Moon rise here at the station. As the Moon clears the trees, an "Emergency" was declared by @roscosmos for #Luna25 as it failed to perform an orbital adjustment burn. Lets discuss how this could affect the mission. 🧵⬇️
A telegram post by @roscosmos provides limited information of the status of #Luna25. Apparently, the spacecraft failed to adjust its orbit as planned.⬇️
Russian controllers now need to troubleshoot and fix the issue. This is complicated by their lack of a global deep space communications network. So recovery efforts will be limited to when the Moon is visible over Russia due to their geopolitical misadventures... ⬇️
The Moon is heading south quite literally.The Moon's orbit is inclined to the Earth and causes it to appear high in the sky in northern latitudes for half the month and the very low in the sky the other part of the month. This will further reduce Russia's time to fix the issue.⬇️
The Moon is still rotating under #luna25 and the Russian controllers have only one communications window left before they planned to land. So the clock is ticking...Otherwise they need to delay and pick an secondary landing site. ⬇️
We spacecraft have emergencies they typically enter some sort of 'safe mode'. Assuming #Luna25's issue constitutes that it could have turned on its TT&C beacon and be transmitting constantly. Finally allowing independent observation of the mission. ⬇️
As noted above there still to my knowledge been any public and independent confirmation of #Luna25 activities. 🛑
Thus far I have no independent observations of the mission to share. That is not without extensive trying to observe it.
So why am I not detecting anything? 🧵⬇️
#Luna25 was launched into a trajectory that is largely only visible on Earth in daylight. Secondly, that trajectory is not exactly known. I have calculated one based on the launch timing and the scant public info shared and used GMAT to find a good direct trajectory. ⬇️
The trajectory isn't arbitrary. You need to carefully line things up to the extreme to get anywhere close to the Moon. So it constrains where to look. As we're looking into the glare of the Sun, we need radio. ITU records report two bands, X and Ku-band. But wait...⬇️
A follower asked if #Chandrayaan3 could land on the Moon before #Luna25. The short answer is maybe.
As we'll see in this thread changing a plan as complex as landing on the Moon is not a great idea.🧵⬇️
#Chandrayaan3 is presently largely locked into an orbital plane above the Moon. What that means is that it needs to wait for the Moon to rotate under-neigh it to reach the primary landing site that @isro has painstakingly planned to land at. ⬇️
Therefore, if you want to rush to get to the landing site it's too late. Therefore, you need to pick a new landing site under up coming terrain that may be suitable and also change the mission plan. Recalculate, adjust and then execute. ⬇️
Despite my better judgement, I did a TLE update on the Doppler data. The problem with TLEs in these types of orbits is they degenerate fast as the model is not designed to deal with long periods et. al. 🧵⬇️
Small changes in the data or the fit has profound effects on the TLE and the orbital model. But they are convenient. So I offer a couple of TLEs to aid anyone wishing to hunt for #Chandrayaan3. NO WARRANTY offered 😉, look with WIDE field... ⬇️
Data fit to released orbital parameters:
1 57320U 23213.95526600 .00000000 00000-0 00000-0 0 04
2 57320 21.4000 180.4625 9648325 12.6358 39.3505 0.10345282 04
# 20230801.30-20230802.61, 53466 measurements, 0.005 kHz rms⬇️
I've recently renewed an observing campaign on #TIANWEN1. The orbit hasn't changed so an aerobrake test claimed for late 2022 has not occurred yet. In preparation for observing an aerobraking manoeuvre I thought it would be interesting to study past missions that did one. 🧵⬇️
Aerobraking is used to allow a spacecraft to lower its apopasis by using a planet's atmosphere to decelerate the spacecraft as it passes through the tenuous upper atmosphere of the planet at periapsis at just the right altitude as not to cook the spacecraft and max. drag. ⬇️
#TIANWEN1 orbit remains unchanged based on period measurements.
T=25482s,
a=8898km. So no aerobrake test yet.
Neuquén ground station apparently attempted to lock to the spacecraft last night and failed. News reports of orbiter having communications issues. 🧵⬇️
This zoomed in Doppler plot of #TIANWEN1's signal during the anomalous lock attempt from yesterday is depicted below. Neuquén ground station appears to be using uplink Doppler compensation but is out of sync with the actual orbit of the spacecraft. ⬇️
Uplink Doppler compensation (UDC) is used by a ground station to place the uplinked signal at the spacecraft at a constant signal. It does this by 'ramping' the signal it transmits to match the 1-way Doppler to the spacecraft. ⬇️
The R/B of the Yunhai 1-03 mission appears to have suffered a breakup event. The plane of the orbit is nicely visible in the evening in the Northern hemisphere. Observers could look for debris by observing along the R/B plane and looking early.
OBJECT B [54236, 2022-151B] 🧵
The irony is the satellite Yunhai 1-03 is replacing was itself hit by another satellite. Goes to show you that space junk at these orbital altitudes is not a good thing. space.com/china-yunhai-1…
Look as soon as possible if you plan too before it disperses too much.