Russian capacity for the production of weaponry is critically dependent upon the uninterrupted supply of the machine tools and parts by the U.S. allies
Why? For the lack of alternatives. China is not an alternative people think it is, esp. when it comes to parts
Sanctions are inefficient in undermining the Russian weaponry production capacities, as they do not adequately target its main chokepoint - production base. More specifically, machining equipment which is necessary to produce precise components and, therefore, weaponry
To be fair, China *is* advancing. Compare the Russian import structure in the 2000s vs 2010s. But it is not anywhere as advanced as laymen believe (yet)
FYI: The advance of China is largely due to localisation of Europ/Jap/Taiw producers, JVs with them and technology transfer
If you are interested in this war ending sooner, you must be actively pressuring politicians and the decision makers to cut the export of all machining equipment, parts & expendables to Russia
Actions are moved by incentives. Data is not an incentive. But the public pressure is
You can find a very brief introduction into how the global machine tool market looks like and what it means in the military context here
The media and the academia are obsessed with the unimportant. Once you interiorise this principle, their obsession with "Putin's philosopher" Dugin becomes almost forgivable
There's no philosopher at the Putin's court
The king doesn't need a philosopher
He needs a jester🧵
As I said, obsession with the (supposed) "philosopher behind the Putin's plan" is almost forgivable, considering that the dominant Western discourse in Russia is mostly a projection of Western intellectuals. They project their fears, of course. But also their hopes and dreams
Being the King's Philosopher, a brain behind the tyrant, has been a wet dream of intellectuals at least since the days of Plato. It almost always ended the same. After all these millennia, intellectuals could have learned a basic truth:
1. Kornilov putsch fails 2. Purges against its real or imaginary supporters follow 3. Two months later the Bolsheviks come to power
Focusing on whether the putsch was orchestrated by the government (it probably was) is missing the point. Staged or not, its consequences are real
There is often an implicit assumption that the "serious" ventures have serious consequences, while the "non-serious" (stage, orchestrated, just a show) ones don't
This assumption is completely and fundamentally wrong. It is usually the other way around
As a general rule, anything serious and long lasting can commence only non-seriously
Consequently, what had been started seriously will most probably lead nowhere
Prigozhin's mutiny looks shady. And that is fine. Many coup stories sound shady even in retrospective, as they often included some elements of 4D chess by the political leadership. Still, their consequences were real.
So let's talk of the consequnces🧵
Raising a mutiny in the south, far off from the capital may sound like a dumb plan. Unless this was not a plan at all. My hypothesis: it looks like a false start
23 June - Wagner mutiny
24-25 June - "Scarlet Sails" in St Petersburg
Both Putin and Medvedev were expected to come
The ruling gang is first and foremost a St Petersburg gang. The core of the Russian leadership including Putin, Medvedev and many others including Prigozhin were originally an extensive crony network from St Petersburg. With Putin's succession in 2000 they became the regime
The mutiny is real. It is also unlikely to succeed. Most probable outcome is:
1. The mutiny fails 2. The regime stands (for a few months) 3. Upon its suppression, regime becomes increasingly dysfunctional -> falls
In other words, Kornilov putsch🧵
Let's start with the "real" part. A sizeable force of Wagner troops have left their positions in East Ukraine and entered the Russian region of Rostov Oblast. This is a real mutiny
It is also likely to fail. Not because there is few of them, but rather because they are far away
Russia is a hypercentralised country. Control over Moscow is the only thing that matters. And it is unlikely these fellows will be able to reach it, let alone occupy it
"Only those deserve to be called Communists who understand that it is impossible to build or implement socialism without learning from the [corporate] trust founders"
(Vladimir Lenin. On the Left-Wing Childishness. May 1918)
"For socialism is not a figment of the imagination, but the implementation and application of what had been created by the [corporate] trusts by the proletarian vanguard, which has seized power"
"We, the party of the proletariat, have no other way of acquiring the ability to organise large-scale production ... except by acquiring it from the first-class capitalist experts"