Caroline Orr Bueno, Ph.D Profile picture
Aug 12, 2023 9 tweets 5 min read Read on X
So, the “fund Hawaii, not Ukraine” talking point has a lot of characteristics of a coordinated campaign that turned “organic” after seeding the narrative. These are a few examples. Image
These are the very first two tweets that used the phrase “Hawaii not Ukraine.” They were posted at 4:51 and 4:54 on 8/9, in response to a @DOTHawaii tweet.
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@DOTHawaii Then this quote-tweet was posted an hour later, at 5:57 pm. Look at the engagement this tweet got compared to the one sent an hour earlier.
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@DOTHawaii Then this tweet — the 4th tweet to use that specific phrase (“Hawaii, not Ukraine”) — was posted an hour later, at 6:52 pm. This was a breakthrough tweet that ranked at the top of the search results even days later.
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@DOTHawaii After that ^ tweet was posted, the talking point started being picked up and tweeted more frequently. These two tweets, again using the same phrase (“Hawaii not Ukraine”) were sent just minutes after that last tweet, and from there it continued to pick up over the next two days.
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This is a common format for influence/disinfo campaigns, where a talking point gets seeded by a few key accounts (amplifiers), then picked up by their networks. A big indicator of coordination here is the timing — the first 4 tweets were each sent almost exactly an hour apart.
The first account that tweeted the phrase “Hawaii not Ukraine” is interesting. It’s a small account and was created in July.

The account’s first tweet on 7/19 was a 34 second Space that was nothing but background music. The account has tweeted/RTd 136 times since then.
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The account’s retweets are interesting, too. They’ve RT’d literally every single major right-wing influencer on Twitter, in what is almost certainly a purposeful/strategic process. To me, this suggests that the account is making contact for the purpose of signaling the network.

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I’ll write this up with more info, but this was an interesting case study to break down in real time.

It’s also a great reminder/warning that crises & natural disasters are major attack surfaces (for malign state & non-state actors, extremists, etc) and we’re unprepared for it.

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More from @RVAwonk

Jul 25
Remember the Facebook Files from 2021 — internal research that was leaked, revealing that FB’s algorithm was designed to amplify divisive & emotionally charged content in order to maximize engagement? Well, those files also revealed the underpinnings of modern disinformation.
Basically, much like FB’s algorithm, disinformation isn’t designed to inform or educate. It persuades through emotional appeals and tapping into the unconscious, not by making logical arguments or providing helpful facts. This is rooted in scientific research.
Conspiracy theories like Pizzagate, the Plandemic movie, and Trump‘s claims about election fraud are designed to tap into aspects of people’s identities and morals in a way that provokes an emotional response outside of conscious awareness. The point is to make people NOT think.
Read 8 tweets
Apr 2
Claiming that vaccination is an issue of “personal choice” — as HHS Secretary Kennedy often does — disregards the fact that choosing not to get vaccinated strips *other* people of their personal *choice* to stay healthy or live a normal life.

My latest: open.substack.com/pub/weaponized…Image
My then-9-month-old infant didn’t choose to be exposed to a vaccine preventable disease, nor did she have the choice to be vaccinated against it (because she was too young). Someone else made a choice not to get vaccinated, yet she was forced to pay for their costly decision.
When you tell people that vaccination is an individual choice, they don’t think about how their decision will impact the most vulnerable members of our society – the ones who can’t speak up and say how unfair it is that they have to suffer for someone else’s “individual choice“. Image
Read 4 tweets
Jan 11
There are a lot of reports about fire hydrants around the LA area lacking pressure and/or not having any water when firefighters went to use them, and I haven’t seen anyone raise the question of whether this could be the result of a deliberate attack on US infrastructure?
Unsurprisingly, most people are blaming the political administration in CA and LA for failing to properly maintain the fire hydrants, which could be true. But it’s also the exact the narrative I would push if I wanted to deflect attention from a deliberate attack.
We already know that China is targeting our critical infrastructure, “including naval ports, internet service providers and utilities,” so it’s not really a stretch to suggest that things like fire hydrants could be part of such an attack.
reuters.com/world/us/us-di…
Read 5 tweets
Nov 30, 2024
I love it when I’m running, & some angry old man beeps his horn & yells at me to look up b/c they think I don’t see their car, presumably b/c they didn’t see me until the last minute. Meanwhile I saw them coming 1/4 mile away & already memorized their make, model, & plate #.
I’m capable of looking at my phone while running & paying attention to the road at the same time, it’s one of the skills that women have to learn to keep ourselves alive. We are never not paying attention to our surroundings b/c we know that angry men like you kill women like me.
I also love how so many men get angry at *me* when they scare the shit out of themselves by almost hitting me with their car because they didn’t notice me until the last second. It’s the pedestrian safety parallel to “ well, what’d you expect? you were wearing a short skirt.”
Read 6 tweets
Nov 18, 2024
Trump and Musk’s inevitable breakup is going to be the messiest divorce that any of us has ever seen, and it’s probably going to happen a lot sooner than you think.

newrepublic.com/post/188501/el…Image
One of the unique & defining features of malignant narcissism is the use of self-destructive behaviors as a control mechanism. When a malignant narcissist fears they are losing control, they will often sabotage their own relationships, career, etc, just to maintain control.
And both of these men, in very public ways, have demonstrated characteristics of malignant narcissism.

For example:
Read 6 tweets
Nov 6, 2024
Something that you have to understand about Russian interference is that it’s highly unlikely that they would actually try to manipulate votes or vote tallies. Why? Because they know they can achieve the same or even better outcomes by manipulating voters instead. 🧵
I wrote about this 5 years ago.

As I said then, changing the vote count in one election would yield limited returns. But convincing voters to doubt the legitimacy of election outcomes for the foreseeable future? That’s a return on investment.

bylinetimes.com/2019/07/26/rus…Image
There is a strange tendency to talk about Russian interference as if the impact must either be direct — i.e. changing vote totals — or nonexistent. But that’s not the reality of how influence and information operations work, which is through subtle & indirect effects.
Read 9 tweets

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