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Tyler Black, MD Profile picture
@tylerblack32
Aug 1, 2023 • 16 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
Big Book of Mortality
America, 2020-2022

We now have reliable mortality data for 3 years of the pandemic, 2020-2022. COVID as the underlying cause of death was the #3 killer of Americans.

On this graph, every cause of death causing >0.1/100k per year is graphed.

/1 For each of these graphs, we have multiple-layered line graphs. Y axis: logarithmic scale, rate of death per 100,000 X axis: ages 1-85+ plotted: each cause of death for the top 17 causes. This list is (all americans): #17 - Assault (75,329) #16 - Parkinsons (118,607) #15 - Septicemia (123,371) #14 - Hypertensive disease (127,888) #13 - Influenza/Pneumonia (142,144) #12 - Suicide (143,506) #11 - Transport accidents (144,058) #10 - Chronic liver disease (162,907) #9 - Kidney diseases (164,654) #8 - Diabetes mellitus (306,498) #7 - Alzheimer's (373,598) #6 - COPD/Chronic lung disease (442,14...
This is a cleaner version of the chart, where only the top 17 causes are graphed.

We can see that there are two causes that erupt after 50 (Parkinson's and Alzhiemer's).

External causes (Accidents, Suicides, Homicides) erupt early and stick around.

/2 same graph as previous
People under 30 die much less frequently, but COVID-19 cracked the top ten coming in at #9. COVID WAS A TOP TEN CAUSE OF DEATH UNDER 30.

External causes of mortality loom large in this group.

/3 #18 - HIV (626) #17 - Legal Intervention (632) #16 - Septicemia (1,283) #15 - Pregnancy or Postnatal (1,397) #14 - Chronic Liver Disease (1,480) #13 - COPD/Chronic Lung Disease (1,500) #12 - Cerebrovascular Accident (1,796) #11 - Influenza (1,895) #10 - Diabetes (2,461) #9 - COVID-19 (6,602) #8 - Heart Disease (8,307) #7 - Cancers (11,291) #6 - Congenital/Chromosomal Abnormalities (16,202) #5 - Complications of Delivery/Childbirth (29,205) #4 - Suicide (32,992) #3 - Assault (33,726) #2 - Transport Accidents (39,845) #1 - Non-transport Accidents (62,756)
This is why the "but kids rarely die from COVID" argument by covid denialists and the Urgency of Normal Ghouls is particularly awful - because young people rarely die of ANY diseases but of course we care very much about pediatric cancers and diabetes and other things.

/4
Looking at women, COVID is a top ten cause of death <12, gets to about 7th by 30, and ends up being the third leading cause of death amongst all American women.

External causes of mortality peak in female youth but overall are much less common than with men.

/5 #18 - Pneumonitis due to solids and liquids (J69) (33,994) #17 - Hypertensive disease (59,434) #16 - Assault (60,934) #15 - Septicemia (60,986) #14 - Parkinson's (72,491) #13 - Influenza/Pneumonia (74,030) #12 - Kidney Disease (85,957) #11 - Chronic liver disease (102,524) #10 - Transport Accidents (104,674) #9 - Suicides (114,098) #8 - Alzheimer's (115,644) #7 - Diabetes (173,616) #6 - COPD/Chronic Lung Disease (209,362) #5 - Cerebrovascular aciednts (212,226) #4 - Nontransport Accidents (328,987) #3 - COVID-19 (531,710) #2 - Cancers (955,534) #1 - Heart Disease (1,153,970)
Looking at men, external causes rank higher generally. At no age is COVID less than a top ten cause of death and it again ends up at #3 overall.

/6 same graph as previous but on linear scale
Data notes:

The rates (Y axis) per 100,000/year. They are plotted logarithmically as the elderly deaths would make it impossible to see younger deaths.

EG: this is the graph for men on a linear scale. Helpful for sorting out causes of death 75+, useless for most ages.

/7 #18 - Pneumonitis due to solids and liquids (J69) (33,994) #17 - Hypertensive disease (59,434) #16 - Assault (60,934) #15 - Septicemia (60,986) #14 - Parkinson's (72,491) #13 - Influenza/Pneumonia (74,030) #12 - Kidney Disease (85,957) #11 - Chronic liver disease (102,524) #10 - Transport Accidents (104,674) #9 - Suicides (114,098) #8 - Alzheimer's (115,644) #7 - Diabetes (173,616) #6 - COPD/Chronic Lung Disease (209,362) #5 - Cerebrovascular aciednts (212,226) #4 - Nontransport Accidents (328,987) #3 - COVID-19 (531,710) #2 - Cancers (955,534) #1 - Heart Disease (1,153,970)
In short & in conclusion, COVID IS A VERY IMPORTANT CAUSE OF DEATH AT EVERY AGE.

If you were a child, Top 10
if you were a young adult, Top 7
If you are middle aged, Top 3

/8
Covid minimizers, denialists, ghouls, and antivaxxers have abused the concept of infection fatality rate or age stratification to the point of uselessness: COVID-19 IS A ONCE IN A LIFETIME PANDEMIC THAT KILLED 1 MILLION AMERICANS, important at EVERY age.

