Thread by @grok

***THREAD***

After withdrawing from Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI), #Russia is threatening all ships sailing to #Ukraine controlled ports as legitimate targets. Some ambiguity but threat is clear.

What could Russia actually do though?

Info->

🧵 https://t.co/vXAu8FzVS7hisutton.com/How-Russia-Cou…

The threat, reported in Ru media:
"The Russian Ministry of Defense announced that from 00:00 Moscow time on July 20, ships traveling through the Black Sea to the ports of Ukraine will be considered as carriers of military cargo"

"To ports" may also include "from ports"?

Remember that on the first day of the 2022 invasion Ru issued a prohibition on navigation in the NW Black Sea. Defined area down to the parallel 45-21 N, and from 0400 hr Feb 24 2022.

Several 3rd-country ships were subsequently attacked, attributed to Ru

Effective blockade

So what military threats does Ru have?

1. The most obvious way is with surface warships. Russia’s Black Sea Fleet has a number of warships including some of the smaller missile corvettes, which could be used. A merchant ship is no match for any of these.

We would expect ships to adjust their route to hug the Ukr controlled coast and then use Romanian territorial waters. This would limit the Russian ships’ ability to use most anti-ship missiles (SS-N-22 / likely -27) becoz clutter. So they would have to close to use cannons

Partly this would work by forcing the Ru ships to come closer to Ukraine, within range of Ukr's Harpoon / Neptune anti-ship missiles

*If* the threat only includes ships sailing *to* Ukrainian ports, then the inbound ships could try to hide behind the outbound ones, sort of. Every small part counts.

Back to Ru, what would be much harder for Ukr to counter is submarines. The Northern Black Sea is relatively shallow which is not optimal for Ru’s 5 KILO Class subs
But with Ukr lacking ASW weapons, so little they could do. And a torpedo is the ultimate ship-sinking weapon

And a torpedo is the ultimate ship-sinking weapon.

The best defense is to go as shallow as the ship dares

Russia could also leverage its air dominance over the northern Black Sea to launch fighter-bomber attacks. The use of BACKFIRE bombers seems less likely. Air attacks could be effective but, compared to submarine attacks, are relatively high risk.

Possibly this could force Ukraine to shift its air defenses however which might be advantageous to Russia.

Russia also has formidable Bastion-P and Bal anti-ship missile batteries on Crimea. These are less obvious unless the merchant ships continue to sail in open waters, but cannot be overlooked.

SS-N-26 could likely hit ships near coast, but $$$

Following a more traditional approach, Ru could conduct armed boardings. These could be done further south in int' waters. Warships and helos could be used. Following the Iranian playbook some ships could be seized (on whatever pretense) and sailed to Russian controlled ports.

The 2022 pre-BSGI blockade was initiated by attacking merchant ships, yet these were not admitted by Russia.
To carry out unattributed attacks at sea Russia would need to use fast small boats or drones. Possibly its own copy of Ukraine’s maritime drones which is known to exist.

Attacks could be conducted in Odesa by Ru special forces (Spetsnaz). Ru’s combat swimmer capabilities are less invested in than they used to be during the Cold War, but the capacity to launch a raid likely remains. Ironically, Russia uses a lot of Western acquired equipment.

Sea mines could also be used. These are more persistent and have the advantage that Ru could blame Ukr instead.

Or Russia could use a submarine to torpedo a ship, and then deny it. Any investigation would take days or months by which time things moved on

There are many ways Ukr and/or International community, likely led by Turkey, could respond. We shall see.

🧵End

Sorry, most of thread didn't post in first try.