Thread by @brownecfm

1. Confirmation bias and analysis: a late-night 🧵

As an analyst, the most serious cognitive bias that I have to be aware of is confirmation bias: the tendency to only accept and process new information that supports a previously held belief. I must always be on guard for it.

2. The problem, of course, is that when one lives one's life according to a firmly-held belief, avoiding confirmation bias becomes difficult; vigilance is the order of the day in this regard. To stay vigilant for this great error of analysis, that I could fall victim to at any...

3... time, I utilise two key practices. First, on observation, I always interrogate myself: am I seeing this pattern because it's there, or because it's warped by my own belief? Am I dismissing data because it's shoddy, or am I considering it shoddy because it contradicts my...

4... own beliefs? This is where a solid foundation in philosophy comes in very useful, because I spent five years of my life being told over and over to, 'justify my premises' by lecturers and professors whose whole life had been dedicated to learning how to think very clearly.

5. Second, I have to be very mindful of my own mood. Am I stressed? Am I calm? Am I angry? Am I tired? Being in a highly-emotional state makes confirmation bias much more likely for me. This is why I always seek cold analysis. To paraphrase the great Stoic philosopher, and the..

6. ... Emperor of Rome, Marcus Aurelius, always ask yourself, what exactly are you looking at? I always do. When I peel away my own preconceptions, and my own mood, what am I looking at?

I walk everywhere. I have epilepsy, so I'm legally not allowed to drive. Walking provides..

7... what I refer to as 'ground knowledge'; that is to say, I notice subtle changes in my local area in a way that is impossible through the window of a car or bus. Walking around Belfast today and last weekend, and remembering everything I've said above, I observed two key...

8. ... trends. The first is the obvious effect of the cost of living crisis in the UK. More homeless people, more people wearing worn clothes etc. The second, and I hesitate to type this, because even now I'm interrogating myself in the manner above, but simply this: I have...

9. ...never seen such a high percentage of an observed population appear so unwell. A puffiness and a pallor to so many people I walked past. It quite genuinely disturbed me.

We are making a terrible mistake allowing people to be re-infected over and over again /end