Thread by @prz_chojecki

I gave you PEPE at $1m marketcap, you could have done 150x

I gave you UNIBOT at $100,000 marketcap

I gave you PENDLE at...

You've probably seen many such claims on Twitter. I've looked into actual data from my past videos to see how much you could have really made.

🧵⤵️

1/ Would you be profitable if you would jump into every single narrative this year featured on my channel?

The short answer is yes but the actual results depend.

Let’s have a look at Narratives I covered on PC Crypto channel, with respective coins in each category + loss/gain

2/ You will be able to see all data on my Substack here:

ATH means all-time high after I covered it on my channel (it happens than the real ATH was sometimes before I reviewed the project). https://t.co/uOY2SA5DCbpccrypto.substack.com/p/narrative-ca…

3/ x is the multiplication done on the initial capital counting from the price on the date of a video to ATH. If >1 then it’s a gain, if =1 then it’s a loss usually.

You have to look at the current price. Usually a lot of projects fall when the narrative goes out of fashion.

4/ First Narrative = AI Coins

I covered majors on 10th Jan 2023. Here the biggest winner is SingularityNet AGIX. You could have made 9x if you bought when I covered it on my channel and sold around ATH. Still 4x if you hold till now.

5/ AI coins were big in Jan-Feb 2023.

I also covered AI small caps in February with mixed results. Still a bit of a run up but most coins here ended up with a loss.

You have to be early to the narrative!

6/ Meme coins are a pure function of attention. I like memecoins because of that but they are a bet on how long a project can hold attention. The biggest gains and the biggest losses category.

Memecoin season started in April with PEPE.

7/ 2nd Narrative = MEMECOINS

I covered Pepe on 18th April and you could have made massive 19x. (I didn't, sold around 5x which shows how hard it is to hit these multiples).

Also covered a bunch of 2nd/3rd wave like $BEN $BITCOIN $PEPE2 - with 10x on Bitcoin.

8/ As you can see meme coins could lead to massive gains with multiple 5x/7x to get.

However losses were also substantial as memecoins are more volatile than other crypto coins.

9/ Another takeaway is that you want to get the leader of the category - PEPE in the case of memecoins, AGIX in the case of AI coins. These produce the best gains.

When there's a second wave ($BITCOIN), you could also get great multiples on these.

10/ 3rd Narrative = LSDfi

Liquid Staking Derivatives is a category of protocols built on top of staked ETH like Lido and RocketPool. Their primary goal is to provide more yield than just staking as well as give more flexibility.

11/ I covered Pendle early on in February then got more videos on LSDfi later.

PENDLE here was the biggest winner with 12x gains and was a catalyst for the entire category. Other tokens were pretty stable with much smaller gains.

Again - follow the leader!

12/ 4th Narrative = Telegram bots

Telegram bots are automatic airdrop hunting, trading or getting information in one place. The leading project in this narrative is Unibot.

This is an ongoing narrative!

13/ I covered Unibot, LootBot and other crypto bots just last week, so it might be too early to talk about the multiples.

Definitely I was too late on Unibot, even though I had it on my 'to-review' list for some time. Still almost a 3x if you were to buy $UNIBOT on 19.07 so...

14/ the moment I talked about Unibot on my channel.

We'll see how this narrative unfolds.

15/ CONCLUSION

Making money with narrative trading - chasing shiny new thing/story/coin - is definitely possible.

I was pretty early on my channels to most of the narratives/coins - this is not to say that I will be and you should follow me blindly. Always DYOR!

16/ Nothing here is financial advice.

Let's see the actual multiples, assuming a simple strategy - you put $100 into each of the 34 mentioned projects:

-15 AI coins
-10 meme coins
-5 LSDfi coins
-4 bot coins

17/ Now we're going with a simple strategy.

You hold the coin till you get a particular x (say 5x) or a loss of 50%.

So 5x TP, 0.5x SL.

18/ In the 5x case, assume we have sold all the 7 projects (AGIX, PEPE, WOJAK, TURBO, BEN, BITCOIN, PENDLE) with 5x and are selling all the rest with the average loss of 50% (for simplification), then the total gain is

(5x7 + 0.5x27)/34=48.5/34=1.42

so a 42% gain!

19/ For 10x scenario we could have (10x3+0.5x31)=45.5/34=1.33, so we actually have a 33% gain!

For 7x, we have (7x5+0.5x29)/34=49.5/34=1.45 so a 45% gain.

For 3x, we have (3x12+0.5x22)/34=47/34=1.38 so a 38% gain.

20/ For 2x, we have (2x18+0.5x16)/34=44/34=1.29 so a 29% gain.

For 1.5x, we have (1.5x22+0.5x12)/34=39/34=1.14 so a 14% gain.

21/ Under these assumptions it looks like the optimal strategy would be to either wait for 5x or 7x with projects, and sell the rest if you get 50% loss: i.e. 5x take profit, 0.5 stop loss.

22/ This is it!

I wanted to have a shot at "I called PEPE at..." and it seems like I did pretty well.

Never trust, always verify!

You can see my video discussion of this with more details here:

22 min! https://t.co/k9oHwsyD5f

23/ If you want to get the new crypto narratives as early as possible, follow me and retweet the first tweet of this massive thread

https://twitter.com/prz_chojecki/status/1685214962912722944

24/ If you like what I'm doing and want a general overview of all the ways to make money in crypto then check out my e-book: pcho.gumroad.com/l/make-money-i…