Thread by @salimfurth

Want to see the most reinvested - and most visibly gentrifying - street in America? Come on a little walk with me. This is going to be a slightly uncomfortable.
🚶🏻🧵

We're going to walk down #KennedySt NW from 13th to North Capitol St, in DC. But don't worry, it's not actually 13 blocks. For a preview, here's the 600 block right now.

And with apologies to @mnolangray, I can't think of another way to do this.
#1207: One row house becomes a sixplex (2018-2020)

@mnolangray #1206: One row house becomes eightplex (2020-2022)

@mnolangray #1205 & 1203: Two row houses razed (2021), but there's no build permit yet. Perhaps the intent is to combine them with a parking lot on Georgia Ave here.

@mnolangray #1202: A daycare adds a second story (2019-2022)

@mnolangray What? You're already tired?? We've only gone about 50 feet! OK, I'll give you a preview of what we're going to be seeing. And we can stop and get lunch now.

Let's cross Georgia Ave and keep going. The house numbers jump from 1202 to 930, but there's only one Kennedy St address in between.
#930: An office building becoming 11 homes (2019 - )

#927 & #925: Two row houses become 22 units (2019-2022).

#918 & #916: A semi-attached pair hasn't become anything yet. Both had pulled several permits, but with different owners, then one was issued an "emergency raze" permit in 2021😬

#917 & 919: Two row houses become 21 units (2019 - ). It's been four years, but these aren't on the market.
In fact, just 1/3 of units that began construction since 2006 are available. The physical transformation is well underway, but the social one is just beginning.

By the way, I didn't check every single property for permits (nor did I peer in the windows). I include those which were obviously new. That's the point: to document the visual experience. We can do displacement statistics another day, without leaving our desks.

#911: Something from before Google streetview becomes 13 homes (2007-2009). This is one of two visible renovations from before 2015.

Back to the hypnotic repeating map, but with years & housing unit permit (and demolition) counts noted. We've reached the green line, walking east.

On demolitions, I've counted each row house as 2 units. A minority had basement apartments. A good number of others had rear stairs, suggesting an upper unit, perhaps unpermitted. Some might have been divided only internally (c.f. @JakeWegmann).

I said this was going to make people uncomfortable, and of course nobody wants to "Like" displacement. So ground rules: For this thread, "Like" just means you think I did a good job with the photo. Speaking of displacement...
#839: 23 homes become 31 homes (2018-2021)

Part of the 800 block shows us this urban form in its finished state. Five row homes become a twelveplex, an eightplex, a sixplex, and two fourplexes (2015-2023)

#826, which was just a void in the 2022 streetview image above, is coming along.

#815 – 817: Two row houses becoming 30 units (2020 – )

#809-813: A vacant lot becomes ~38 subsidized senior apartments (2020 - 2021). In 2009, a derelict 16-unit apartment building and row house were demolished with no permits to replace. The city took the site.

#800: A row house becomes a sixplex (2019-2020)

@ScottRobertsDC I'd love to get @jenny_schuetz or Leah Brooks's take on this - they wrote about the general failure of normal planning & zoning as a guide to development in DC.
furmancenter.org/files/Does_Hou…

@danielmwarwick @ScottRobertsDC The other big thing that isn't obvious from all these front shots is how deeeeeeep the lots are, which allows a ton of floor area growth within a narrow lot.

DAY 2: We move on to the 700 block, which has had much less redevelopment than either adjacent block. Until 2022, this was the only big residential change.
#721: One row house becomes a tenplex (2018-2020)

It's also the commercial core of this part of Kennedy St, although every block has at least some stores. You can glimpse the most popular new Kennedy St business at the right: Everyday Sundae!
715: A hair salon becoming an eightplex (2022 - )

#712, 710, 714: A music school and a hauling service become 30 condos and a shiny new music school (2022 - ). Great value capture by a legacy business here. Writeup by @CheeseCip: https://t.co/HnTHCaiUeCpetworthnews.org/blog/new-sewell

@CheeseCip BREAKING NEWS: In the few days since I began prep work on this thread, a new construction permit was posted - the only one I've seen dated 2023.
#708: A business becomes "5 stories dwelling units plus cellar", so maybe 10 or 15 units? (2023-)

@CheeseCip This visual chronicle doesn't account for the constant ebb and flow of storefront turnover, rebranding, investment, decay, and abandonment. What will come next to #701?
(Background, again from @CheeseCip: It's been "Imaginary Pizza" since 2017 or so: ) https://t.co/zipY8WDJsrpetworthnews.org/blog/imaginary…

Now we're crossing 7th St, and entering the busiest (and longest) block for redevelopment (#500-699). The north (odd-numbered) side of the street flipped earlier, but a handful of large-site redevelopments on the south side will balance it out.

