Thread by @BigManBakar

The Preview: GW1 – A thread

Greetings everyone. Welcome to my latest preview thread where I cover the most common FPL dilemmas before GW1:

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😬 Which forward other than Haaland?
🤔 Which GK/defenders?
😢 Salah or no Salah?
🍿 Which 5 midfielders? https://t.co/c4Nd8O0jNNfantasyfootballhub.co.uk/bigmanbakars-f…

Q) Salah or no Salah?

Salah or no Salah at £12.5m is the big debate before GW1, especially when most FPL managers are likely to captain him in just 1 of the opening 6 GWs.

Double Arsenal/United mids will be tough to get to for those who go Salah + Haaland

The case for Salah

Salah has been in superb form in pre-season which has continuously led me searching for a Salah-inclusive team that avoids excessively compromising positions.

So far, Salah has scored twice and assisted seven times across just five pre-season games. Liverpool have scored three or more goals in each of these five fixtures.

Their playing style appears remarkably expansive, to the extent that the matches they engage in resemble basketball games. The absence of a traditional #6 might hold significance as Klopp seems inclined to outscore opponents, compensating for his team's defensive vulnerabilities.

Since Liverpool’s changed formation last season, no player has recorded more points than Mohamed Salah in the time period.

Over this significant span of ten matches, he ranked first for shots inside the penalty area and second for xG and xGi in the entire league.

Contrary to popular opinion, he was playing more centrally as his own stats improved significantly – his minutes per xG, shots, final-third touches and penalty area touches all increased.

Comparing some of his key metrics before and after the formation change:

Salah before change of formation v Salah after change of formation

Big chances per 90: 0.82 v 1.20
Shots in the box per 90: 2.49 v 3.68
xG per 90: 0.49 v 0.69
xGi per 90: 0.8 v 1.0

Comparing these numbers across previous seasons, it becomes evident that Salah's performance reached an optimal level following the formation alteration:

Salah after change of formation v 21/22 v 20/21 v 19/20 v 18/19

Big chances per 90: 1.20 v 1.33 v 0.84 v 0.88 v 0.91 Shots in the box per 90: 3.68 v 3.46 v 2.46 v 3.30 v 2.42
xG per 90: 0.69 v 0.85 v 0.65 v 0.63 v 0.63
xGi per 90: 1.0 v 1.3 v 0.9 v 1.0 v 1.0

And it doesn't end here. The fact that he is owned by less than 25% of FPL managers at the time of writing means that there could be huge gains to be made if he performs according to expectations in Gameweek 2.

The case against Salah

Opting for a draft without Salah significantly simplifies matters as it means that you have the cash to get most of the best picks in the game.

With Erling Haaland in the picture, captaincy becomes less of a factor. Even though the Newcastle fixture does not seem great on paper in Gameweek 2, it's worth noting that Haaland is playing at home - where he is a completely different animal.

No other player registered a higher expected goals (xG) or expected goal involvement (xGi) when playing at home last season. Consequently, it came as no surprise that Haaland led the FPL points table when playing at home, boasting an average of 9.7 FPL points per start.

As you continuously fine-tune between various FPL drafts, you begin to sense that opting for both Haaland and Salah within a single team does involve some compromises, leading to a heightened reliance on Salah's performance.

For what it’s worth, Salah failed to score home or away against Chelsea, Bournemouth and Newcastle last season, Liverpool’s first three opponents of 2023/24.

There exists a real possibility that some of the midfielders priced between £8-9 million, whom you let go due to Salah, could potentially outperform him in the initial Gameweeks, especially considering the favorable fixtures for Arsenal and Manchester United.

Given the price tag, picking Salah becomes tough to justify with captaincy out of the equation in five of the opening six Gameweeks. This also makes it likely that FPL managers who own Salah in Gameweek 1 might transfer him out after Gameweek 2 to spread money around their squad.

Further, for most managers, João Pedro is the key to “unlocking” a Salah draft. If he backfires, there is no where else to go at £5.5m.

For a manager who prefers a cautious approach to risks, an argument against selecting Salah is that his ownership among the template teams will likely be low. Therefore, even if he excels in Gameweek 2, the impact might not be as magnified.

Q) Best Arsenal mid after Saka?

Martinelli was top among Arsenal midfielders for big chances last season and most importantly, his numbers shot up in the absence of Gabriel Jesus.

In his absence, Martinelli scored 8 goals in 14 games, registering a shot in the box every 36 mins and a big chance every 154 mins.

With Jesus in the team, Martinelli scored just 7 times in 22 games, recording a shot in the box every 53 mins and a big chance every 190 mins.

