Jonathan Walsh Profile picture
Aug 6, 2023 67 tweets 48 min read Read on X
Paying for my sins. #DonTheStat replay time.

Shout out to @JamesLowrie24 who had to endure my blow-by-blow analysis yesterday.

Time for a deeper look at what the hell happened.

#GoDons Image
Tough first lesson for Tsatas. Hazard a guess he hasn't set up as a half-forward at too many kick-ins though. Jayden Hunt isn't one you want to give that much space.

This is how teams go end-to-end on us so easily. One player out of position.


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Phillips and Menzie turn their back on the footy. No one leading into the space that is there. We somehow manage to both fill the space for the long option and ignore the space for the short. Ball ends up being forced out of bounds. Image
Montagna uses the term 'possession' when he means 'disposal'. Pet peeve.

Anyway. Here's Darcy Parish turnover number 1.
"Play on" 🤯


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BZT slices through traffic.

The entry itself is fine but you can throw a blanket over our forwards. Tsatas pressures the exit so we win it back but more through luck than design.

There's no setup here.


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Work rate from Parish, when no one else is.

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Turnover number two.

Menzie leads and is probably the best option but I think only Zach or Martin hit that kick.

Wright points but moves late and he's almost 4-on-1.

Turnover #2 for Parish.

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In video form.
Durham gets sucked inside F50 and to be fair, his opponent (Gaff) has too.

I haven't liked the use of our wingers going Inside 50 like this at all this season. Kelly pops out and we have no cover.


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Hobbs gets a real lesson in work rate and defensive awareness from Tim Kelly here.


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Durham has an easy hit up to our best player, our best user (Merrett) in the corridor. Bites off what more than he can chew trying to find Kelly.

Even if this comes off (it doesn't, WC go fwd and score a behind), the hang time gives WC time to setup. Merrett was the option.
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Been going 50 minutes and I'm only half way through Q1. Sheesh. Places to go, people to see. More later.
🟡 HF in Guelfi & Tsatas come right up, the positioning and lack of movement is curious.

🟨 Caldwell pushes off Kelly, dump kick is unnecessary but there's just a real lack of movement from anywhere.


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The initial set up is okay. Menzie shuffling across and Caldwell following up, stops them and they switch back.

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Then it falls over. Guelfi hesitates, last minute decision to close up on Yeo and West Coast are away.


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Kelly doesn't push in at the zone. This is disappointing given it's a behind from a kick in. Hedges his bets and tries to cover 2 and instead covers no one.

If they're good enough to hit the wide 50m kick let them.

Then he doesn't close down the 2nd option.

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We give them an easy switch. Hobbs and Guelfi don't close up and shut down the space. Menzie eventually does when they shift again.

We just refuse to get in their face.

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Low and behold, we still haven't pushed up and they shift again.

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Bryan intercepts the eventual exit, it's a good mark. But you know what happens when you allow the types of exits we just did? When you go fwd, the oppo are organised.

Caldwell is onto it, he makes an immediate lead. But he misses Parish who does the same and kicks to a crowd.

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And we're not. Out it comes.

West Coast go forward for the first goal of the game.

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If you're a doubter and think he does no damage, please just go back and watch this.

Holds his position, gets to the drop of the ball. Wins it under pressure, ducks under the opposition ruckman and gets the ball to Perkins by hand.

So clean. So, so important.

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Speaking of - Darcy Parish turnover #3.

Really nice work by Bryan to tackle, gather and handball to set up our first goal.
I find this strange. Frustrating. Infuriating. Etc, etc.

We give them an easy switch, an easy transition.

Guelfi wins the ball over the back of the market contest deep in D50. Great that he's worked back. Why aren't we pushing up and closing them down?


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Tsatas is back there too.

It leads to the field kick of the day from Zach Merrett. Menzie took off, shouldn't have. But there's absolutely no one further down the ground and it's wasted.
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And it leads to Darcy Parish turnover #4.
Hobbs doesn't spot Menzie. Perkins good enough to get the ball to ground against two and Menzie front and square. He hits the post.

Didn't make the most of our chance here, but nice to see three young guys combining.

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For mine, Nick Hind has been getting increasingly better at using his pace defensively, rather than just offensively.

He is protecting the corridor, and then once they switch he uses his speed to close down and intercept.

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Then has the presence to call Elijah Tsatas back at him, to get the kid into the game. Shame this didn't end in a mark to Guelfi.


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The ball rebounds straight back out. We're in no way set up. It's like we didn't even consider we might need to defend an exit.

Hewett gets over the back of Laverde and it's a West Coast goal.

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Geez these two have a beautiful connection. Pick up, under pressure, one touch, puts it in Merrett's path. Knows exactly where he is.

Wright kicks a behind. That's it for Q1.


