So, here goes: quantum measurement in 22 tweets… 1/22
Firstly, this is difficult stuff. If it weren’t, then cleverer people than me would have figured it out years ago. Also, this is Twitter and it’ll take more than a few tweets to explain properly. If you want to understand more, you’ll have to put in the work yourselves. 2/22
Many non-scientists, and even some scientists, believe that the act of measuring, or just observing, something on the quantum scale, like what an atom is doing, somehow requires human consciousness. This is wrong. But the truth is much stranger. 3/22
1/3 This report from the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) is useful
(cas.mhra.gov.uk/ViewandAcknowl…). In summary...
2/3 Published efficacy between doses of Pfizer vaccine was 52.4% (95% CI 29.5-68.4%). This means that roughly speaking efficacy is anywhere between 30% and 70% before serving jab. But most the vaccine failures occurred shortly after 1st dose, the period before...
3/3 ... any immune response is expected. But using data for those cases observed between day 15 and 21, efficacy was estimated at 89% (95% CI 52-97%), suggesting that short term protection from dose 1 is very high from day 14 after vaccination.
1/6 We need clear, transparent information on issue of delaying the 2nd Pfizer jab from 3 weeks to 12 weeks. Pfizer don't know if this is a good idea because there's no data on efficacy of 1st vaccine beyond the study interval of 21 days after which the 2nd was administered.
2/6 When UK government health advisors say that a "great majority" of initial protection comes from the first jab, what does that mean? So, we go back to source. Here is the paper in the NEJM nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
3/6 It states:
"Between the first dose and the second dose, 39 cases in the BNT162b2 group and 82 cases in the placebo group were observed, resulting in a vaccine efficacy of 52% (95% CI, 29.5 to 68.4) during this interval and indicating early protection by the vaccine.."
Some stats on the importance of accuracy of antibody tests for Coronavirus:
1/7 Let us say that a test of whether you have had the Coronavirus, and have built up immunity, or have not had it, and have no immunity, is 90% accurate.
2/7 By which I mean there is a 10% chance it says you’ve had it when you haven’t (a false positive) and a 10% chance that it says you haven’t had it when in fact you have and are immune (a false negative).
3/7 Now if current estimates are correct and the mortality rate of covid19 is ~1% and there have been 33,000 deaths in the uk, this means there have been 3.3 million infections thus far, which is 5% of the population (in line with estimates in France and Spain).
1/6 A quick look at Twitter this morning and I see the conspiracy theorists are getting shoutier. So I wanted to share a few thoughts. I know it's pointless to argue against a conspiracy theorist, but consider this:
2/6 Conspiracy theorists argue they are being 'scientific'. After all, they will say, they too are sceptics and rationalists who question everything, don't accept dogma and value the importance of evidence. But the truth is a conspiracy theorist is the opposite of a scientist:
3/6 ...They will dismiss any evidence against their 'theory' or even seek to assimilate it and interpret it in a way that confirms rather than repudiates their core idea, thus making their theory unfalsifiable, which BY DEFINITION, means it is unscientific.
The Life Scientific is back on @BBCRadio4 next Tuesday when my guest is the fascinating and highly amusing @RichardWiseman – recorded in August at the Edinburgh Festival.
Next week's episode will be the 195th since I began, exactly 8 years ago, when my very first guest was the Nobel Prize winner, Sir Paul Nurse.
This means we'll hit the 200th episode during this run, which is pretty remarkable. If I could remember all the science I discussed with all my guests I'd be a polymath.