John Burn-Murdoch Profile picture
Aug 2 10 tweets 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
A tragic story in two charts:

1) It never used to be the case, but there is now a big partisan gap for trust in science in the US. Republicans are now essentially the anti-science party, while Dems are stridently pro Image
2) As a result, vaccination rates were markedly lower among Republicans than Democrats during the pandemic, and a new study finds that this led to significantly higher excess death rates among Reps than Dems, amounting to tens of thousands of lives lost https://t.co/SSY7E25TlAjamanetwork.com/journals/jamai…
Image
Here’s another view: there were immediately excess deaths among supporters of both parties when Covid took off, but rates were similar.

But after vaccines became available, a partisan mortality gap opened up and rapidly widened (this is adjusted for age) Image
To be fair, anti-vax attitudes are hardly confined to the US or to Republicans.

AfD voters in Germany were more vax-sceptic than most, as were supporters of populists in France.

But breadth & depth of anti-vax attitudes in those countries and parties was far less than in the US Image
Notably, there was no partisan vax gap in UK.

By May 2021, with all US adults eligible for vax, less than half of Reps had taken up the offer, vs 82% of Dems. In UK, Lab & Con voters alike turned up in droves, with 90% of eligible adults in each party vaxxed by the same date.
It’s tragic that anti-science views have become so deeply embedded in the US political divide.

With pandemics likely a recurring part of our future, anti-vax attitudes will cost lives across the world, but no developed country has a problem as entrenched and as lethal as the US.
My article: on.ft.com/3YhwCYG
@K_Niemietz But it’s interesting to me how not only do we not have the same divide in the UK on things like vaccines and climate change, attitudes to GM crops and nuclear (and to a lesser extent fracking) would be less polarised in the opposite direction here too.
Quick addendum: Kristian asks a good question here.

It’d be fascinating to poll with these examples, and I’m sure Dems number would drop.

imo the polarisation is unhealthy for both sides (just more lethal for one), and Dems line arcs up in significant part for political reasons
But it’s interesting to me how not only do we not have the same divide in the UK on things like vaccines and climate change, attitudes to GM crops and nuclear (and to a lesser extent fracking) would be less polarised in the opposite direction here too.

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More from @jburnmurdoch

Aug 1
🤔 in the richest part of the country, as people continue to grow more prosperous they are using cars less, and using public transport more https://t.co/Cq2Gjri9I8
Image
Though one thing that the anti-car brigade does need to acknowledge is that the public transport infrastructure has to be there for people to switch to it.

Outside of London, for the most part, it is not.

Schemes that aim to reduce car use have to offer genuine alternatives.
It’s easy for Londoners to say "we don’t drive, why does everyone else?", but London has one of the best public transport networks in the world.

Most other cities & towns in the UK have little to no rapid transit, and their bus services have been hammered
Read 12 tweets
Jul 28
NEW: don’t let the ULEZ chatter mislead you.

The British public is much more supportive and united on Net Zero policies than the public in peer countries, with Conservative voters frequently as green as the centre-left elsewhere https://t.co/1hsyLPrlwmon.ft.com/453oWeT
Image
And note that this support is for specific policies that would impact people’s lives — the ban on new petrol and diesel cars, a tax on frequent flyers — not just vague support for net zero as a concept.

Britons are willing to go green even for some short-term inconvenience.
Looking again, it’s striking how America’s reliance on flights for domestic travel makes that policy so unpopular there.

Conservative voters are far more welcoming of such a policy than US Democrats (and Macron voters for that matter). Image
Read 15 tweets
Jul 21
NEW: 85 people in Arizona suffered severe burns from contact with pavements heated up to 180F (82C). 7 of them died. In total, 257 people had underlying cause of death listed as "exposure to excessive natural heat".

This is not a forecast for 50 years time, it’s happening today. Image
Despite that, Phoenix is America’s fastest growing city.

Why does this happen?

In my latest article, I argue that it’s in large part because conversations about global warming focus too much on future threats, and not enough on what’s already happening. Image
I understand the focus on limiting warming to 2ºC, but it’s a small number, refers to a date in the future, and lacks any connection to human experience.

We should put much more emphasis on what’s already happening, and on statistics that people can really grasp. Image
Read 6 tweets
Jul 12
The UK mortgage time bomb numbers are bad enough as they are, but they get really sickening when you think of them as an effective pay cut.

An increase of £500 in monthly payments (coming to 1m households by 2026) is £6,000 per year, which equates to about a *£10,000 pay cut*
For the ~250,000 households whose monthly payments will go up by £1,000 or more, that’s equivalent to a pay cut of more than £20,000.

Just an astonishingly large hit to living standards.
Full Bank of England report with lots more charts here bankofengland.co.uk/financial-stab…
Read 4 tweets
Jul 7
NEW: France’s riots may be subsiding, but their underlying causes persist

In France, immigrants face social exclusion, faring *far* worse than the native-born on almost every socio-economic indicator.

Far less integration than in UK, Germany even the US

https://t.co/7C7vNelFLSon.ft.com/46xX7gx
In Germany and the UK, immigrants and natives are roughly equally likely to be in poverty or in the bottom tenth of earners.

In France, just 11% of natives are in poverty, compared to 28% of immigrants, rising to a stunning 40% among the most recent arrivals.
Here’s a closer look at France & UK on unemployment among immigrants.

Right across England & Wales, native-born and foreign-born people have similar outcomes in the labour market.

In France, jobless rates are consistently higher among immigrants, rising above 20% in some areas.
Read 16 tweets
May 26
NEW: last week a group of US hardline conservatives brought the National Conservatism conference to London. It fell completely flat. Why?

Because Britain and America are completely different societies.

Key chart: UK Cons are *way* more liberal than US Reps on ~every measure. Image
On some issues, British Conservatives are even *more liberal than US Democrats*, such as on whether being Christian matters to being truly British/American, and — related — whether abortion is justifiable.

The British right is a million miles from the American Christian right. Image
But it’s not just religion, and these differences don’t just appear out of nowhere — they reflect the starkly different histories of the two countries.

Let’s consider race/ethnicity, for example...
Read 20 tweets

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