Yesterday the day was filled with meetings, some deals and agreements signed, speeches, and more. We also got a taste of pure grotesquerie, with conspiracy theories, Putin and Lvova-Belova ambling about. What is in store today? (Photo: TASS)
The day begins straight away with the parallel panels, covering as wide a range of topics as yesterday. (Not pictured: panels on space cooperation, healthcare, innovation, humanitarianism, agriculture, and a panel on exports.)
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It is 9h30 in St Petersburg and the summit is in full swing. The venue has been open since 8 and already many of the scheduled panels are ongoing. Who has arrived? What are the public discussions about? Let's take a look...
So, you arrived in St Petersburg,
you had your mandatory PCR test,
you unlocked your badge ID when receiving a negative result,
you took the shuttle bus from your hotel on to the venue (because they will not let you in without going on the shuttle!),
you followed the...
... official summit recommendations and arrived thirty minutes earlier to account for security procedures (!),
and now you are ready to enjoy the programme. What is ahead for you?
The second tour since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion, Lavrov is reportedly visiting South Africa, eSwatini, Botswana, Angola, Tunisia, Mauritania, Algeria and Morocco. As part of my Russia-Global South research, I will be… 1/
… following his moves in the continent closely.
The tour begins just after several US officials made high-level visits to the continent, Yellen and Nuland among them. The December US Africa Summit also likely played a role in conceiving the tour. 2/ issafrica.org/iss-today/serg…
This year, the second Russia-Africa summit is expected to take place in St Petersburg, too. The 2019 encounter was regarded as Russia's big move in the continent; most heads of state attended. Will the lightning strike twice? Will this new tour secure the summit's success? 3/
Catching up with this Izvestiya report on Russia-Africa: new affiliated ‘Russia house’ cultural centres opened in Algeria, Egypt, Mali and Sudan, with Angola next. The number of scholarships assigned to African states will nearly double. #RussiaGSiz.ru/export/google/…
Guinea 🇬🇳 will see its number of scholarships grow by four—Russia used to have a large influence there until a coup deposed long-term Putin ally Alpha Condé.
Mali 🇲🇱 – which used to have a Western-aligned gov – will grow to 290 scholarships a year from just 35.
These ‘culture centres’ will almost certainly activate Russia's new propaganda message for the ‘Global South’: that of Russia being the leader of an ‘anti-colonial’ movement—a lazy re-run of Soviet Cold war propaganda. 😴
Starting with the conclusions:
I expect mobilisation to push people to engage in active resistance, but there is no clear path to armed conflict just yet. ‘Separatism’ is unlikely to come back to Dagestan. 🧵
The popular view of Dagestan's politics is that they happen somewhere between extremism and separatism, and the authority's attempts to contain them.
Indeed, the Caucasus Emirate and Daesh/ISIS have many times featured in news coming from the region, and for a reason.
(Map: propaganda portrayal of the ‘provinces’ proclaimed by ISIS in the North Caucasus, never actually governed by them of course.)
KARAKALPAKSTAN MEGATHREAD: Did Uzbekistan Avert Its Terminal Crisis?
To understand today's crisis in Karakalpakstan, one must look at recent events as the result of long-festering grievances and a long-standing constitutional crisis in Uzbekistan.
In a glimpse, the protests are a marginal crisis in a marginal part of Central Asia. The region is among Uzbekistan's poorest and least populated. Yet, the decision to end Karakalpakstan's...
autonomy and its consequences point to how essential the Autonomous Republic is to Uzbekistan—even more so now that the decision seems to be undone. Without Karakalpakstan's continued existence as an autonomous entity, Uzbekistan would be transformed into a different state.
UofG Principal @UofGVC calls for support for the humanitarian funds prepared for the victims of the war.
The causes of the war are the first topic of the seminar. According to Putin, the ‘special operation’ was launched to ‘de-nazify’ Ukraine. Dr Aliyev – who has done fieldwork involving far-right groups in Ukraine – stresses that the far-right in Ukraine is marginal.