John Burn-Murdoch Profile picture
Jul 12 4 tweets 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
The UK mortgage time bomb numbers are bad enough as they are, but they get really sickening when you think of them as an effective pay cut.

An increase of £500 in monthly payments (coming to 1m households by 2026) is £6,000 per year, which equates to about a *£10,000 pay cut*
For the ~250,000 households whose monthly payments will go up by £1,000 or more, that’s equivalent to a pay cut of more than £20,000.

Just an astonishingly large hit to living standards.
Full Bank of England report with lots more charts here bankofengland.co.uk/financial-stab…
(exact equivalent pay cut depends on the incomes of the households in question, but those numbers are what you get if you make reasonable assumptions about the incomes people with those sized mortgages would be on)

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More from @jburnmurdoch

Jul 7
NEW: France’s riots may be subsiding, but their underlying causes persist

In France, immigrants face social exclusion, faring *far* worse than the native-born on almost every socio-economic indicator.

Far less integration than in UK, Germany even the US

https://t.co/7C7vNelFLSon.ft.com/46xX7gx
In Germany and the UK, immigrants and natives are roughly equally likely to be in poverty or in the bottom tenth of earners.

In France, just 11% of natives are in poverty, compared to 28% of immigrants, rising to a stunning 40% among the most recent arrivals.
Here’s a closer look at France & UK on unemployment among immigrants.

Right across England & Wales, native-born and foreign-born people have similar outcomes in the labour market.

In France, jobless rates are consistently higher among immigrants, rising above 20% in some areas.
Read 16 tweets
May 26
NEW: last week a group of US hardline conservatives brought the National Conservatism conference to London. It fell completely flat. Why?

Because Britain and America are completely different societies.

Key chart: UK Cons are *way* more liberal than US Reps on ~every measure. Image
On some issues, British Conservatives are even *more liberal than US Democrats*, such as on whether being Christian matters to being truly British/American, and — related — whether abortion is justifiable.

The British right is a million miles from the American Christian right. Image
But it’s not just religion, and these differences don’t just appear out of nowhere — they reflect the starkly different histories of the two countries.

Let’s consider race/ethnicity, for example...
Read 20 tweets
May 25
Conservative MP on the positive news about UK immigration 👍

With Britain struggling on so many fronts, being able to attract so much talent from around the world and pull levers to fill vital skilled jobs is a huge bonus.
If this was a sane country, that would be the dominant take this morning.

Britain has taken control of legal immigration, been generous to citizens fleeing war and political oppression, added loads of skilled workers, and is benefitting from its status on the world stage 🇬🇧💪
Have we taken in too many bright young people? 😱

Hired too many healthcare workers? 😧

Weird questions to ask.

Thankfully a clear majority of Britons think we should let people come as long as jobs are available, and Britain is world-leading on this point 🇬🇧🥇
Read 6 tweets
May 16
It remains deeply lolz that Britain’s hardline cultural conservatives continue to emphasise whiteness and Christianity as core British values, when white Brits are driving the decline in Christianity, and ethnic minorities have been adding to the ranks of British Christians
(not to mention the fact that virtually zero Brits think being white matters to being British, and only a small and shrinking minority think being Christian matters)
You can slice and dice the data however you like, but ultimately the types of people headlining at the National Conservatism Conference are part of a small and shrinking minority whose views are already way out of line with what most Brits actually think, and only growing more so
Read 6 tweets
May 16
My chart on Anglosphere exceptionalism in house building and housing affordability is doing the rounds again, so here’s the full thread and article discussing the likely factors at play
And here’s my podcast discussion with @davidmcw, touching on everything from long-standing cultural preferences for single family homes, to negative stereotypes of high-rises, to the role of common vs civil law
And if you’re interested in Anglosphere comparisons like these, I’ve done several more recently, including:

The US’s shameful record on life expectancy, which is driven by staggeringly high mortality among young adults
Read 7 tweets
Apr 28
NEW: we need to talk about NHS staff retention.

At a time when Britain’s healthcare system is acutely short of workers, *1 in 7* UK-trained doctors are practising overseas. No other developed country is like this, which immediately tells you there’s a problem.

Let’s dig deeper: Image
First, let’s address some common pushback.

Some argue that there can’t really be a staffing crisis if the NHS can consistently recruit from overseas to make up for these departures. But there are two problems with this view.
The first is that international flows of staff are imbalanced.

Most staff recruited from overseas return to work in their origin countries (or leave for a third country), and a significant portion of UK-trained staff leave.

Outflows exceed inflows: it’s a leaky pipe. Image
Read 17 tweets

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