Samo Burja Profile picture
Aug 10 11 tweets 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Few economists bite the bullet that if immigration is good for the countries gaining people, emigration is bad for the countries losing people. Image
There is a war of rich on poor: Depriving developing countries of the human capital they need to develop while simultaneously depriving them of cheap energy in name of environmentalism.
Interesting thread on this in the case of Eastern Europe:

It's been over 30 years since the transition from Communism!

Every relative gain Eastern Europe makes compared to the West is offset by losses due to depopulation.
People who take bad institutions as fixed and immutable are part of the problem.

It is outlier individuals that change less succesful countries into more succesful countries over time through reforming dysfunctional institutions and founding functional ones.
Take those outliers away and the institutions as well as the countries remain broken.
Of course emigration is better for the people that leave. But even with the most extreme cases case 60-70% of the people stay. All of those people are worse off.
The idea that emigration will discipline a country to have better government or institutions is also a common assumption with no evidence.

If it doesn't pressure California to work better within the US why would it make Ukraine or Romania better?
It is of course fair to say personal rights are more important than economic development. But then let's be intellectually honest and make that argument.
Pretending this situation isn't damaging for underdeveloped economies and the people that live there does not safeguard anyone's rights.
I'm also dismayed how many people are quick to slander prosperus and free places like Poland, Czechia, or Estonia as Communist gulags or shitholes.

Eastern Europeans need to understand that Westerners will never respect us no matter what we do.

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More from @SamoBurja

Jul 12
"The US is a manufacturing superpower" is the new DC comintern official party line.

Industry after industry, after nearly two hundred cases studies, we at @bismarckanlys find no evidence of this.
What we find is relative decline and absolute stagnation. Technological progress is happening but it isn't outpacing deindustrialization.
When it comes to the numbers on manufacturing they're ludicrously adulterated, including things like mining and construction.

If we define mining as industry, then Australia and Russia are industrial powerhouses.
Read 5 tweets
Jul 12
Brazil has all the natural fundamentals to be a world power. Despite 200 years of high hopes, it still isn’t one.

Brazil is a case study in how dysfunctional political institutions squander great potential.

Read the new @bismarckanlys Brief here:

1/n https://t.co/szEAVG40jwbrief.bismarckanalysis.com/p/the-roots-of…
Image
Brazil might be the world’s largest contiguous breadbasket. The country is vast, warm, and fertile, with many rivers, and Brazil is unsurprisingly one of the biggest exporters of cash crops.

Brazil’s 200 million people get 64% of electricity from hydropower!

2/n Image
Brazil’s problem is that it is a highly decentralized country where elites consistently prioritize costly political battles over development of the economy and institutions.

Brazil has a long history of rebellions, military coups, and, today, politics via the justice system

3/n Image
Read 5 tweets
Apr 5
Whether China becomes a global military superpower will depend on the functionality of its state-owned defense industry.

It is underperforming in quality and quantity compared to China’s civilian economy.

Read the new @bismarckanlys Brief here:
brief.bismarckanalysis.com/p/chinas-laggi…

1/n
Unlike Western defense co.’s, China’s state-owned enterprises get most of their revenue from civilian business!

This is a legacy of Deng, who corporatized arms factories and directed them to make consumer goods, in hopes expertise and technology would build up faster.

2/n
Today, China still lags behind the US and Russia in military technological sophistication.

China relies on Russia & Europe for designs & expertise, especially for aircraft and naval engines. The SOEs make incremental progress and can scale production, but no breakthroughs.

3/n
Read 5 tweets
Mar 29
Egypt is awarding tens of billions of dollars in contracts for weapons, infrastructure, and a new capital city in the desert.

The spending spree is an insecure government’s attempt to maintain legitimacy.

Read the new @bismarckanlys Brief here: brief.bismarckanalysis.com/p/egypt-tries-…

1/n
Egypt has a lackluster economy but plays an outsized role in global trade because it hosts and runs the Suez Canal.

Over $1 trillion passes through Suez each year, about 12% of global trade. The canal is especially key to trade between Europe and Asia.

2/n
Because of Suez, players in Europe, Asia, and Russia have an interest in keeping Egypt stable.

But they don’t necessarily have an interest in el-Sisi, Egypt’s military strongman since 2013. Another military strongman could always depose the current one.

3/n
Read 5 tweets
Mar 29
The tech layoffs show a pessimism about the future.

If there is a formidable startup lurking behind every corner big tech hired to keep talent away from competitors.

If actually this is now a mature sector, well why not layoff 10-30% of your workforce?
I hear funny conspiracy theories by my programmer friends that the layoffs are due to the big companies already automating code away.

First, big orgs don't move that fast. Second, partial automation increases demand for skilled labor.

IF there were more things code could do.
People have already forgot the justification for ridiculously high tech salaries, which were seen as ridiculous already in 2012 (muh competition)
Read 4 tweets
Mar 22
TikTok has been downloaded >3 billion times and has 150 million users in the U.S.

It is the first Chinese tech company to defeat U.S. tech companies on their home turf. The U.S. government wants to ban it.

Read the new @bismarckanlys Brief here: brief.bismarckanalysis.com/p/tiktoks-stru…

1/n
It is hard to understate the scale of TikTok’s success, especially among young people.

Reportedly 67% of U.S. teenagers use TikTok regularly, more than any other social media app or site except YouTube.

Only 32% use Facebook regularly.

2/n
Zhang Yiming is the founder of ByteDance, TikTok’s Chinese parent.

His ambition is to build a truly global tech company that captures both U.S. and Chinese users simultaneously.

He launched TikTok only after succeeding at building fast-growing online platforms in China.

3/n
Read 5 tweets

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