Thread by @bidetmarxman

In 2022, Nord Stream was bombed, forcing Germany to import gas from the US.

In 2023, the govt of Niger—France's largest supplier of uranium—was overthrown in a coup.

Are these events connected? 🧵

Since the Russia-NATO war in Ukraine began in early 2022, Germany’s energy mix has dramatically changed.

The first change involved banning the import of Russian coal into the EU in the summer of 2022, ostensibly as a response to Russia’s actions in Ukraine.

6 weeks later, in the largest act of industrial sabotage of the modern era, the Nord Stream undersea pipelines connecting Russia and Germany were bombed, irrevocably severing the Germany-Russia energy connection.

This dramatic loss of cheap Russian energy drove Germany to frantically scramble to make up the shortfall, which the US has been happy to oblige.

Beginning in 2022, the US began supplying expensive Liquified Natural Gas to Germany.

In order to import all this new LNG, Germany began constructing massive LNG terminals, far in excess of anticipated demand. Why build so much capacity unless you’re expecting additional demand that hasn’t yet materialized?

Enter Niger

Unlike Germany, France currently gets a huge proportion of its energy from nuclear power— approximately twice as much as it does from gas power stations.

To fuel these nuclear plants, France needs a constant supply of uranium. Despite this insatiable appetite, France has virtually no domestic production of uranium.

Until recently, France instead imports ~99% of its uranium from Niger.

But earlier this month, Niger’s government was overthrown in a military coup. France’s Niger embassy was burned and public statements by the coup leaders indicate that Niger intends to rapidly move toward nationalizing uranium.

On the surface, this is good. France has a many decades long history of brutally exploiting the people of Niger through colonial and imperial theft.

As such, kicking out France is unquestionably a prerequisite for establishing a sovereign Niger.

https://twitter.com/justinpodur/status/1685445251132014592

But this recent military coup—led by individuals with long US ties—has the unmistakable scent of a US-backed operation. To what benefit?

One reason could be to dismantle French energy independence in much the same way that last year’s Nord Stream attack did to Germany.

The parallels are striking.

In a repeat of the US-dominated media effort to confuse the public on responsibility for the Nord Stream bombings, the same transparent ploy is being used to misattribute blame in this recent Niger coup.

As such, it’s very likely that France is being forced into a position where its only choice to meet current energy demand is to build gas turbines to make up for the impending loss of nuclear power. And just like in Germany, expect the US to swoop in with overpriced LNG to “help”

But with temperatures soaring globally and an urgent need for decarbonization, why not renewables?

Because France knows the US plans to foment a war with China—the world’s renewable energy tech supplier—to ensure France heads down the path of fossil fuels instead.

So what should we make of this?

Should we dismiss the recent events in Niger and any future attempts by the global south to exert sovereignty over their resources as hopelessly compromised US-backed ops?

Absolutely not!

However we should remain keenly aware that we’re entering a new era in which, in order to delay collapse, the US is forcing former imperial partners underwater. And in order to do so, the resources of the global south are arguably the most important chess piece.