For the 99.9% of Undervalued Shares readers who couldn't attend this week's dinner with investment legend Harris "Kuppy" Kupperman in person.
Read on for @hkuppy's (slightly paraphrased) thoughts on…
1/ … when to sell physical uranium holdings: "I am going to sell when the supply and demand go one of two ways: i) the price goes up, then we will sell because I was proven right; ii) a bunch of new mines comes online, and it turns out I was wrong."
2/ … an eventual target price for uranium: "I think if it gets to 'escape velocity', which is above USD 65, I genuinely think the price will go to at least a few hundred, potentially a few thousand. … I have never seen a commodity with this kind of deficit."
3/ … being forced to sell one of his 'core bets': "I'd probably choose the newspapers, because they are probably the least imminent. I genuinely think uranium is imminent. I think offshore is actually happening. My other choice, Florida, is just booming."
4/ … investors' biggest blind spots: "I think most people right now don't believe that interest rates can go up. … People have been in this weird ZIRP world for 40 years, where rates are on a trend down, and they just do not understand that we will not return to this world."
5/ … the reason behind structural inflation: "All the previous drivers of disinflation are now in reverse. … We could now only grow our way out of our national debt, but Western governments hate economic growth. So, we can only default through debasement and money printing."
6/ … investing his own money over a hedge fund: "I'd probably be more concentrated on the stuff I really love. I feel like we spend about 90% of our energy on 20% of the portfolio. However, as a fund, you simply cannot own just five stocks. Even if they really are the best."
7/ … his investor hero: "I really appreciate Bob Robotti. … Robotti puts a bunch of semi-bankrupt companies together, they get synergies, and that industry goes from ten players to three or four. Margins go up, and the Return on Invested Capital goes crazy."
8/ … generating new investment ideas: "We mostly look around and check on what government has done this week that is really stupid. … This creates a lot of opportunity for investing as they don't care about effects that happen beyond the election..."
9/ … his favourite author: "That's definitely Jim Rogers. 'Investment Biker' is the classic that everyone should read first, but his subsequent books are just as entertaining and insightful. I also really like the late Sam Zell."
10/ … a recommended (training) book: "That would be 'Tomorrow's Gold'. It's by Marc Faber. I just read it again. I read it all the time. It is really the best book there is. ... Just live and breathe this book."
11/ … what he likes best about our industry: "Our industry is truly fascinating. There are simply so many ways how to go about it! You can choose your own idol or create your own adventure."
End/ Interested in the long-form version of this article? Move over to:
Following the EU and US sanctions, is there a glimmer of hope for owners of depository receipts of Russian companies?
If you are affected by this issue, today's Weekly Dispatch is a must-read.
1/ Russian ADRs and GDRs are an administrative nightmare for all parties involved. Banks and brokerage firms have to bear huge costs to help their clients, which will disincentivise some to even dedicate time to it. Hence, many customers feel stranded and left alone.
2/ Many owners of Russian ADRs and GDRs managed to open a so-called C account with a Russian firm and got their depository receipts converted into ordinary shares that are now held in this account (also often called S account – a brokerage account with limited functions).
A week ago, a group of 15 intrepid Undervalued Shares readers visited Istanbul. An intense three days of nonstop fact-finding!
How did it all go, and what were our key learnings?
1/ What are the Turkish companies worth taking a closer look? Our visit entailed meetings with publicly listed companies across a range of industries. The personal presentations by C-suite executives proved hugely informative!
2/ MLP Care / MLP Saglik Hizmetleri is Turkey's largest private hospital group. @mlpcare has an asset-light model, low treatment costs, and a fast break-even for new hospitals. With private care only comprising 25% of Turkey's healthcare sector, $MPARK should have room to grow.
2/ Weekly Dispatch – Applus Services: bidders and activists ante portas?
Private equity players and activists are having their eyes on @applus $APPS. The Spanish certification firm could generate an attractive short- to medium-term return.
Burberry – now more than just a takeover candidate
Fund managers have singled out British luxury brand @Burberry $BRBY as their #1 candidate for a potential takeover.
With a potential bid still looming in the air, does Burberry stock have further to run?
1/ Burberry stock is up 36% since September 2021 when Undervalued Shares last featured it, more than delivering on the 30% upside highlighted at the time. Burberry's new leader is one of the reasons why the stock has done well.
2/ CEO Jonathan Akeroyd joined from @Versace in April 2022, and vowed to make Burberry "British" again. Together with new creative director David Lee (previously Bottega Veneta), he set out a strategy to increase sales from GBP 2.8bn to GBP 4bn over the next three to five years.
250 Weekly Dispatches since September 2018, phew 😅
A true milestone and a good moment to take a quick breather and focus on the factor without which Undervalued Shares wouldn't exist.
1/ The Undervalued Shares readership is quite special. Some of my biggest fans (@investorenpaar, who also dubbed Friday the "Swen Lorenz Day") even created a painting for me! See for yourself – here's their interpretation of my 2007 book's cover image.
2/ Another reader sends a gift every year. Be it a book to help inspire and inform my work or an ID document to use "should someone ever have the audacity to question your card carrying capitalist credentials", these thoughtful gifts are always appreciated!
Turkey is not your run-off-the-mill equity market, even though it made impressive gains in 2022 – up 110% in dollar terms!
The country's upcoming elections in May could be a game changer.
What opportunities are there for investors?
1/ Any analysis of Turkey has to start with its controversial ruler, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. For foreign investors, Erdoğan's worst misdeeds include his unconventional economic policies, such as a wave of public spending aimed at students, workers, business owners, or commuters.
2/ As a result of Erdoğan's manipulating monetary policies, the Turkish lira has lost 94% of its value compared to the US dollar since 2007. It's not a pretty picture, so why have Turkish stocks been up so much last year?