Thread by @TRyanGregory

Let me just be as clear as I can here. 🧵

Eris (EG.5.1*) is absolutely a variant to watch and it will be dominant in many places soon if it isn't already (along with descendants of Arcturus, XBB.1.16*). That's why it got a nickname, after all.

1/

In fact, Eris (EG.5.1*) is the first variant to earn a nickname since Bellatrix (BA.1.22) in May. So, it's obviously an important one. It has a signficant growth advantage within the XBB soup and is rising rapidly in frequency around the world.

2/

However, as was the case with Kraken (XBB.1.5), my best guess is that it will not cause a major wave on its own in most places. It is likely to bring us back up to a high baseline, however. Not a tsunami, but raising the sea level again.



3/

https://twitter.com/TRyanGregory/status/1685388313505505280?t=mMtCaIWtX-na-GkHpSZpcA&s=19

High sea level rather than tsunamis has been the pattern in many places for a year. Don't get caught looking only for overwhelmed hospitals. A sustained high baseline means a lot of area under the curve and a lot of infections and long COVID and variant evolution.

4/

Pointing out that there's nothing "super notable" about Eris and Arcturus referred specifically to the surge in hospitalizations in Japan, which some argue is variant-driven (vs. reduced mitigations, waning immunity, etc.).

5/

In other words, the rapid increase in frequency of Eris (EG.5.1*) isn't necessarily going to mean a huge surge of hospitalizations everywhere. Other factors may be more important in the rise in levels at the end of this summer, notably waning immunity and no mitigations.

6/

A major new variant could change things again, but I don't think Eris or Arcturus or Kraken or any of the current XBBs qualifies as such. I said that back when we named Kraken.



7/

https://twitter.com/TRyanGregory/status/1612093197714612225?t=KHVgHVYmj3NADJ1jFg6IyQ&s=19

This isn't to say that EG.5.1 or other variants are no concern. They certainly are. But at this point, I think we're less at the mercy of each new XBB variant and more dealing with the consequences of dropping basically all mitigations and waning immunity.

8/

That is to say, we don't have to just accept a high baseline most of the year in perpetuity, if we would take steps to stop transmission. Less transmission also means lower odds of another major variant and the return of big waves.

9/

Reminder that good quality masks worn correctly, ventilation, and air filtration are variant-proof.