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Whoops - wrong video here. This is Parish turnover #3.
A bit under the weather, taken the day off. What better way to make myself feel better than cracking into the rest of the replay. 🤪

Q2. Here we go. It starts with some really good body work by Perk to keep his opponent away and give Parish access to the ball drop. Wright misses


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Perkins has been pushing fwd post CB, aka 'The Stringer role' the past 2 weeks. Here the transition to the kick-in zone has broken down to allow and easy first kick. We do push up though, force them wide and the ball doesn't get past the wing. That was much better than Q1.


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Fwd Stoppage. Redman pushes up, Durham the offensive winger pushes up. Martin as a HF takes Hunt to Kelly, the aim to give Parish a run at the ball.

Hunt wins it, Caldwell pressures the exit and Hind marks. 3 defenders in screen & Kelly the defensive wing. Better.


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And some better fwd craft. Perkins turns his opponent.
Wright holds deep. We keep the space right of screen.

Langford leads high, Perkins in behind. Hind's kick is a beauty. Hind is our 5th most effective kick I50 this season (% of entries resulting in a score).


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Nothing comes of this, Durham gives to Merrett who shanks the kick. But another example of why I think Martin can go inside and have an impact. He's clean and composed, makes good decisions under pressure.


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1 on 4. Chase, chase, chase, chase, smother. Out of bounds.


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This is something I'd like to see Hobbs get better at, will take him to the next level as a contested midfielder. He bends at the hips and not the knees.

It means his head is down, and he goes to ground too easily. Once he's out of the contest the Eagles effectively have a +1.


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Hunt on Guelfi, Part 1.


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Hunt on Guelfi, Part 2. Like Hobbs before, just got to keep your feet.

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Parish Turnover #4. A truly terrible kick.

NB: I unfairly adjusted #3 earlier as a turnover when it wasn't. So the original 4 becomes 3. And this is the 4th turnover given in the Champion Data stats.
After 3 or 4 truely horrible kicks in a row, we string two really good ones together. Parish to Kelly. Then Martin for Langford. The finish by Langford is pretty damn good too.


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The Merrett to Parish connection ain't bad either.

The Hind delivery was spot on too.


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Hobbs' technique again here means he goes to ground under some pressure and is done for holding the ball.

Staying on your feet is what sets the best apart. He'll get there, but for now, it's a problem.

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Better. Close the ground, make it small.

They can go all the way back to Yeo if they like, but otherwise it's down the line and we get a throw-in.

I suspect we're going to see something very different in Q3 & Q4. But this is much closer to what it should look like.

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DP3. It's not just the goal, it's the work he does to get there.


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He then follows up with Turnover #5 for the day.

I'm not clever enough to capture the audio with the video, but this is a free kick to Redman.
Follows up with Turnover #6.

Ball ends up with Merrett, to Laverde, to Wright who plays on to pass to Menzie and the siren goes to end Q2.
Q3 - there aren't too many highlights after this I don't think.

It starts with a bullet handball through traffic from Parish to Perkins and the penetration on the kick is great. I want more Perkins kicking In50.

He's 4th this season at Essendon, for % of IN50 ending in a score.


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Ok, perhaps one more. Great follow up work by Hind, the give and go with Durham, the Durham block and the delivery by Hind to Langford.

Langford misses. It's hard to believe we allow West Coast back into this game from here.


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#7. Yuck.
The problem with shallow/central entries.
Wright might have been able to go to Caldwell, but he doesn't.

McGrath does get a cruel bounce from the quick Kelly exit kick. We're pressed up reasonably well but it gets over the back and we're exposed.. Cripps gets a free, and goals.


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Perkins kick I50 is a beauty, Wright should have marked. Hobbs is ran down.

Turning the ball over here means you have to defend the whole width of the ground & it's a big ask.

We don't work back hard enough, but the starting position makes it easier for WCE to transition.


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DP3 Turnover #8
And #9 🤮

The handball from Langford isn't great either.
And follows up with #10. Good defensive cover by Kelly.
This is a good pick up from a big man. Had slightly more time than he realised I think. Q3 finishes with a Cox behind.


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Q4. Hang in there, it's nearly over.

Whether you think this is a free kick or not (I don't), you don't stop. 4 of our forwards completely give up and a 5th is jogging.

The transition is an easy one. West Coast out-number us ahead of the footy, with space for days.


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They could have played paper-scissors-rock to determine who got to kick the goal. This was really poor, and it's not ability. It's concentration and work rate.


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One of Davey or Menzie is out of position here, I suspect Davey. Gives McGovern a target.

Redman has then given Petruccelle too much leg rope and WC go coast-to-coast. Get a ball-up in their forward line.

Little things dropping off, making it easy for the opposition.


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WC gets a repeat ball up. Teams tend to take Redman away from stoppages in our D50, I don't know why more don't do this. It's been a long standing problem & why I refute any suggestion he'd make a mid/winger. He ball watches and loses Petruccelle who sets up the Cripps goal.


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I like Tsatas taking the responsiblity here and he puts the kick to Menzie's favoured side. Menzie has a really good ability to get his opponent under the footy.

