Thread by @BrynnTannehill

I had a somewhat strange conversation with my father last night. To give you an idea of the demographics: he's white, Mormon, 70s, Republican, supports Ukraine, watches some (daytime) Fox News, but not the evening hosts. Has "uneasy" relationship w/ LGBT stuff. 1/n

He fits very much into that category of cognitive dissonance where he is trying to square the circle of what he's told about LGBT people, vs. having a kid and a grandkid who are LGBT. When I came out, he checked with my brother to see if I'd gone nuts. 2/n

Anyway, during a conversation yesterday I mentioned that both DeSantis and Trump had pledged to kick all trans people out of the military. My time in service, continued national defense work, and efforts to return to duty had previously changed his mind on the topic. 3/n

"Really?" he replied. "I hadn't heard that. Doesn't sound like what I'm hearing. But maybe you know more."

"Yeah, I'll send you some links to news articles."

"Ok, but I want AP, Reuters, UPI or something reliable."

"Sure, no problem." I told him. "I'll email it." 4/n

So I went to hunt down some links. I knew I'd seen the remarks. With Trump, it was a little bit difficult because the search engine mostly directed him to stuff he did back in 2017 and 2019.

I found one tiny blurb in RCP. 5/n realclearpolitics.com/video/2023/06/…

With DeSantis, it was relegated to local news only, namely coverage of a speech of his by the Sarasota Herald-Tribune. Yahoo news picked it up later. 4/n .heraldtribune.com/story/news/pol…

My conclusion was this: both Trump and DeSantis have made anti-transgender rhetoric one of their primary issues in their campaign promises. Military, medical, sports, bathrooms, etc... It pops up in most of their stump speeches. 5/n

Fox News daytime isn't covering it. They're more focused on criticizing Biden for his shoes or bemoaning the Barbie Movie or whatever agitprop is in the 24 hour cycle. Centrist and left media outside the gay press (LA Blade and LGBTQ Nation) aren't covering it either. 6/n

The anti-LGBTQ stuff is red meat for the base. But because no one in the US gives a damn what happens to LGBT people as a 2% minority, people who aren't completely invested in determining the fate of LGBT people in the US are largely oblivious. 7/n

This is just a continuation of a pattern dating to the 80s and the AIDS crisis, or the polling data from 2012 that showed the only people who really had strong feelings about same sex marriage were LGBT people and the super-religious. No one else would vote based on it. 8/n

The problem is, there's far more religious conservatives than there are LGBT people. And they have way more money. And they have an entire political machine devoted to giving them everything they want. Plus the courts. 9/n

While one party is vowing to "eradicate transgenderism" and passing "Millstone Laws" across 20+ states, the American media monoculture simply isn't covering it to the point of it being something anyone but the base (of either party) is aware of. This is a feature, not a bug. 10/n

Outlets like the NYT and Atlantic lack the vision to understand the likelihood and implications of onrushing singe party, right wing religious minoritarian rule (fascism). Talking about what will happen to LGBT people under fascism seems speculative, and no one cares 11/n

I believe that Fox News and others don't highlight Trump and DeSantis' anti-LGBT rhetoric for the same reasons as abortion:

a. It's taken for granted by the base that they are

b. It (generally) makes them look bad

The trans military ban was never supported by a majority. 12/n

Anyway, by my estimation we're at about 1935 when it comes to trans folks, and we're on track for a final solution being implemented around 2029 when Trump gets his third term.

If the public is even aware of it at all, they'll have no idea where it came from. 13/n