Had Jesus been fit, tripling up would have been easier with the forward slots not as tempting. There’s more value in the £6.5m midfield slots than the forward ones.

Q) Rashford or Bruno?

Rashford v Bruno

This calendar year

(Stats per 90)

Big chances: 1.3 v 0.3
Non pen xG: 0.7 v 0.2
Non pen xGi: 0.65 v 0.56

This is a very popular dilemma in the community.

Q) Is it overkill to double up on the Man Utd attack?

Bruno Fernandes at £8.5m is a shock. Top for chances created & big chances created last season.

Completely nailed & on penalties for Man Utd.

Crazy!

Q) Is it overkill to double up on the Man Utd attack?

Bruno Fernandes at £8.5m is a shock. Top for chances created & big chances created last season.

Completely nailed & on penalties for Man Utd.

Crazy!

I don’t mind doubling up on the Man United attack. I have no hesitation doubling up on the Man United attack given what they bring to the table.

They scored 58 goals last season from a total xG of 72.87 so safe to say there was quite a bit of underperformance

Q) Why is Watkins the standout Jesus/Nkunku replacement?

xG since Emery took over

(Forwards)

Haaland 19.9
Watkins 14.4
Kane 14.3
Wilson 12.7
Toney 12.1
Darwin 10.53

Watkins is actually a much more solid asset than what most people give him credit for.

Since Emery took over last season, only Haaland and Kane among forwards fared better for FPL points as well as underlying metrics such as shots in the box, xG and xGi.

He has also scored four goals in pre-season so comes into this season in a rich vein of form.

Furthermore, I also like the fact that Watkins provides the flexibility to downgrade to other forwards if needed, which makes him a valuable asset.

Q) Who are the alternatives to Watkins?

I feel as if Jackson could end up being a legit alternative to Watkins.

12 goals, 4 assists in 16 starts for Villareal last season and 5 attacking returns in pre-season.

Really good conversion rate/finisher. Good stats for shots in the box per 90 and chances created per 90 too!

Chelsea underperformed their xG by around 11 goals last season with no other team more big chances. The potential is there if they can take their chances.

João Pedro is the ace in the pack which enables a Salah draft. He is expected to start as he has impressed in the pre-season friendlies.

Crucially, he was given 90 minutes in the latest friendly that Brighton played and scored a penalty with Pascal Gross on the field which suggests that he might keep the penalties in the near future as well.

At £5.5m, João Pedro allows an extremely cheap route into the Brighton attack - no team registered a better non penalty xG than them since Roberto De Zerbi took over last season.

"In attack we have got some great players so it is difficult to decide the starting 11"

De Zerbi after the pre-season friendlies.

Pedro should be safe to start the season with but could become a risk in no time

Q) Is it ok to have a boring, template team?

I don’t think there is anything wrong in picking a safe, template team. You can pick and choose your moments to pick differentials later on, with more data to base your decisions on.

The last thing you want is to be chasing the crowd so early on if your differentials backfire!

Q) Why is 3-5-2 better than 3-4-3 this season?

It’s very difficult to opt for a 3-4-3 formation to begin with this season.

The injuries to Jesus/Nkunku means that the forwards pool is far too limited.

Haaland and 1 more spot should be more than enough to play between the different forwards available!

3-5-2 is definitely the template formation before GW1. So many tempting midfielders to pick from while most of the forwards seem underwhelming.

Options will emerge but it's difficult to see a £6-7m forward replicate the value that Mitoma/Mbeumo are likely to offer early on!

Q) How were Mbeumo's numbers in Toney's absence?

I really like Mbeumo's reclassification as a midfielder this season. In fact, he would have registered 14 more points than his actual tally had he been classified as a midfielder last season.

In the latter part of the previous season, Mbeumo showcased remarkable underlying numbers, serving as Brentford's main focal point in the absence of Ivan Toney.

To be precise, in the four games that Toney missed, Mbeumo was top among Brentford players for big chances, shots in the box, xG and xGi.

Mbeumo is also likely to be on penalties and has a share of the set pieces as well which gives him plenty of routes to points.

Q) Is Eze better than Mitoma/Mbeumo?

I still prefer Mbeumo/Mitoma to Eze as they had a much superior xGi per 90 compared to Eze, even after his purple patch at the end of the season.

Q) Is it wise to have 8 playable attackers at the start of the season?

I don’t like the idea of spending on 8 playable attackers at the start.

With no European commitments, rotation at the start is generally minimal. Better to spend the money on the starting 11!

Q) Trent or no Trent? How do his stats compare?