/fin
also note to minimizers: - flu very much still a top 15 cause of death.
A shareable little graph, COVID was AT LEAST a top 12 cause of death at every age 1-85 Image
and finally, in the truest transparency, here is the entire dataset that created the graph:



feel free to check my work!docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
@RMHayes5 @PeterHotez Error non-transport accidents
@dccarbene @PeterHotez btw here's 'firearm deaths'. totally doable!

cdc wonder is an amazing database Image
@samjlord It was also largely on par with heart diseases, so it feels a lot to me like you cherrypicked your argument there.
hey, ghouls! no, COVID-19 deaths were not overcounted. in fact, almost all of the evidence we have tells us that COVID-19 deaths are undercounted

see:



and

https://t.co/wXcD7w8dPXbu.edu/sph/news/artic…
who.int/news/item/05-0…

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More from @tylerblack32

Tyler Black, MD Profile picture
Apr 10
We currently have almost zero explanatory power for autism aside from some very obscure genetic and prenatal influences.

We already know what has caused the autism "epidemic"... Increased awareness, broader diagnoses, and more screening/requests for assessment.
Bobby Kennedy frequently likes to say it was "1 in 10000 when [he] was a kid". It was not. Studies have shown that if we used modern diagnostics on we would arrive at similar rates, and syndromic presentations of youth for neurodiversity were IDENTICAL to those in the 80s.

/2
When Bobby was a kid, there were more dropouts, "special kids" and a whole assortment of bad names/labels that we now understand better as the extreme neurodiversity that humanity expresses. These poor autistic classmates of RFK were ostracized and stigmatized as "bad"

/3
Read 4 tweets
Tyler Black, MD Profile picture
Jan 2
🚨Countering COVID Myths:🚨

❌Myth: "Lockdowns definitely caused massive learning loss"

✅Reality: Using a large set (n=2mil) of Ontario students, we see more improvements then losses, and trend of older students doing better than younger students.

/1Image
As an example of the statistical reason why I can say the above is a myth, zoom in on ALL the grade 3 scores (Grade 3 did the "worst")

Looking at the distribution, we see more deteriorations (52%) than improvements (45% of scores) achievement scores, but its very broad!

/2Image
Even if we take the "worst example" of grade 3 loss (Grade 3 writing), we see more deteriorations (58% of schools) than improvements, but the distribution is wide and 40% of schools showed improvements.

/3Image
Read 11 tweets
Tyler Black, MD Profile picture
Dec 16, 2024
Vaccines and "placebo control"

Placebo-controlled trials compare a vaccine to an inactive substance (placebo). This helps measure how effective the vaccine is. In the case of vaccines, often, the placebo is not "saline", but rather a previous vaccine or vaccine solution.

/1Image
When a safe, effective vaccine already exists, using an inactive placebo means some participants are deliberately left unprotected against disease. This creates unnecessary harm.

/2
Ethical standards require minimizing harm and offering participants the best available care. When a proven vaccine exists, denying it to anyone—regardless of location—is unethical.

/3
Read 9 tweets
Tyler Black, MD Profile picture
Dec 15, 2024
🚨🇨🇦Correcting Disinfo🇨🇦🚨
"COVID vaccination didn't work"

In Canada during the Delta wave, vaccination prevented infection (unvaccinated 6x higher chance of being infected). As well, being unvaccinated led to a 22X chance of being hospitalized and an 18X chance of dying.

/1Image
For confirmed infections, the IFR for unvaccinated was a whopping 2.4%. The IFR for being vaccinated was much lower, both due to preventing infection and reducing the consequences of it.

Delta was a very deadly strain, and unvaccinated people died/suffered the most.

/2 Image
When Omicron hit, it was a strain that evaded vaccinations, leading to enormous numbers of infections, even in vaccinated people.

However, the immunity protection vs hospitalization and death was still enormous, and unvaccinated Canadians were 12X more likely to die.

/3 Image
Read 7 tweets
Tyler Black, MD Profile picture
Nov 30, 2024
Correcting revisionist history:
"COVID is not a problem for young people in the US"

Covid responsible (not "with", underlying cause) for 2% of all deaths <20. That's 1 out of every 50 deaths of all kids who die. #1 in infectious diseases, 5th in disease overall.

/1Image
COVID-19 deaths created 300,000 American orphans, 330,000 if we count "primary caregivers" and 380,000 if we count "secondary caregivers". That's a lot of childhood harm.

2x as common for Black kids
4x as common for Indigenous kids
1.6X as common for Hispanic kids

/2 Image
Our most vulnerable children, with medical illnesses, suffered the most during the pandemic. Children with heart disease, respiratory disease, neurologic diseases, and chromosomal abnormalities suffered more severe symptoms than did children without those conditions.

/3Image
Read 6 tweets
Tyler Black, MD Profile picture
Nov 28, 2024
🏳️‍⚧️FAQ for posterity:

Why do you use pronouns in your bio?
Because it's an easy way to promote inclusivity & to increase awareness of gender expression. It costs me nothing, &because I work with kids who are establishing their identity it shows that I don't make assumptions.

/1
Is being transgender a mental illness?
Being transgender is not a mental illness. It is a natural variation of human phenotype, though some transgender individuals may experience distress, called gender dysphoria, which is addressed through appropriate care.

/2
Can a man be a woman?
Yes. Some individuals identify as a gender different from their assigned sex at birth.

"What is a woman?"
A woman is a female by identity. This can refer to biological sex identity or social gender identity, depending on the context.

/3
Read 14 tweets

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