Thread by @InvertTheWing

How Ange Postecoglou should lineup vs. Manchester United, the one crucial factor which will decide the entire match, and the weaknesses that can be exploited.

Pre-Match Analysis.

THREAD

You know, it’s always fun to look back on my predictions, especially now I have them physically written. It’s like a diary. And I can say my Brentford one was spot on, not sounding arrogant, but it makes me feel better about myself and my tactical understanding of the game. I predicted a draw or loss, the match was drawn. I said Brentford will play a back 5, even though they lined up with a back 4 for the entirety of the preseason, they played a back 5. I said they will exploit the lack of width in-possession, they exploited the lack of possession, and is how they got that very good chance Mbeumo missed towards the end of the 2nd half.

So now, I will attempt to break down the Manchester United game. And as a note, this not how I think Postecoglou will line, albeit I will touch on that, but rather how he should to maximise his odds of a result.

In my opinion, Manchester United have the best midfield in the league. They play primarily counter attacking football, and their midfield is setup perfectly for such. Casemiro, one of the best ball winners in the Premier League, Mason Mount one of the best pressers in the Premier League, and Bruno Fernandes, one of the best creators in the Premier League. Ultimately, these 3 cogs are the cogs you need for counter attacking football to be pure flowing.

There is a common misconception with a player like Mason Mount, a player that is largely misprofiled. He should not be recognised for his attacking contribution (which is just a bonus), but rather his defensive contribution. He excels as an 8, or in a double pivot, something which he can perform with Casemiro.

The dynamic is very simple, Mount’s immense pressing abilities will look to suffocate Tottenham in possession, and attempt to force an error, with Casemiro looking to win the ball, releasing it to Bruno Fernandes who will then likely play through to Rashford who has blistering place and can exploit Tottenham’s players being out of possession.

Obviously, this is a very simplified version of what will happen, but the dynamic is not very different. That is how Manchester United will primarily look to score goals. This is the crux of how United will look to generate their attacks, and obviously, this is what Postecoglou needs to focus on countering, so how will he achieve that?

Well, the idea is actually very, very simple. Keep possession. Postecoglou does not need to change his tactics significantly in such a game, but rather instruct his squad to be a lot safer, and less direct. I am a huge fan of Lo Celso, but he is a player who is simply more “attacking”, and is a player that should look to open tight defenses, whilst also providing defensive contribution.

Although Manchester United also enjoy playing off the counter, their defense isn’t played too tightly, rather the crux of their counter attacking prowess comes frmo winning the midfield duels.

As a result, you need to focus on maximizing ball retention. You need players who will be press resistant, and for that reason, I Ange should choose the midfield pairing of Sarr-Bissouma. I would argue they are easily your best midfielders in terms of retaining possession.

When it comes to inverting, as Ange likes, versus this Manchester United setup it becomes a difficult dilemma. Emerson in midfield essentially offers an extra man, providing an extra pathway for a pass when pressed, easing the pressure.

However, as I mentioned in my pre match Brentford thread, the inverting leads to a big defensive vulnerability in the wide areas. And for a team like Manchester United that plays off the counter, if the ball is won in the middle, it is very likely a goal.

So the question is, do you take this risk? And I would say yes.

But I have to emphasize, there is a lot of pressure on your midfield keeping possession in these congested areas. And ultimately, that is really what I think this whole result will come down to. How well you can keep possession. Because for a team like Manchester United and how they set up tactically, if you lose possession in such an area, they will catch your full back out of possession and target the left flank.

The key player to watch is Bruno Fernandes. He will play with complete freedom, and thus, be a big pain to mark. Out of possession, it is very likely Bruno will drop deep, he will look to be in an area where he can receive the ball if possession is won. But on top of this, Bruno will also look to aid Casemiro and Mount by pressing himself.

However, in possession and when United are not looking to play off the counter, Bruno can drift anywhere. He’ll drift towards the right flank, he’ll make runs into the box, he’ll stay deep, you don’t know where he’s going to go. And basically every attack generated by Manchester United that isn’t off the counter all starts with Bruno as the centrepiece.

That’s why, you need Bissouma to man mark him. If he drifts to the right, Bissouma has to follow him. Left, Bissouma has to follow. Runs into the box, Bissouma has to follow him. But doesn’t that leave the midfield exploited? Yes. That’s why when Bissouma is dragged out of possession, Sarr has to drop deeper, Maddison has to track back and help out defensively, whilst Kulusevski also has to drift centrally in aim to cover the potentially lost man.

And another thing that makes this whole thing a headache is the fact I think Martial will start, so it is very likely that throughout the game we can see Bruno-Martial alternating throughout, so again, good marking from Bissouma and co will be absolutely key to not let United generate any attacks off the counter.

