NEW: we need to talk about the dire state of British transport infrastructure.
Of the 52 UK cities with 250k+ people, only 8 (15%) have a tram or metro.
In France & Germany it’s 80%, Poland is on 60%.
Even *American* cities are better served, and the US hates public transit!
It gets worse.
US cities are poorly served by public transit, too car centric, but at least you CAN drive to/around them.
Euro cities (+ London) are the inverse: a pain to drive in, but great public transport.
Other UK cities are screwed: 💩 public transport AND bad road infra
European cities (+ London) have their successful transport model.
Even as someone who thinks the US is insanely car-centric and this has huge negative externalities, the US transport model does also do its job.
Most British cities outside of London are being failed by contrast.
Why?
There are many reasons, including how British government has prevented any of its regions/cities (apart from London!) from running things themselves, but another is this:
It costs more to build public transport infrastructure in the UK than ~anywhere else in the world (!)
This is true from big rail projects like HS2, to trams and metro, to less glamorous (that’s right, trams are glamorous 💅) but equally vital processes like electrifying UK railway lines.
According to research from @BritainRemade, Madrid built 47 miles of new underground lines for half the cost of extending one London Tube line by 10 miles.
In France, Besançon built a tramway for £29m/mile. Manchester's Second City Crossing tram extension cost £252m/mile.
@Sam_Dumitriu has a startling and comprehensive run-down here of quite how expensive this stuff has become in Britain (and the US), and the many factors that had led to this point
One thing that has contributed is good old fashioned Nimbyism.
Objections create delays, call for expensive (and almost never useful) consultations, thousands of pages of costly environmental impact statements, and often result in re-routing roads and rail at huge cost.
And the best part?
Quite often, the very same people who devote themselves to tirelessly campaigning over noise or aesthetics, end up saying "you know what actually it was fine" 🙃
One study found that Nimbyism directly adds huge cost to transport infrastructure projects by causing routes to be made longer and fiddlier to accommodate local objections over environmental impact
This adds millions, and then people acknowledge that actually it didn’t matter 🤦♂️
Ultimately, British people and British cities outside of London are getting a rough deal, this is constraining British productivity, and it’s all due in significant part to Nimbyism and our exceptional transport infrastructure costs.
For all the talk of a general fall in births, the drop is overwhelmingly driven by people on the left having fewer kids.
By ceding the topic of family and children to the right, progressives risk ushering in a more conservative world.
There’s something of a paradox at play here.
On the one hand, pro-natalism often implies constraining individual liberty and setting back women’s progress. As such, the left’s aversion to worrying about birth rates is perfectly natural.
But: the consequence of this emerging ideological slant in birth rates is that each successive generation gets nudged rightwards, increasing the likelihood that conservative politicians (who want to constrain individual liberty and set back women’s progress) get elected.
NEW: Is the internet changing our personalities for the worse?
Conscientiousness and extroversion are down, neuroticism up, with young adults leading the charge.
This is a really consequential shift, and there’s a lot going on here, so let’s get into the weeds 🧵
First up, personality analysis can feel vague, and you might well ask why it even matters?
On the first of those, the finding of distinct personality traits is robust. This field of research has been around for decades and holds up pretty well, even across cultures.
On the second, studies consistently find personality shapes life outcomes.
In fact, personality traits — esp conscientiousness and neuroticism — are stronger predictors of career success, divorce and mortality than someone’s socio-economic background or cognitive abilities.
There’s been a lot of discussion lately about rising graduate unemployment.
I dug a little closer and a striking story emerged:
Unemployment is climbing among young graduate *men*, but college-educated young women are generally doing okay.
In fact, young men with a college degree now have the same unemployment rate as young men who didn’t go to college, completely erasing the graduate employment premium.
Whereas a healthy premium remains for young women.
What’s going on?
At first glance, this looks like a case of the growing masses of male computer science graduates being uniquely exposed to the rapid adoption of generative AI in the tech sector, and finding jobs harder to come by than earlier cohorts.
The number of people travelling from Europe to the US in recent weeks has plummeted by as much as 35%, as travellers have cancelled plans in response to Trump’s policies and rhetoric, and horror stories from the border.
Denmark saw one of the steepest declines, in an indication that anger over Trump’s hostility towards Greenland may be contributing to the steep drop-off in visitor numbers.
Corporate quotes are usually pretty dry, but the co-founder of major travel website Kayak wasn’t mincing his words: