Thread by @magi_jay

I have a suspicion. Not a prediction. Or maybe it's a prediction but I won't frame it as such, because I like to be cautious. The basic fundamentals of American political life have shifted and will continue to shift into 2024. All in the Democrats' favor.

It's Roe. It's the clear lunacy of the GOP. It's the conservative court making multiple anti-left decisions at once, thus tying these same decisions to the conservatives who appointed them. It's also climate. And then Generation Z. And how Gen Z interacts with all of the above.

I'll write more about this later, but I think those who follow me do know I try to be cautious. I am still being cautious & I have felt this way for a while. The feeling becomes stronger. I believe I am right. The fundamentals are changing & it's of descriptive benefit to say so

I almost think it has to do less w/ Trump indictments than it does w/ these interconnected things: 1. Dobbs, 2. climate change, 3. Generation Z's investment in both.
And, for the first time in my lifetime, SCOTUS linking itself so incontrovertibly against several issues at once

I'm not sure how else to say this, but I do not think that disaffected youth voting will be as it has been in other elections, like 2000 or 2016. No matter how "old" Joe Biden is. It's not going to be the same.

Again, no real predictions. We all must vote. No complacency. But can't we feel, for a moment, not complacent, but power? Can we not recognize the objective state of the other sides' weakness while also committing to action? I think we can. They are weak. We are strong.

I am not complacent. They can still win. They are too dangerous to take with a grain of salt. But I feel it--this shift in the political atmosphere--and instead of saying, "Oh maybe we who'll have a Dem primary 😭" maybe we should just start saying, "we're stronger than they are"

This I will say:

Empirical facts: Republicans are weaker than they should be; Dems are stronger, relatively

Subjective impressions: Something is happening. A huge cultural political shift; climate+abortion are drivers.

+ Generation Z.

Democrats & affiliates can be scared because we have reason to be scared. But we can also accurately describe, even in our fear, the strategic position of the other side. And the most accurate description of that other side is that they are weak.

I will add that the more we descriptively portray this clear weakness, the greater the weakness will become. Why do we keep calling these weak, weak, weak people strong?

https://twitter.com/magi_jay/status/1691988322569068970

Look at Ron DeSantis. Did he, prior to the November 2022 election, ever display strength? No. People just wanted him to be strong. And that worked. Until more people came into contact with him.

I propose we use this lesson to address the rest of the GOP.