Thread by @kamilkazani

Daily reminder

1. Complex weapons such as the WMD/delivery systems include precise parts

2. Production of precise parts relies on subtractive processes

3. Which had overwhelmingly relied on the manual control even in 1991

4. But have been radically computerized since then

https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/1691795488893186408

5. As the production of precise parts switched from the manual to computer control, the labor capable of producing precise parts (-> weaponry) manually was lost

6. The tactic knowledge has been lost, too

7. Which cements transition and makes it absolutely and 100% irreversible

8. No military industrial complex in the world can produce precise parts at a consistent quality other than based on the computer control

9. That includes every military industry including Russia, China, N. Korea, Iran

10. Iran may be the only one who even tries to obfuscate it

11. Supply chain is controlled by a handful of countries in Western Europe and developed East Asia

12. That includes machines produced (or “produced”) in Russia, etc

13. E.g. Russia-produced machines invariably operate with Siemens, Fanuc, or Heidenhain CNC, Siemens PLC etc

14. Domestic production = assembling machines from the European/Japanese components

15. There is almost zero Russian components in Russia-produced machines

16. (Except for beddings, casings, some non precision bearings, etc)

17. Everything requiring precision is imported

18. As the manual labor that the Soviet war production relied upon no longer exists, Russia ended up absolutely dependent upon the computer controlled equipment

2. Putin’s military buildup has been based upon the mass import of computer controlled equipment from the US allies

20. Consistently, the Russian military manufacturing base consists of:

First and foremost, Western European
Then, Japanese, Taiwanese and Korean
And to a far lesser degree North American equipment

These are the machines that secure Russian capacity to produce weaponry

21. Let's look at the top-20 machining centres suppliers 2000-2021. This is a not bad approximation for the Russian military manufacturing base structure. In other words, what machines does the Russian military industry work with

W. Europe + developed E. Asia

China is small

22. China is a catching development producer on an early stage of its learning progress. It is developing rapidly, but there is an awfully long road to go

23. Which cannot be passed otherwise than by learning from and cooperating with Europe + Japan

24. I will elaborate later

Q&A

Q: What are the practical implications of the Russian military manufacturing base consisting of the European + developed East Asian machines?

A: First, when you buy a machine you become permanently dependent upon the continuous supply of the spare parts and expendables

Consequently, your capacity to produce weaponry will be absolutely dependent upon your capacity to secure the timely and uninterrupted supplies of spare parts and expendables, primarily from the Western European and developed East Asian producers

And Russia *has* secured them

More specifically, your capacity to produce weaponry will be absolutely dependent upon the supply of spare parts and expendables of the *guaranteed quality*

Consistent quality of the hardware compensates for the very, very uneven quality of your labor

Every experiment creates a potential point of failure. Considering the very uneven quality of your workforce, any attempts for "creativity" will fuck up your production base in no time

Ergo, you cannot experiment. You *must* acquire parts & expendables of the guaranteed quality

For this reason, cutting the ongoing an uninterrupted supply of new machines as well as the spare parts and expendables for the existing machines from the U.S. allies is of primary importance for undermining the Russian war efforts and the capacities for the nuclear blackmail

Q: And how can we do it?

A: Sanction the entire Russian machine tool industry, including:

1) Producers
2) Distributors
3) Service & maintenance companies

In practical terms, it may be very difficult to distinguish between 1, 2 and 3. So there is no need to. Sanction them all

Q: Is there anything else we can do?

A: Yes. The Russian military production heavily relies upon the ongoing support and maintenance by the Western hardware producers/software providers. This is the major problem that has not been addressed anywhere adequately

Buying a machine tool is not like buying a pen. It is very often more like buying a Tesla. Which means that the consumer (Russian military plant) is not necessarily granted the full control over the machine. The producer very often keeps the back, or rather front, doors to it

As Russian capacity for producing weaponry is absolutely reliant upon the foreign CAD - CAM - CNC, it is necessary to cut the ongoing support, maintenance and updates by the Western companies

Start with abolishing this imbecile (or cunning) exemption in the EU sanction regime

To summarise:

- To produce/maintain weaponry you need precise parts
- That Russia can no longer produce manually
- Making it absolutely dependent upon the CAD-CAM-CNC technology

It is the ongoing Western supplies, support and maintenance that keeps Russia a "nuclear power"

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