The final way United are able to generate threat is through Luke Shaw’s phenomenal delivery. Admittedly, United are not strong aerially, but this is still something that you should watch out for.

Now, as for Tottenham, how should they set up?

I have already touched on Emerson, and why he should be the starting right back, and the centre-back pairing speaks for itself, however, let me talk about the Left Back situation.

Will Ange start Ben Davies on Saturday? Probably not. Should he? Yes. I thought Udogie had a great game vs. Brentford on the weekend, and he should be starting nearly every game. But I have touched on this several times, retaining possession is key. Davies is simply better at that.

He will match up vs Antony and Wan Bissaka, both of who have absolutely 0 attacking threat. Whoever starts in that left back spot won’t struggle defensively. However, we know Udogie is more creative going forward, which could pose a threat, especially vs. someone like Wan Bissaka. Hence, my preference for Davies, as he is just less naturally direct, which is something that would suit such a game.

Midfield, I have already touched on, Bissouma-Sarr-Maddison.

Now, let’s talk about the attack. What I want is Perisic-Son-Kulusevski, but what we’ll get is Son-Richarlison-Kulusevski. And frankly, this cannot keep happening. The way Postecoglou is instructing Son to play does not play to his strengths, and Richarlison simply is not good. I’m not going to sugarcoat it, and I know you love my optimism, but I think under no circumstance, Richarlison should start. Even if he scores today, it won’t change my mind. He’s an average player, and impact sub at best.

But the reality is, this is a dilemma for Postecoglou. You cannot bench a player of Richarlison’s interclub stature. If you lose a strong dressing room presence into the season by benching him after 1 game, then it will set a terrible atmosphere already. He was bought for 50 Million, he joined expecting to be the starting striker after Harry Kane left. Harry Kane left, and you bench him after 1 game? That is a recipe for disaster.

I don't’ blame Ange for starting him, and obviously when Richarlison drops bad performance after bad performance, he will have a justification to drop him, so the impact on the dressing room will not be as significant. But what’s best for all parties is just to sell him, and buy a replacement.

So, let’s talk about how I would lineup and why.

Son should start as the 9. I have spoken about this before, but a lot of wingers go through the transformation to a 9 arc. I think this is Son’s time. There is no reason I would start him here in particular tactically, but rather his competition is terrible. That doesn’t change how I feel about Son in a 9 role, he would absolutely excel and put up the best numbers in his career. He would play a similar role to Furuhashi did at Celtic, just upgraded in every attribute. Lightning pace, the best finishing in the world, and good with both feet.

Perisic on the wing would match up well vs. Wan Bissaka. Wan Bissaka is the best 1v1 defender in the world, no one else comes close, but Perisic is incredibly versatile. If needed he can attempt a take on, but the thing that is most crucial about Perisic is his pinpoint delivery on his crosses. He doesn’t have to rely on beating his man to be a threat down that left hand side.

And this is what I’d like to touch on a bit more, Manchester United are as bad as Tottenham aerially. Their attack is not aerially good, their defense is aerially mediocre, and don’t even get me started on their midfield. And whilst, yes, Tottenham are also very poor aerially, Manchester United’s lack of aerial dominance is still something you should attempt to take advantage of if need be. Perisic helps with this.

And that’s why I think holding onto the ball is just a crucial aspect in this game, no need to be impatient. Either you keep possession, or you play for the foul in an area where you can float a dangerous Maddison free kick or Perisic corner into the box. Perisic and Maddison have some of the best set piece delivery in the world, so utilising this by playing for corners and free kicks versus an aerially weak Manchester United side will be a surefire way to maximise your odds of winning.

And finally, Kulusevski, admittedly, will have a hard time matching up vs. Shaw going forward. However, just like Perisic, he also has the ability to fire that lethal cross into the box. But despite how I feel about him offensively in such a matchup, I think his ability to retain possession is something that will absolutely be crucial in this game. He doesn’t need to attempt to beat his man like he already does, rather just look to progress the ball, make simple passes, and work the balls into dangerous areas, simultaneously whilst resisting the press.

So what is my prediction? I think it simply comes down to how well Tottenham are able to retain possession, and the midfield battle. Out of sheer individual quality, I will expect Tottenham to pull through, especially being at home, but a draw wouldn’t be a surprising result. This game is a game Postecoglou cannot win on his own without significantly changing his tactics, formations, and personnel, but rather a game that will need his players to keep calm under pressure in possession. Even if the players follow Postecoglou’s tactics word for word, it will still depend on how well they are able to resist the press of the Manchester United midfield.

The Lineup that Postecoglou should go with:

Vicario
Emerson-Romero-VDV-Davies
Bissouma-Sarr-Maddison
Kulusevski-Son-Perisic

The lineup that Postecoglou will choose:

Same as last week, with Sarr over Skipp.