Thread by @EBL2017

Arsenal played Champaign football today in Arteta's new 3-1-6.

Tactically, they outclassed Nottingham Forest. Don't let xG without context or a nervy ending make you think otherwise for a single second.

Below, in an in-depth thread, I assess their performance & future.

THREAD!

Forest's plan was to exclusively play long from goal kicks to battle for duels in the hopes of causing chaos or getting some control that way.

It nearly worked (the Brennan Johnson chance), but even if it did and they went 1-0 up Arsenal likely would have came back & won anyway.

Why? Well, because Forest didn't press at all in settled play either.

Arteta knew this pre-game, though, and that's why he set Arsenal up with the PERFECT game plan to beat Forest.

They attacked with 6 in the last line and defended with 5 defensive transitional monsters.

Forest went long and tried to counter-attack, Arsenal had 5 special defensive quality players ready to nullify each attack.

Forest tried to sit back and defend deep, Arsenal had unstoppable quality, an overload in the last line, & 6 players ready to counterpress across the park.

That, my friends, is a Mikel Arteta masterclass. Call it simple win against mid-table fodder, but all a manager can do is give his team the best possible chance of winning.

Arteta did that today by implementing a new system which also would have surprised Steve Cooper & Forest.

Partey inverted from right back into midfield where he primarily operated as a lone #6 with Timber conservative positionally in the back 3 alongside Saliba and White.

Ahead of them was Rice in the left half space, Havertz central, and Ødegaard in the right half space.

Saka and Martinelli were high & wide as usual with Nketiah in the #9.

The structure created a clear overload against Nottingham Forest's last line as Arsenal attacked with 6 & Forest defended with 5.

This is a tactic coaches like Pep & ten Hag regularly use to break teams down.

Arsenal almost entirely nullified Nottingham Forest for the majority of the game. After half an hour Forest had only completed 13 passes & at half-time Arsenal had 84% of the ball.

They were 2-0 up, probed/counterpressed effectively, & subsequently sustained pressure flawlessly.

However, Nottingham Forest had more xG at half-time which fans are clinging onto to suggest that Arsenal were below par.

No, no, no..

Arsenal controlled the half entirely.

xG is a good indication of performance over the course of a season, but it is often not in one sole game.

Arsenal may not have directly created a lot, but sustained pressure is all about being impossible to counter against, preventing the opposition from getting out, and probing to break them down.

84% possession and 13 opposition passes after 30 mins completed epitomises that..

THAT is the biggest method of chance creation - SUSTAINED PRESSURE.

Not shots from everywhere to rack up xG numbers...

We also have to consider the fact that Arteta played a new system for the first time. That is relevant because he did it specifically to break down Forest.

Forest defend with 5 and don't press high, so Arsenal can afford to not build in a 3-2 all of the time. Instead Arteta took a player out and put him into attack.

That makes complete sense.

But will he do that against other teams who are tactically & qualitatively superior? No.

Why? Because the approach would be too direct, so the dynamics will shift.

I said this in pre-season - Kai Havertz can be used as a #8/#10 against teams like Nottingham Forest who simply sit back and defend.

Why?

Because the build-up responsibilities aren't so important.

However, even when Forest did try to apply pressure to the ball, Declan Rice dropped deep to overload their build-up and offer natural passing in midfield.

Arsenal still built in a 3-2 at times, and that second-phase presence was still in the team to offer control when required.

The performance was flawless tactically, even if it was all a little chaotic towards the end, but it can be very, very difficult to break these teams down.

Just because Arsenal primarily attacked with 6 in the last line doesn't mean they could easily create due to that overload.

Forest still covered the width of the pitch with their 5 defenders, so it was hard for Martinelli and Saka to utilise 1v1's because the wingbacks were already close to them, it was hard for central players to combine because it was so congested, but the balance/structure was TOP.

White, Saliba, Timber, Partey + Rice is as good as a transitional back 5 as you can ask for, but also elite when dealing with long balls from goal kicks.

Rice starting deep and then drifting high also suits him optimally as he can carry and attack space from deep.

Not only that, but Kai Havertz played in his dream role. All he had to do was stick between the lines where he could combine, attack space, interchange, and focus on doing what he does best - providing output.

However, he operated in the most congested area, so it was tough.

Part of what makes fans adore a guy like Ødegaard is because he's aesthetic. Havertz is not, & that's why there is division over the quality of his performance today.

However, that is to be expected. Raumdeuters are not easy on the eye.

They are only rated when they're scoring.

What Havertz offered was positional discipline to offer vertical progression between the lines, dynamic movement to attack space in behind, combination play, interchangeability, phenomenal counterpressing in second ball situations, and a target when Ramsdale decided to go long.

None of it is particularly easy on the eye, but all of it is exactly what's required in the role.

Give Havertz time, and he will produce. There is no doubt.

Also, please don't react flippantly like the masses do when he's not producing output because he's not aesthetic.

Anyway, aside from the individuals, we also have to consider that Arteta made a specific adjustment to beat a specific team. It was not free-flowing, but it is hard to break down a team of 5 defenders, a packed midfield, & sensational outlets.

In most leagues, Forest are top 8..

That is the level of the Premier League, and they are one of the most basic/limited tactical teams in the division!

Listen, I expect Arsenal to flexible as hell this season tactically.

That means there is a huge onus on Arteta to get it right, but 95% of the time he will.

Games against back 5’s that play long, counter, win duels, use their outlets, etc, are always tough, but Arteta's 3-1-6 to created an overload vs their back 5 but also had duel monsters in the last line to manage their counter-attacks and long balls.

The approach was flawless.

If there are minor criticisms that can be applied to the performance it is the lack of intent to score a third goal and the passive settled press in a momentary off-ball lapse,

City, the blueprint for this team, are offended when they lose the ball.

Arsenal need that mindset.

City also pass the ball with intent when winning.

Arsenal's quality in possession was hampered with Tomiyasu coming on for Timber who is quite simply not as press resistant or as effortless in his actions, so that was a blow, but the point stands.

Arteta will demand perfection.

However, what matters is long-term trajectories.

A lack of intent to score *more* and a passive press for a couple of seconds in a 90 minute game are not things to be particularly upset about when considering the overall performance and quality of the tactical plan..

Arteta and Arsenal will adjust a lot this season whilst maintaining staples in their play.

They will primarily attack with 5 & defend with 5 in whatever variation of the 3-2-5 (4-4-2 off the ball) Arteta wants to use, but the 3-1-6 is a great solution against those low blocks 🛑