20% ownership for Trent going into a season is the lowest I remember it being.

There are very few defenders who can get 20+ points in a game. Trent is one of them.

At the moment, he is not is my team. Liverpool’s playing style appears remarkably expansive, to the extent that the matches they engage in resemble basketball games.

The absence of a traditional defensive midfielder (#6) might hold significance, as Klopp seems inclined to outscore opponents, compensating for his team's defensive vulnerabilities.

This makes it tough to justify the premium paid.

One valid argument for not picking Trent is that there are so many explosive £5-5.5m defenders in the game. (Shaw, Estupinan, James, Chilwell)

Opting for these allows you to spend more in midfield as well, giving you a greater chance of nailing the £8-9m mids.

Tough decision!

Having said all of this, I would like to put some of his insanely eye-watching stats since the formation change into context though:

*Only 5 players in the game scored more FPL points than Trent, who was averaging over 6 FPL points per game

*Only Fernandes created more big chances in this period

*Trent was easily the best defender for xGi and xA, creating nearly double the number of big chances as everyone

*Estupinan was the second highest scoring defender in this period and he scored 18 points fewer than him

*Trent’s own xA per 90 rose 0.37 from to 0.43

*Trent’s shots per game rose from 1.1 to 1.5 as well

Q) Is Estupinan really essential?

In the last 10 games of the season, Estupinan was:

(Defenders)

*1st for penalty area touches & shots in the box
*2nd for xG/xGi
*3rd for key passes

Only Trent got more attacking returns in this period.

Could be risky not owning him at 51.4% ownership before LUT, wol, WHU

Brighton kept 9 out of 12 ten clean sheets at home last season – 4 of their opening 6 fixtures are at home.

He rotates really well with Colwill:

LUT wol LUT NFO bur BOU ful bur

And with Botman:

LUT wol LUT NEW BRE shu BUR whu CRY

With Koulibaly gone and the likes of Badiashile and Fofana injured, Colwill got plenty of game time in pre season and I expect that to be the case in the PL as well.

Q) What about Gabriel?

Highest xG conceded from set plays last season

1) Leicester
2) Forest
3) Palace
4) Bournemouth
5) Everton
6) Fulham
7) Man United

Arsenal play 6 of these in the opening 7 GWs...

Gabriel goal incoming.

Q) Chilwell/James overhyped?

Barring the opening fixture against Liverpool, Chelsea have a great start to the season.

There is no Europe to deal with either along with the fact that Pochettino is an experienced manager.

His Spurs team were in the top three for fewest goals conceded in each of the four seasons he was in charge for.

Crucially, he's had a full pre-season to get his troops up to speed.

In 2017/18, Ben Davies and Kieran Trippier recorded seven assists a piece and were ranked in the top two for chance creation among defenders, despite fewer starts than the rest.

I'm expecting big things from Chilwell too, considering how attacking he has been in pre-season. Most of Chelsea's attack is coming down their left with Chilwell playing like an advanced left forward:

"The manager is telling me to get as forward as possible which is my game"

He's also taking a share of the set pieces as well.

Reece James is an option as well, especially with the outside chance that he might be taking penalties with Nkunku injured. Last season, only Trent among defenders had a better minutes per chances created average than James.

Q) Onana or Shaw?

Onana coming in at £5.0m means you have a nailed starter in the United defence at a cut price, with Luke Shaw priced £0.5 more expensive.

His distribution is undoubtedly an upgrade on David de Gea and combined with a strong save percentage record, the new Red Devils’ number one has the potential to be a bit of a bonus magnet.

United kept the most clean sheets of any team last season – and if they are anywhere close to matching this again in 2023/24, Onana will be well worth the extra investment on the £4.5m goalkeepers.

Shaw becomes difficult to justify when you have Onana £0.5m cheaper.

Q) Who to pair Turner with?

For £9m, you can get this with Onana:
WOL SHU NFO ars BUR bur CRY BRE shu

For £8.5m, you can get this with Pickford:
FUL SHU WOL shu BUR bre LUT BOU LUT

For £8.5m, you can get this with Steele:
LUT SHU WHU NEW BUR BOU BRE cry LUT

For £8.5m, you can get this with Johnstone:

shu SHU bre WOL BUR FUL BRE NFO

Q) Is it ok to start with 2 £4m defenders?

I don’t think starting with two £4.0m defenders is necessarily a bad thing this season, given the number of options we have available.

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Content on attack:



Content on defence:

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https://twitter.com/BigManBakar/status/1689553229204561920

https://twitter.com/BigManBakar/status/1689667367683641344

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