Thread by @ElaiRettig

Why is Israel giving up its rights to yet another disputed gas field, this time to Cyprus? Dr. Benny Spanier wrote an interesting piece for @ynetnews today. He argues that, unlike recent deals with Gaza and Lebanon, this decision entails some major missed opportunities. A thread:

The “Aphrodite” gas field was discovered in Cyprus waters by Noble Energy (now Chevron) in December 2012 and is estimated to contain 130BCM. It remains undeveloped to this day, partly because 10% of it falls into Israeli economic waters and belongs to another reservoir ("Yishai")

The two reservoirs (Aphrodite/Yishai), each owned by different private companies, have since entered a long legal dispute over development and revenue rights. Eventually, the Israeli & Cypriot governments tried to intervene and resolve the dispute with ultimatums, but to no avail

In recent months, a breakthrough occurred. After a visit to Israel by the Cypriot Energy Minister in June, it seems that Israel agreed that Cyprus “buys out” the Israeli concession. The deal will likely be announced during PM Netanyahu's upcoming visit to Cyprus.

At the same time, the Cypriots announced that the gas from Aphrodite would be exported to Egypt via a subsea pipeline (likely to become LNG for Europe). Spanier argues in his op-ed that while this seems to be a win-win situation for all sides, it's a net loss for Israel. But why?

Spanier argues that after Israel already conceded economic waters to Lebanon in October 2022, and then approved the “Gaza Marine” field in June 2023, it is now again conceding more economic waters without demanding anything meaningful in return, and it will face domestic backlash

Spanier lists 3 initiatives that Israel can push for in return for conceding sovereignty over the Yishai field: (1) Use this agreement to create a united front against Turkey and get it to drop its claims over the area (for example: in return for a pipeline from Israel).

(2) Demand that Cyprus (+Greece) pressure Lebanon into joining the East Mediterranean Gas Forum (EMGF). This can act as a restraining factor against Hezbollah during a violent exchange with Israel because an attack against Israel’s gas fields will now violate a regional agreement

(3) Demand that Cyprus take a clearer position in support of Israel with regard to Gaza. This is especially important following Israel’s approval of the Gaza Marine development and its concern that Hamas will use the revenue to fund militant activities instead of economic relief

Overall, Spanier claims that the gas fields in the EastMed are not just an “economic concern” but a geopolitical one, and when a major concession is given over a cross-border gas field, the conceding side needs to make sure that it's receiving adequate political gains.

See the full op-ed in Hebrew here:
And here's an English translation of the op-ed posted to the @HMSstrategy website: https://t.co/6stdHKaUJLynet.co.il/news/article/r…
hms.haifa.ac.il/index.php/en/c…