It's a good pick up and handball at speed. Langford's shimmy is class. Phillips' finishing is not.


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The kick-in goes down the middle. Wright doesn't kill it, Parish doesn't stick the tackle, West Coast gets a two-on-one ahead of the ball.

A West Coast goal. The Phillips miss was bad, but we just completely switched off.


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Parish Turnover #11.
On the oppositions most dangerous mid. Works from one side of the stoppage to the other. Pushes Kelly out of the way, wins the ball, ducks under a tackle and delivers to Laverde. Parish at his best.

Laverde, Menzie, Langford. Goal.


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Turnover #12 for Parish. Champion Data had in down for 11. So I've been unfair to him somewhere along the line.

Out of jail. Just. The. End.

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More from @JonathanJWalsh

Mar 16
A rainy Melbourne Sunday seems like the perfect opportunity to #DonTheReplay.

So here goes.

#DonTheStat | #GoDons Image
Q1. Redman in the middle, raises some eyebrows. I think it's just to add size and defensive structure, with Setterfield unavailable, against a big Hawks midfield.

He's defensive cover here and I'm not sure we see him play as a genuine mid, I think he pops out, Durham goes to Day Image
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Shiel's first involvement as a HB is off the back of the first stoppage of the game and a nice kick to Merrett.

Zach probably has Kako on, who doesn't get used and puts his head down to get to the next contest.

Caddy leads into Langford's lane and takes his opponent with him. Image
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Read 72 tweets
Aug 7, 2024
2023: 11 Wins
2024: 11.5 Wins

2023: 50.4 Inside 50s, Ranked 15th
2024: 55.9 Inside 50s, Ranked 4th

2023: 55.8 Inside 50s Against, Ranked 15th
2024: 49.8 Inside 50s Against, Ranked 6th

🧵

#DonTheStat | #GoDons
2023: -5.4 Inside 50 Differential, Ranked 16th
2024: +6.1 Inside 50 Differential, Ranked 4th

2023: 66.8 Intercepts, Ranked 13th
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2023: -1.2 Intercept Differential, Ranked 15th
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2023: +0.2 Centre Clearance Differential, Ranked 11th
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2023: -1.2 Stoppage Clearance Differential, Ranked 13th
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Read 8 tweets
May 6, 2024
I preface all of what I'm about to say with an acknowledgement that we have a long way to go and I'm looking at small datasets.

After our loss to Port, I think most Dons fans wondered whether it was a blip or a return to normal.

🧵

#DonTheStat | #GoDons
Early indicators are that it was a timely lesson on some areas that needed a tidy up and what happens when you don't give maximum effort.

I've had a look at what has changed pre and post the Port loss. The other caveat here is we played Sydney in the first 3 rounds, who sit...
...on top of the ladder. In the four games since, we haven't played a team that currently sits in the Top 8.

I wondered going into 2024 - would we improve as much as the teams around us, to put ourselves into contention to play finals? We aren't world beaters...
Read 19 tweets
Mar 17, 2024
Round 1 ✅

Time for a dive into the replay.

🧵

#DonTheStat | #GoDons Image
A couple of small things at the first CB.

Worpel is Merrett conscious, that works for us. Zach is happy to sit outside the first layer of the contest, Worpel and Newcombe are the Hawks two best ball winners, Setterfield keeps Newcombe from the drop of the ball. Durham... Image
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He wins the 1st Centre Clearance of 2024, from his first career Centre Bounce Attendance.

Handballs to Gresham, who should have lowered his eyes, but at least the entry was deep.

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Read 58 tweets
Nov 22, 2023
With Vigo Visentini joining the Essendon Rookie List, Essendon has a full list of 38 Primary Listed players and 4 Rookie Listed players.

We have 2 Category B spots if we go that way, but let's look at our List depth as it stands.

#DonTheStat | #GoDons Image
This isn't an exercise in quality or AFL readiness.
Green equals primary position/role.
Yellow equals secondary/tertiary position/role.
Age in brackets is as at Jan 1, 2024.

Rule of thumb is there has to be some level of exposed form in a role at Training, AFL, VFL, U18 level.
Start with the backline. Players are in age order, not my ranking.

McKay bolsters key defence, I've relegated Laverde to a medium defender, along with Baldwin, but both of them can step up to key post if required. Image
Read 10 tweets
Oct 16, 2023
Moneyball gets thrown around a lot in AFL circles these days. Rarely is it properly understood, with the focus on ‘money’ rather than ‘ball’.

I first read Michael Lewis’ book when it was thrown on my desk whilst I was working at Essendon. Image
At the heart of Bill James’ theory (a stats and data nerd that probably got picked last at school), was that the game was obsessed with outdated measurements.

His theory was that if you got players on base more often, you’d score more…
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For the A’s they couldn’t compete with the likes of the Yankees when it did come to money. That matters less in AFL. We all have the same salary cap.

So much focus is on Points For & Points Against in AFL. Wins and Losses.
Read 18 tweets

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