Thread by @afcjxmes

Why patience was the most important factor as to why Arsenal beat Man City at penalties in the Community Shield.

A brief thread:

Firstly, I just want to point out that penalties are not an exact science. A player can take a good penalty which is saved, or can take a bad penalty and scuff the ball in. As such, here we are trying to improve the chances of a good penalty being taken, but not always scored.

Similarly from the psychological side it’s not the only factor at play to decide if the penalty goes in. A player might have a perfect preparation but mess up a shot and vice versa again. Some players naturally have poor routines but take good penalties, as we’ll go on to see.

Anyway the factor I wanted to hone in on today (which is a large part of my dissertation) is a player’s whistle response time to take the penalty. A short whistle response time indicates avoidance behaviour which research shows increases the chances of missing.

Let’s look at the stats:

When I mentioned it yesterday I didn’t intend to sound condescending but the behaviour shown by both teams was like night and day here.

Arsenal averaged 7.05 seconds waited per penalty compared to City’s 1.19.

And now the footage:

Once again just watching these 2 players it’s glaringly obvious that De Bruyne doesn’t allow himself time to compose and rushes the kick, compared to Ødegaard who takes several deep breaths to settle the nerves.

As I say, this doesn’t mean that every player who ‘rushes’ the penalty will miss and those who wait will score. It simply allows players to compose, reducing the risk of them ‘choking’ under pressure.

Let’s look at another example from the same player:

Here is 1 of only 2 penalties that Ivan Toney (one of the best takers in the world) has ever missed in his career. Look at the whistle response time.

Now compare this to a more recent penalty he took and watch the difference:



Night and day.

I’ve not really provided an explanation into why rushing makes you worse at penalties but the theory is there. I’ll save that for my dissertation which maybe one day I’ll post on here.

The videos will get taken down soon so enjoy this while you can. Drop a follow if you enjoyed.

Oh and here’s a professor saying the same thing if you don’t think I’m credible.

https://twitter.com/geirjordet/status/1688245341160673281