#623: A row house becoming a tenplex (2021 - )

@MarketUrbanism #615: One row house becoming an eightplex (2019 - ), with a detour through a failed pop-up (2014-2019). Even my most YIMBY readers (@cmac322, @Queens4Evah, @czechnologist75) can appreciate the nuisance of a house spending a half decade half complete.

611: A row house becoming a tenplex (2021 - )

#609: A church becomes retail, an office, and four homes (2015-2017).
It looks like they've had trouble keeping the retail occupied. This would be one of the more attractive pop-up concepts,@etbadabim, but the angular first-floor roof and curvy top together are a bit comical.

@etbadabim 618-608: Three row houses and a car wash becoming 77 apartments (2022 - ). This is the biggest new development of the whole mile.

@etbadabim #603: A doctor’s office becomes a fiveplex (2016-2017).

@etbadabim Unlike on the 800 block, the 500-600s block has a sawtooth pattern that seems like an unintended added hassle. (Move into one of these & expect construction soon on one side or the other. Or both). 🤓

#531: A row house becomes a tenplex (2019 – 2021). (531 is just one house away from 603)

#528: A church becomes a tenplex (2017-2018). But why are all the utilities in front? This clearly has alley access like the others.

#525: A row house becomes a #PerfectSix (2016-2020). (I had to give @PlanningAutumn a shoutout in a long thread of buildings).
Also note the failed popup on #523 - that was permitted in 2014 and is still there almost 9 years later.

#521: A row house becomes a fiveplex (2017-2019)

#513: A row house becoming (?) a tenplex (hopefully) (2021 - )

#507: A row house becomes an eightplex (2017-2019)

#505: An AC business becoming a tenplex (2020 - )

That brings us to 5th St and the original Target 🎯

I'll pause the walk here, but @andersem is right: you all deserve some context. Kennedy Street is pretty unique in its part of the city, and the story isn't about zoning.

https://twitter.com/andersem/status/1691517349080547328

@andersem First, the zoning: Kennedy was zoned C-2-A and the comprehensive 2016 rezoning renamed that zone MU-4; the main provisions are identical (but maybe @danielmwarwick can tell me of quiet changes?). Key provisions:

https://twitter.com/danielmwarwick/status/1691293867893534720

@andersem @danielmwarwick I'm unsure what the parking requirements are. At baseline, mixed use & multifamily zones require "1 parking space per 3 dwelling units in excess of 4 units." So a tenplex would need 2; with alley parking, that's not hard. Here's #603:

@andersem @danielmwarwick But the bigger picture is the social change. Since I lived in this area (2012) and before, the Kennedy Street Crew has given the street a reputation for danger and drugs.

@andersem @danielmwarwick I mentioned this project to a church friend, age 20, whose life matches a lot of "ghetto" stereotypes. Her impression of Kennedy St is still that "they're crazy up there, it's not safe".

@andersem @danielmwarwick The local business owners have pushed hard for city reinvestment and change. The city did a big "revitalization" planning exercise. The new brick paving, bulb-out intersections, speed tables, and bike racks show up in many of my photos.
planning.dc.gov/publication/ke…

@andersem @danielmwarwick Six years into "revitalization", in 2014, a local business owner could still complain in @ggwash of "shuttered storefronts" and city neglect.
ggwash.org/view/33845/cit…

@andersem @danielmwarwick @ggwash At the same time, the broader area - zoned for rowhouses but not multifamily - was steadily gentrifying. I recall looking at houses around then and being shocked that Petworth (1/2 mile south of Kennedy) was only slightly cheaper than neighborhoods of longstanding affluence.

