Thread by @RadioFreeTom

Each time I see a story like this, it's a reminder that there is no actual Russian strategic goal in this war: The idea of "defeating" Ukraine and capturing it whole went down the tubes over a year ago. All that's left for Russia is fighting over map squares. /1

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1679258082302459904

This leaves Russian forces not knowing what to do even if they *could* win on the ground in various areas (which they're not.) As we teach at US war colleges: operational victories do not automatically translate to strategic success, esp if you have no idea what your goals are./2

I suppose "Do not keep losing territory in areas you invaded" is a "goal," but it's by definition temporary. "Capture Kyiv and force a surrender" was the Kremlin order but that plan went to shit; Russian forces now find themselves fighting because those are their orders. /3

The Ukrainians, OTOH, have a clear goal: Expel the invaders and restore control over national territory. The Russian goal has degraded to "don't let them do that, or at least not too fast," because Moscow is paralyzed and dumbfounded that its only plan failed instantly. /4

This means that Russia is going to keep feeding men into the meat grinder. But Putin doesn't care: He's trapped now, and has to keep inflicting murder on Ukrainians (and bleed his own army) because he doesn't know what else to do. /5

Prigozhin seemed to grasp this, but Prigozhin's not exactly Clausewitz either, and mostly he was pissed that his guys were getting shafted by the Defense Ministry.
These are not very bright guys, as the saying goes, and things are out of control. /6

Key problem nopw is that there's nothing to negotiate over. Even things Russia *claimed* to want - keeping Ukraine out of the West's orbit - are no longer possible.
The bigger problem is that Russia itself now has no idea why it's fighting. And you can't negotiate with that. /7

You can't negotiate with a state whose only goal is revenge for its own failures. All you can do is keep making them pay the price until they withdraw. /8x