1/ 90% of crypto’s market carnage last year ties back to the SEC’s utter incompetence and prioritization of impossible technical compliance over investor protection. twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
2/ I’m talking of course about the spot ETF refusals and the Grayscale products, which are “SEC Reporting” Trusts attempting to convert to ETFs, but blocked on specious technical grounds. Famously: spot markets are “not regulated” but SEC is ok with those markets’ derivatives.
3/ This paved the way for the GBTC trade: investors created GBTC shares with Bitcoin due to imbalances in demand for GBTC shares vs spot BTC.
For a while, GBTC had a premium that savvy investors could harvest in return for creating new shares. 3AC and BlockFi did this in size.
4/ When the premium flipped to a discount some investors were caught offsides. And some - who had slammed the GBTC trade with leverage - had underwater GBTC shares pledged as collateral to the same Grayscale affiliate that lent to these investors AND served as Grayscale’s broker.
5/ GBTC shares were Schrödinger’s collateral. Impaired only if you looked in the box and had to sell them…they continued to be backed 1:1 by the Bitcoin that created them. But SEC rules and utter idiocy prevented investors from converting back to those same locked Bitcoin.
6/ Genesis was the only lender that would treat underwater GBTC shares as good collateral - because their sister company Grayscale is the only legal entity that can trigger redemptions for the Trust’s Bitcoin.
Genesis had incentives to make risky loans to GBTC shareholders.
7/ Again, because the SEC is a sham institution with no real value to American investors, this setup was entirely legal. Still is.
And again, the SEC is blocking the fix for all impaired GBTC investors AND that is the only thing keeping Grayscale and DCG alive right now.
8/ SEC policies hurt GBTC investors to the tune of $6 billion while enriching Grayscale and the DCG parent to the tune of $600 million in annual revenue that CANNOT decline as no investors can redeem funds.
But it, of course, gets worse…
9/ The GBTC creditor relationships, and the incentives they created for risky Genesis loans, directly led to the blowups of 3AC and BlockFi. Suddenly those bankrupt creditors flipped from golden geese for DCG-Genesis to bombs that blew up Genesis’s balance sheet last spring.
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A new market structure bill just dropped in Congress. It’s a win this year for crypto to even get some attention in DC right now, after last year’s setbacks.
What this means 👇
2/ First, this is a v1, not a final product.
There is still a LOT of work to do to get to a viable piece of legislation, but this is a good starting point for a sensible market structure bill, and it delineates where authority might lie between the SEC and CFTC.
3/ Second, there is at least an attempt in this bill to operationalize the "Hinman test" or what constitutes "sufficient decentralization" of a crypto project.
This would likely mean significant SEC oversight, but could also open the door to something like a Safe Harbor.
2/ Bitcoin is 50% of the non-stablecoin market. Protecting bitcoin mining, self-custody, development, and surrounding infrastructure is paramount.
The "outside money" thesis says you should own a little bitcoin bc the US has been too reckless to trust. Own gold and digital gold.
3/ This is not a bad thing. Bitcoin is hardened and resilient. Bitcoin's ethos are the solid rock around which the rest of the industry has been built. It remains a "what if things go sideways" hedge.
But Bitcoin will never *not* be volatile in terms of purchasing power.
1/ It's been 24 hours to reflect on Chair Gensler's absolute train wreck of an oversight hearing yesterday.
Schadenfreude is satisfying, but here's the substance of how ineffective, and out-of-touch the Biden admin's financial regulators are right now.
2/ I've been saying (quite loudly) for two years that the Chair's "war on crypto" is about power, not policy. In particular, it's about placating his top (maybe only?) political booster: Sen Warren.
But when he is questioned by anyone other than spoon-feeding allies, he wilts.
3/ Gensler has spent 40 years (!!!) in finance and as a second-career bureaucrat, yet he still wasn't ready for primetime. He was totally unprepared.
He shrank in his chair from the moment @PatrickMcHenry began asking simple questions.
1/ I just sent a letter to a dozen Congressional leaders outlining the economic & technical potential of digital assets; refuting misinformation spouted by some offices, regulators, and the executive branch; and calling for prudent, effective crypto legislation.
Part 1:
2/ The letter is thoroughly documented.
Tldr: a) Congress must act urgently, b) the status quo will harm the US economy & national security, c) Congress should exercise oversight authority over the out of control financial regulators, d) it shouldn't be that hard.
Part 2:
3/ We need a coordinated CAMPAIGN for Crypto.
I'll be writing more about this in the weeks ahead, and invite other founders/investors to reach out for details.
The letter to Congress is a first step, but there is much more to do in the upcoming battles.
I’m sick of feeling like we have to apologize for our early stage and walk on egg shells around politicians and regulators.
We built a trillion dollar asset class with 100 million users in under 10 years with no institutional support and active encumbrances from government.
Meanwhile, the Fed prints trillions and debases the dollar. Banks deplatform you on a whim, privatizing gains and socializing losses. And our politicians overspend, waste our tax dollars, cripple our currency and credit, and face no accountability for poor performance.
Crypto is like other early stage, transformational tech markets. Volatile, but here for good.
For every SBF, there is a Vitalik who will have 100x the long term (positive) impact on society.
In a bear market especially, it’s about pioneers and brave innovators, not grift.
1/ For 2023 and 2024, we’ll need $100mm / year to hold the line on crypto in the US until the next administration.*
What does the campaign for crypto look like?
(*I am assuming Biden does not run for re-election.)
2/ $1mm each from 50 unicorns and top funds, $100k from 250 healthy US companies, $1000 from 25,000 individuals. We can make it work.
These are our hurricane insurance premiums, and they are critical.
3/ $25mm / year in soft money: exert influence in key congressional races and nudge presidential candidates to softer crypto positions. This is a bare minimum starting point.
$25mm / year in hard money: shows pols that real voters actually care about crypto beyond “nice to have”