@andersem @danielmwarwick @ggwash By 2021, Kennedy was suffering from dual problems: continued crime and incompetent/irresponsible/impecunious developers. Redevelopment's costs had arrived, but not its benefits.

https://t.co/VQlsmEDvMUthewash.org/2021/11/30/pet…
petworthnews.org/blog/vacant-bl…

@andersem @danielmwarwick @ggwash A @PoPville thread in 2022 mostly shows that YIMBYism had already arrived: the balance of commenters (like my followers) are instinctively pro-housing.
popville.com/2022/03/dc-ken…

@andersem @danielmwarwick @ggwash @PoPville And this year, high schoolers from Duke Ellington School of the Arts made a 5-minute documentary about gentrification on Kennedy St. The subjects are ambivalent: "Some good come with it, some bad come with it."

@andersem @danielmwarwick @ggwash @PoPville One thing I think is important is not to stereotype who will live in all these new buildings. Young white professionals? Some, sure. But I'd guess the "typical" tenant will end up being a working Black mom. Just a guess - but don't jump to the obvious conclusion.

Circling back to zoning, @andersem: Local commenters have noted that this is an indirect zoning effect. If the whole area allowed multifamily, this wouldn't be concentrated in one place.

https://t.co/TZ4jV8QLhd

https://twitter.com/DCNewLiberals/status/1691233499812921344

https://twitter.com/td_dion/status/1691203864823828481

@andersem But that's what the DC has *planned* and intended - and maybe it's actually better. An entire built-up block looks pretty cool & urban. One alone is a "middle finger" (@jblumgart's photo via @ggwash).
https://t.co/LvB5FdAo9gggwash.org/view/81599/wha…

@andersem @jblumgart @ggwash If we value things like cohesive built form and front-porch culture, or if development is disruptive, maybe the "pull the bandaid off" approach is better? I'm for upzoning as a matter of principle, but this is a case where *planning worked*!

https://twitter.com/MusserRyan/status/1691357267222790145

BACK TO THE WALK!!
#429-431: Two fourplexes becoming 37 homes (2021 - )
(But last one for the day)

#419-423: Two fourplexes becoming 33 homes (2018 - )

#414: A fourplex becoming 22 units (2021 - )

The 400 block has been slow to transform - one that began in 2018 is finally coming together above. But the block also has one of the OG reinvestments:
#408: A fourplex becomes a six (?) plex (2006-2008)

#406: A fourplex becoming 20 units (2021 - ). I actually missed taking a photo of this, so this is 2022's street view. It doesn't appear to be on the market yet, though.

We're almost done with the walk, and we've reached a watershed point, 4th St. Nothing was permitted east of here until 2021. The eastern section is defined by 3 major roads & their thru-traffic. Crossing the X intersection requires two walk signals. Is this even still Kennedy St?

#313: A laundromat becoming 24 homes (2021 - )

Now, across the New Hampshire Ave and Missouri Ave "X"...
#201: A mixed use building becoming 9 homes (2021 - ). I couldn't tell what, if anything, was in here before 2021.

The 100s block is the only block on this mile stretch that still has no redevelopment. It's got a CVS, a fraternity HQ, two storefront churches, a daycare, a few other small businesses, and some 3-story multifamily housing.

#30: A bible school becoming 16 homes (2021 - )

#22: A storefront church becomes 50 homes (2022 - )

Correction a few posts up: it's Kansas and Missouri avenues that intersect at Kennedy (#BorderWar); New Hampshire meets Kennedy at North Capital in a catawampus "X".

JUST ONE MORE PROPERTY TO GO! I don't know if you've been keeping score, but through 2022, I count 675 added, 115 lost (counting each rowhouse as 2 units).

Most of those units are still under construction, and some might not be completed given the rise in competition and interest rate spike since they began.

But we've still got one more unit to go! So far, every redevelopment has added residential space and units. But the very last one doesn't:
#14: An eightplex and two retail stores becoming the main office for DC's homeless service nonprofit (2022 - )

@MoldyBasil @Queens4Evah My instinct - maybe wrong - is that if you're gutting, you might as well add space. And the people who will tackle a gut-reno are equipped to do construction. But regular homeowners can be their own GC for modest renovations.

@MoldyBasil @Queens4Evah The housing model in my head gives a sort of odd result: steady upkeep prevents major transformation, since you'd always be destroying a lot of value. The biggest transformations come via neglect followed by opportunity.

THANKS FOR WALKING WITH ME! I've really loved all your comments and questions.

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