Gennady Rudkevich Profile picture
Jul 8, 2023 8 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Went to the Holocaust Museum and learned something new:

1. The Nazis passed hundreds of anti-Semitic laws in their first year in power, but most were relatively minor and allowed for exemptions of popular groups (e.g., Jewish WWI veterans); some were even rolled back.
2. The non-Nazis in Hitler's cabinet ("moderate conservatives") convinced him to reverse several policies (like a permanent boycott on Jewish stores) by making pragmatic arguments about the implications for Germany's economy.
You can probably figure out the modern day implications for #1: movements of hate don't show all their cards right away, instead choosing to normalize hatred one small step at a time. They're happy to compromise initially because that makes the next hateful law easier to justify.
The second point relates to the first: the "moderate" allies of hateful groups are kidding themselves when they claim they support the hateful group as a way to rein in their excesses. All they do in the end is become complicit in the violence, making it easier to implement.
From the "moderate conservatives" to the Christian groups that allowed Nazi control of their churches to the Judenrat, the collaborators - many of whom believed they were doing the best they could in a bad situation - enabled a violent, but small minority to massacre millions.
Collaboration not only failed to prevent the "excesses" the collaborators believed they were preventing, but enabled them. Groups like the Nazis would never come to power and carry out their evil projects without the support of groups who ostensibly opposed those projects.
That also applies internationally: without isolationists demanding democracies stay out of German affairs and a certain type of realist who prefers to focus on the imaginary enemy while the real one is punching them in the face, the Nazis would be driven out of power before 1941.
It's interesting (and sad) how many different languages this is being quoted in. This is, unfortunately, a global problem; one that far too many are ignoring because of ignorance or because it's politically inconvenient to admit their allies are pursuing hate-filled policies.

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More from @grudkev

Jul 17
In political science, there is a lot of talk about the role of constitutions, courts, and the media in preserving democracy. But ultimately, you can't preserve democracy in the face of a popular majority that's either indifferent or actively hostile to it.
One of the most basic requirements for democracy is regular elections for top political offices where losers accept defeat. Without that, political violence becomes the main vehicle for political change.
But if most voters don't care when democratic norms are broken, why should the politicians? Despite what people might say in surveys, few have any idea what democracy actually entails and most will constantly redefine it in a way that benefits their in-group.
Read 5 tweets
Jan 8, 2023
America went from exporting democracy to exporting amateur coups.
Yes, protesters in Brazil have their own grievances, but without 1/6/21 there's no 1/8/23. Bolsonaro and his supporters modeled themselves on you know who. And regularly received his support. Not to mention talk of "election fraud" and military intervention.
P.S. The first tweet was a reference to the influence of the American constitution on countless constitutions throughout the world. I.e., the US exporting ideas. I am fully aware that the US directly undermined democratic governments.
Read 4 tweets
Nov 10, 2022
These are the results of the less important state races in Florida. The 18% margin of victory is comparable to Louisiana and Nebraska. Even if you factor in a relatively poor election year for Democrats, Florida is like Kansas and Missouri. So much for being a swing state. Image
Democrats should also be very concerned about New York and New Jersey. A lot of the people running for reelection in both states did 10+% worse than they did last time. Even if you account for a poor national climate, that's a huge loss. No guarantee those voters return in 2024.
In Long Island, a non-incumbent who attended the Jan. 6 "rally" is winning by 9%. The district is supposed to have a partisan lean of +3 or +4 for Democrats. Image
Read 5 tweets
Nov 7, 2022
People can disagree about many political topics. But someone refusing to acknowledge defeat and trying to stack election-related positions with authoritarian conmen isn't a political dispute - it's an existential one. My family didn't flee one dictatorship to live in another one.
Even if you agree with those authoritarian conmen on the issues today, who's to say you will tomorrow? Except it will be too late to vote them out of office. They have no loyalty to any ideology or their own supporters. Once they're in power, their only goal is to stay there.
Read about what happened in the 1920s and 1930s if you want to see what happens when voters care more about ideology or political differences than they do about the continued existence of democracy.
Read 4 tweets
Oct 23, 2022
An independent Russian media outlet - @mediazona_en - compiled data about Russian military casualties in Ukraine by Russian region. I have data on Russian elections and protests. Anyone interested in some basic correlations? Or are the results too obvious? en.zona.media/article/2022/0…
I have lots of numbers. None of them surprising. The best predictor of Russian military deaths per capita is the region's transfer rate (what portion of a region's budget comes from the federal government). Right behind that is regional rural unemployment. Some simple crosstabs:
In simple terms, a region heavily dependent on the federal government has a strong incentive to zealously carry out Putin's orders. Such regions suffered 2-3 times more deaths than ones less dependent on Moscow.
Read 9 tweets
Oct 18, 2022
One thing I haven't seen much about is why Russia retaliated more strongly after attacks on Crimea than attacks on Belgorod (Russian for 4 centuries). The obvious answer is this is less about Russian security and more about Putin's prestige. Crimea is his in a way Belgorod isn't.
Putin sees Crimea (and by extension the bridge that connects it to Russia) as a fundamental part of his legacy. Attacks against it undermines this legacy (along with the propaganda that went with the annexation). Consequently, losing Crimea would be politically fatal for Putin.
Moral of the story: Putin is going to fight harder for Crimea than for any other Ukrainian objective. He'll take Russia down with him if necessary because he simply cannot allow for it to be retaken.
Read 4 tweets

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