Thread by @Andric1961

On the current situation in the Balkans: The EU is threatening sanctions against the Kurti government in Kosovo, but not against Serbian leaders Vucic and Dodik. This is absurd, mildly put. But there seems to be an explanation for Western leniency towards Belgrade.

Serbia’s president Vucic had his thugs attack NATO-soldiers in Kosovo and the reaction of the West is close to zero. Milorad Dodik, Putin’s closest ally in Europe, announces that he longer recognizes the Constitutional Court of BiH. But no word of sanctions from the EU.

So why is Belgrade (almost) everybody’s darling in the West all of a sudden? As far as the US are concerned, it seems to have to do with the importance of Serbian weapons shipped via intermediaries to Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1674485823348023301

If one is to believe what a highly placed US source recently said in an off-record conversation, US leniency has a lot to do with the fact that Serbian ammunition is “hugely important” for the Ukrainian army.
dw.com/en/to-whom-is-…

While it is important to the West, Serbia uses the current constellation to see how far it can go in the attempt to unite the “Serbian world” (formerly known as “Greater Serbia.”) Means uniting Serbia with Northern Kosovo und Republika Srpska, maybe later Montenegro.

But Serbia is indirectly aided by a government in Kosovo that makes it easy for Vucic to look pragmatic and sincere. Washington and Brussels push for what they (mistakenly?) think will calm down the tensions in Kosovo:

The Serbian minority of the young state should be allowed to found an association of their majority-communities and enclaves in order to organize the everyday life of their ethnic group largely independently.

Such an association is actually an obligation signed by one of Kurtis predecessors, Hashim Thaci, in EU mediated talks. As opposition leader Kurti promised he would never accept such an association of Serb majority municipalities.

While in opposition it is easy to say this and that. As a Prime Minister, Kurti was reminded of an old rule in international relations: Pacta sunt servanda.

Claims that an association of Serb municipalities could be “a second Republika Srpska” and thus destroy the state of Kosova from within are not convincing. There are 31% Serbs in 🇧🇦 (2013 census), compared to some 6% Serbs in 🇽🇰, mostly living in enclaves in the south.

An association of Serb municipalities, concerned with spatial planning, garbage collection, basic health care etc. would not be able to block foreign policy decisions of the state. (As Republika Srpska in Bosnia can and does)

Of course, there is a justified question in Prishtina: What do we get out of all this? The concern seems to be that even if Kosovo follows through and fulfills all western demands, it will get next to nothing.

If only half of what Kosovo sources claim about the way EU-negotiator Miroslav Lajcak leads the talks is true, it is understandable that they do not trust him. No one in their position would.
koha.net/en/look/381765…

Not only Kosovo has not fulfilled its obligations from the Brussels mediated talks. But for some reason, Lajcak does not seem to be bothered by Serbia’s omissions.

Kurti said is ready to sign the EU-negotiated papers and annexes, while Vucic said he is not. But then again, maybe EU-negotiation is overrated in its importance anyway.

Athens and Skopje solved their long-standing differences not via EU mediation but because there were two governments (Tsipras/Kotzias and Zaev/Dimitrov) that actually wanted a solution.

Concerning reciprocity, one could also have a closer look at the Albanians in South-west Serbia and the Muslims in Sandzak. How about an association of Albanian majority minicipalities in Presevo or Muslims in Sandzak, mirroring the plans for the Serbian association in Kosovo?

Some more thoughts via F.A.Z.: